Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/6/2022 12:30

#Lowtrawler, you make a valid point on the IRR, but consider Yanfolila repaid all the mine build debt in 4 years there so this had very similar 25% IRR..

[polaris] 14/6/2022 10:36

The Pasofino announcement gives more information on cost sensitivity and also some background on the infrastructure, or lack thereof.

There is a requirement for considerable upgrade of the road from Plazon Junction...that's 40 km of road upgrade necessary to ship all build components and then to service for tanker movement for the proposed power using LNG arriving from Greenville. Most of existing roads are gravel-based, this is no highway in the sense we are used to in the UK.

There is no utility grid and so a local power generation site is required, which will be mix of LNG and PV. It'll require leasing a storage facility for the port and a dedicated transport fleet, subject to the impact of weather - see roads above.

There is value in the project but it is way beyond anything that HUM can deliver on a realistic timescale. Best option, IMO, is to realise any value now to support existing projects and aim to keep some NSR or small free carry. We will know soon enough what the wider market thinks of Pasofino DFS and whether anyone is interested in taking it forward.

[plat hunter] 14/6/2022 10:27

Seriously... it's a 1700 assumed pog and only 83% grade recovery against a track record of consistent 92-95% recoveries.Absolutely clueless. 93% recovery is equal to an additional 200 million bah ha hahahabah

[kinbasket] 14/6/2022 10:17

LT,

100% agree

I had a quick look at the sensitivities. A small rise in Cap costs and or AISC and the project is questionable.

I wouldn't proceed if it was my decision.

But high-ups in small cap mining don't make money mining minerals they make money mining shareholders.

[plat hunter] 14/6/2022 10:10

Come off it Lt... Liberia is an established jurisdiction, has it's own ports highway infrastructure and not to mention that both deposits are only 4km away and can be served by a single central processing plant.We all know what you're doing and it's boring. If you prefer to be all in on land locked african countries with no legitimate rule than RSG might be worth considering.

[lowtrawler] 14/6/2022 10:03

Some really useful information in the full Pasofino version, including financial sensitivities and analysis of recovery rates.

I get that HUM and VEIN want everyone to concentrate on the opportunities, we also see some of that coming out in the BB discussion. However, this is Liberia, in a rainforest with no nearby utilities and likely hostile artisan miners. What percentage return would you want for such an investment knowing that any returns will be at least 5 years away? Some of us might be happy with 23% but if costs are 20% higher - would we be happy with less than 20%? What is the minimum after tax IRR we would be happy with for this investment and are we happy HUM would be able to deliver that as a minimum?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/6/2022 09:55

#sleveen, I have added that to the expected news flow.. :o)

Dugbe DFS - delivered 13.06.2022
Reserves update expected in Q2-2022
HUM 51% of VEIN - tbc
HUM/VEIN/ESAN Dugbe strategy - tbc
Q2 operations update - mid July
H1 financials - late August

[sleveen] 14/6/2022 09:36

You're welcome :-)

We await the reserves updates.

[creditcrunchies] 14/6/2022 09:34

The disaster of this stock continues from 200p to 0 coming soon

[dickbush] 14/6/2022 09:18

Many thanks,sleveen.

[sleveen] 14/6/2022 07:20

Pasafino version:

[plat hunter] 14/6/2022 07:01

Ha ha ha...Famous last words

[lowtrawler] 14/6/2022 00:34

Kinbasket, the important thing is IRR. As I mentioned in my earlier posts, I'm not overly impressed with the financials and would need them to be much better if HUM were lead partner in delivery. In fact, if HUM try to develop Dugbe as main partner, I will divest.

[kinbasket] 13/6/2022 22:24

NPV5%.

In Liberia.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/6/2022 19:47

#Polaris, I would like to think the market will begin to price some of our 51% of VEIN in beginning tomorrow, it is of course not a certainty until it is all signed off, but notwithstanding that the hard work on the DFS has been done to an agreed/accepted standard..

#PH, yes huge upside potential just from recoveries, like +10%.. :o)

[plat hunter] 13/6/2022 19:46

That's huge upside LLB

[polaris] 13/6/2022 19:40

Not seeing a great deal of action on the VEIN price on this announcement so far.

[polaris] 13/6/2022 19:37

It'll be interesting to see the final paperwork submitted and the completion of the back-in of the HUM economic interest into Pasofino. At that point we will see a credible valuation of the complete project and the valuation that carries into HUM EV, which seems under-represented IMO. The $400 M or so build costs are the next hurdle...enter ESAN and some form of farm-out. That would also ease any jitters on the funding for Kouroussa build given the continuing under-performance of Yanfolila. Still expecting better results from the latter for Q2 but the market continues to question.

When there is a clear path to finish Kouroussa and get Yanfolila back on track plus a Dubge farm-out, i'd expect the HUM EV to shift significantly higher, which implies a (much) higher market cap. Market can be slow on the uptake so there may be little sustained action until Dugbe is all signed, sealed and delivered (i.e. HUM backed into it) and Q2 HUM results are out and audited.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/6/2022 19:24

#PH - metallurgical recovery for the study has been set at 83%, leaving significant upside that can be brought to account as gold price rises and Capex cost associated with further process recovery steps reduces. It is worth noting a 2% increase in overall recovery enhances the Project NPV by up to USD52M, most importantly Pasofino is in a position to pursue strategic alternatives to maximise shareholder value now that a key milestone of a detailed and economically robust FS is available..

HUM recoveries from a similar CIL plant are 90-95%.., so the DFS USD 1,005 AISC is fully loaded with downside protection..

[new_buyer] 13/6/2022 18:49

“One of my clients” LOL

[plat hunter] 13/6/2022 17:36

1900 pog increases project earnings by circa 60% May be there's your safety net for the irr margin ;-O

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/6/2022 17:33

#Sleveen, 4 year debt payback at IRR 25% but at just 1,700 POG, so we are well ahead of that currently, now we want to see what ESAN are going to bring to the table to get it built, exciting times ahead as the pieces of the puzzle come together and the earn in has now been satisfied..

#PH it is value adding for sure now, but I do not expect much of a mark up in the morning, the release of the DFS was a day POG got a drumming, and 2 days before FED interest rates are widely expected to accelerate north as well..

Environmental and social impact assessment ("ESIA") process nearing completion, with submission to the EPA expected in June 2022.

[plat hunter] 13/6/2022 17:31

And that's at an assumed pog of 1700 too 10.5% lower than q2 average.Almost 3 million ounces over 14 years at 23% with further drilling upside. I don't keep saying all three mines firing will make us bigger than CEY's sukari for nothing.

[lowtrawler] 13/6/2022 17:30

sleveen, if they go to production and achieve 23%, it is OK without being outstanding. The issue is that a FS has to be higher to de-risk project delivery. Everyone knows the risks around a major project - additional capex, longer timescales, higher operating costs etc.

The advantage we have is very little is currently built into the HUM price for Dugbe. Let's see how they go about monetising it.