Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 27/7/2020 12:38

Chip, am I comparing apples to pears or is there a huge disconnect between gold and gold miners compared to 2011?

[chipperfrd] 27/7/2020 12:34

Casual,

re gold price: from a producers point of view it is largely about average prices. So I am more interested in comparing the average price over 2011 to that occurring over 2020.

Average for 2011 was US$1,659/oz.

Average for 2020 (so far) is US$1,673/oz.

For Silver
Average over 2011 was US$35.40/oz.

Average over 2020 (so far) is US$16.98/oz

Impossible to 'know' where prices might be tomorrow let alone by 31/12/20, but it would appear probable that there is still further upside for both Au and Ag with, perhaps, a greater probable upside percentage for silver over the full year.

Chip

[aim999] 27/7/2020 12:27

Anyone tried buying a decent number?

[aim999] 27/7/2020 12:25

I just tried a dummy sell - offered 41.95p for well over 100k shares. This is clearly going to fly much higher...... the quarterly will be rocket fuel ... hopefully DB doesn't disappoint

[casual47] 27/7/2020 12:12

Back in 2011 the gold price went up 25-30% within two months.

So the current rise is still nowhere near what's possible when it goes crazy.

[casual47] 27/7/2020 11:54

Andrew, yes, but this has been true for a few years now, to no avail.

[cinoib] 27/7/2020 11:52

Well I have halved all my gold stocks this morning and very happy as am sure gold wil retrace a bit as we have seen $150 rise in what, 10 days. Am sure we have much further to go with the gold price but a short pullback now won't go a miss or won't hurt iether. The cash looks better in the bank anyway, then I can spend it without touching my original investment.

[andrewsr] 27/7/2020 11:52

With 3 mines in 3 countries progressing in various stages + Cora, a combined life >> 10 years (not sure about 30 years?), HUM should IMO have a 10-15 x 2021/2 earnings rating, i.e. a share price well north of £1 now, without the need for irrational exuberance, never mind in 2 years time. Maybe some irrational exuberance will be coming as well with the price of gold sailing past the previous high without hesitation.

[ukgeorge] 27/7/2020 11:45

JSW that is far too simplistic. Unless you have found a way to move the process plant magically from one country to the next.

[casual47] 27/7/2020 11:39

Chip is the owner of this HUM thread so he may clarify. Alternatively you may try him on the thread itself.

He may be updating financial info etc as per the offical final results rather than interims/quarterly.

[jswjsw] 27/7/2020 11:35

glenn -

6.4 moz. total resource / 200k oz pa production.

j

Thanks, casual - fascinating.

[dickbush] 27/7/2020 11:33

Thanks for that, casual. HUM's EV appears to include over $100 mil of net debt. Any idea where that comes from? If that's assuming $100 mil of future debt to develop Kouroussa, I'd suggest that's pretty pessimistic bearing in mind the free cash flow Yanfolila will be producing.

[casual47] 27/7/2020 10:34

JSW,

Chip has done a lot of the legwork over on

It has a comprehensive breakdown of all the producers

[glennborthwick] 27/7/2020 10:26

Where's the 30 year life come from

[jswjsw] 27/7/2020 10:17

So for what it's worth, having been investing in the gold mkt for 35 years (!) I thought I would try to get things back to conventional assessments.

The price to cash flow measure has always been critical, and on that basis HUM (around 4.2) remains the best value in the market. Its price to book is just about the best (1.1) as well - only SRB is better and that is a tiny co.
HUM also has a predicted mine life of over 30 years. This is more than POG although less than PAF. PAF has problems, of course, since its AISC are high. This should produce high gearing, but its extra costs are so high that even with the biggest total resource it has struggled. With PAF the hope it is that profit will now be there with the higher spot price.
The other seriously good price/NAV is HGM, which has stated that Covid will not imopact annual production. CEY is - well - average, and SHG is again a pretty samll outfit. It sometimes comes down to exactly how much gold is in the ground. Re which, HUM does pretty well too. As for CGH - I couldn't possibly comment!

All views appreciated - fire at will!

J

[imnotspartacus] 27/7/2020 09:13

The legend bit can't last long but may be HUM going up can.

[imnotspartacus] 27/7/2020 09:00

Same here everything is up even the wife thinks I'm a legend!!

[cinoib] 27/7/2020 08:54

Well that's blown the doors of the gold bugs who said it would retrace and wow am well in the black ink this morning a all my gold stocks are well into profit, will trim one just incase gold goes backwards. I can see it better in the bank.

[imnotspartacus] 27/7/2020 08:49

Cora rns just out...looking good!

[bishan bedi] 27/7/2020 08:14

Can't buy any though, it should rise shortly.

[qs99] 27/7/2020 08:11

HUM as yet unmoved....

[aim999] 27/7/2020 07:57

Should be a nice open.....should gain momentum through the week as people look to move into gold