Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/6/2022 12:52

The Dugbe DFS is still on schedule inside Q2, but has over run IS earlier expectations of end of April, plant size and scale will be nailed down but the CAPEX and operating cost modelling will need some reworks for sure to cover todays outlook for inflation, energy, fuel, labour, consumables which will inevitably erode some profitability, but over a 15-20 year LOM project given the economic woes POG could/should elevate covering some if not all of the shortfalls, if the USD hits the skids it will get very interesting..

[plat hunter] 08/6/2022 09:59

Ahh that's it and fair point re inflation.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/6/2022 20:24

PH, with grade/recoveries/efficiencies IS expected the plant could be downsized from 5MTPA to 4MTPA, so -20% on CAPEX, but my thoughts are with inflation input costs revisions some of this may not be realised to the full extent..

[plat hunter] 07/6/2022 19:28

Didn't they say not so long ago that the through put requirement at dugbe had been revised from 4m tonne's to 3m tonne's, reducing the build costs by around 100 million?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/6/2022 16:07

#Polaris, the APF 2% NSR over Dugbe will survive any change of ownership no matter who develops the project and this is just 1 reason why I hold them as well..Dugbe is slated to be a 185/200K ounce a year 15/20 year LOM project with build costs circa USD450/400M subject to DFS with revised CAPEX, our 51% of that has tremendous value adding potential..Our current EV as you say does not reflect the true value of a 200K producer let alone 300K...A very interesting time for the company and shareholders as it plays out..

[plat hunter] 07/6/2022 15:55

I see where you're going but you need to convince the shareholders to sell at that price. If they wanted to sell at 50 million then we'd be lot lower for sure.


One of the most underrated things going for HUM is the issuance and it's average market size. Watch it fly fast when it all starts coming together and getting noticed.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/6/2022 13:18

#PH, the debt element would be in the order of USD300/350M at 70/30, and given our debt position in hand with Kouroussa I am not so sure taking that on is the best route for us to steer the Dugbe project..

Esan will undoubtedly be a part of it, and they are gold mining already producing doré gold bars at their Inlice plant since commissioning in 2017..

VEIN/ESAN driving it and HUM diluted back to a smaller, maybe equal shareholder is my bet, but the sooner we are in a dividend paying position the better IMO..

[borderterrier1] 07/6/2022 12:32

Lowtrawler. Really? I wish I was a smart as you, I really do. Then perhaps you would have realized that I'm holding the cats a$$ to the fire.

[plat hunter] 07/6/2022 12:28

Would HUM pony up 30 million to retain their 51% Would we want to?

[plat hunter] 07/6/2022 12:20

They'll undoubtedly have to raise post HUM backing in. If the finance route is bank debt, they'll need circa 60 million cash on a 80% Loan to Value ratio.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/6/2022 12:11

#Lowtrawler, same here, I see the HUM 51% getting diluted back in a VEIN raise, ESAN having a much bigger holding and us possibly being a passive investor holding maybe 10/20% of the equity..

As time marches on I too would now like to see a route to dividends coming into view soon, 1 year to Kouroussa 1st pour, then 2/3 years debt payback is enough time to exclude dividends, so the share price at least needs to double your holding average to offset missed dividends elsewhere, but 80-100p would compensate for it nicely.. :o)

The DFS is most likely done, but possibly being revisited to update for input cost inflation, the financing package or BFS will be done in parallel and would drop soon after, ESAN will almost certainly be a player, they could fund it themselves if they wanted to..

[plat hunter] 07/6/2022 12:03

Market value for dugbe is already circa 50m pre DFS mind, I don't think 200 mil for a route to 250k at a sub 1000 aisc with access to a port, is that unreasonable. Especially as Endeavour just paid 90 mill for an undeveloped asset, equivalent in size and grade to Korroussa in land locked southwest Mali. (No build required, they can supplement existing assets and infrastructure though)Pure conjecture of course and if nothing else a fun way to pass the time whilst we wait.

[lowtrawler] 07/6/2022 11:52

PH, there are too many options around how a deal could be structured for Dugbe for us to speculate on what shape it will take. IMV, an outright sale is unlikely and, were it to happen, would likely yield somewhere closer to $50m rather than $100m. I think it is more likely to be a diluted free carry or similar hybrid. We won't have long to wait to find out.

[plat hunter] 07/6/2022 11:06

I would have been dead against a sale of dugbe, this time last year but now after the last 12 months, it could be the quickest route to a pound and a dividend policy.100m cash in the bank as Kor pours it's first would give hum total assets of over 400 million, no to low debt and 50-60m EBITDA.

[lowtrawler] 07/6/2022 10:20

LLB, yes, I thought it was interesting HUM are talking about how best to deliver shareholder value through Dugbe. I suspect a deal is already being done to announce alongside the DFS. In fact, the negotiations for such a deal may be causing the delay to publication.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/6/2022 10:08

#PH, ESAN invested into VEIN as we know in January, they have a seat on the board, and I am pretty sure they want a bigger slice of the pie too..

As soon as the DFS lands, we will see how it unfolds after we get our 51% of VEIN.., then who funds the mine build..

A very interesting period for the participating tri-party companies.. :o)

[plat hunter] 07/6/2022 09:59

I note that pasofino keep's tweeting how much Turkey loves gold. I wonder if ESAN will end up buying dugbe??

[lowtrawler] 07/6/2022 06:38

BT, you need to research OTC trading more. The trading is very thin and only executed when the MMs have available inventory. You really only need to look at the volume being traded in the USA to realise it's not going to arrive at the same market pricing as the UK.You see similar price discrepancies for all thinly traded OTC stocks compared to their main market and you can't draw any conclusions from this.

[borderterrier1] 07/6/2022 00:03

Well I never! Hum up 26% here in the US today but down in the UK? Sounds like monkey business to me....... But then, I have said that before.... but I'm just the Board idiot.

[lowtrawler] 06/6/2022 12:18

Cinoib, we're obviously off topic and so should probably call a halt to the whole economic meltdown discussion. Good for the long weekend. As others have said, this is uncharted territory and so no clear exit.

[cinoib] 06/6/2022 12:00

Lowtrawler, you been reading my book, this is what I have said elsewhere, but with a couple of proviso's. 1. Inflation will be 20%+ as the true rate is already close to that and if the world banks do not raise rates that will be like shooting themselves in the foot as that will only stoke inflation higher, to say 30%. Rates need to rise now before it gets out of hand, nevermind 1/4 points, we need full points and keep going untill we reach 7% or more, then we might see a slight slow down as we did in the early 80's before it fell from 25%. Bank rate was then 17% I remember as I was just starting out in my farming life and hit me hard.

[plat hunter] 05/6/2022 19:54

And HUMRF closed at 16p on Friday too ;-P

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/6/2022 15:01

#Lowtrawler, indeed, and a Pandoras box that will open if they get an award anywhere near inflation..

An almost perfect storm coming down the track now as inflation digs in, and wage demands begin turning into industrial actions..

For holders unfamiliar with royalty and streaming companies, now is a good time to consider adding, the beauty of their model is royalties come off the top line (GRR) a gross revenue royalty, or a net smelter return (NSR) the former is fully insulated from rising input costs, the latter just smelting fees..

I hold APF, as I like their business model, their royalty assets and the dividend income, they also happen to have a 2% NSR over Dugbe, along with a very nice EV focused portfolio..

Pasofino Dugbe DFS this month, but how soon.. :o)