Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 31/7/2020 14:48

Casual,

I'm not trying to exaggerate the "right price" for HUM, I'm just using some simple yardsticks to demonstrate how cheap it is relative to its peers. Clearly, the EV/EBITDA is better because there is no credit given to HUM for anything other than Yanfolila when we know (hope) it will have the other two in production in two years time. Even if Yanfolila dried up completely, the combined output attributed to those two would be circa 160+k ounces of which 125k ounces (51% HUM's) is supposed to be producing for, what, 20 years from Dugbe. In doing the maths, all I'm trying to do is search for relative value. Somewhere down the road, I'd like to sell up and move on. How are YOU going to make that decision?

I'll give you there should be something in for the divi but, that aside, I'm comparing apples with apples.

[wassapper] 31/7/2020 14:20

Agreed. Hoping that some of that HGM cash will find its way here. If POG rises well over $2,000 I am looking for 100p here.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/7/2020 14:03

The Q2 update look like Monday/Tuesday..

c30,000+ Ounces for the 4th consecutive quarter
Q2 POG c1,700, margin 850/Oz
EBITDA cUSD 25M..

Cash and Gold at Q1 was +USD25M and debt -34M
Cash and Gold at Q2 was +USD tbc and debt -28M

Difficult to see how we will not cross the net cash positive milestone..

Hold onto your hats for the Q3 earnings if POG holds up.. :o)

[muffster] 31/7/2020 13:51

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/aim-hum/hummingbird-resources-shares

[qs99] 31/7/2020 13:30

Personally I just think the Q2 update could be the catalyst for a really decent re-rate....POG should be benefiting them mahoosively....DYOR

[borderterrier1] 31/7/2020 12:43

new-buyer Sorry you're obviously upset by my good fortune.

[cinoib] 31/7/2020 11:59

Looks like 7-1 on the buy side to me so looks like more upside than down even if gold falls back a bit. Something definitely in the wind.

[casual47] 31/7/2020 11:51

So 73p would be the absolute highmark then. Reduce that by virtue of HUM not having been a divi payer for nearly a decade and having less than 5 years worth of proven mine life.

Comparing with HGM is really apples and pears.

[qs99] 31/7/2020 11:49

think 40p will be left behind shortly, buyers paying full offer

[dickbush] 31/7/2020 11:48

Measured, Indicated and Inferred

HGM 19.1 Mil Oz

HUM 4.3 Mil Oz

Based on EV/Resources that equates to 73p, assuming HUM has zero net debt at June 30th.

[casual47] 31/7/2020 11:24

Reserves alone:

HGM more than 5m oz

HUM less than 1m oz

[casual47] 31/7/2020 11:20

The difference is that HGM has been a steady and reliable divi payer for many years now. (One of the highest divis)

Divi miners are valued more highly than those who don't.

Also, in terms of resources HGM beats HUM about four-fold.

[dickbush] 31/7/2020 11:12

Just playing with numbers:

I looked at Highland Gold. Assuming gold averages $1,950 in the second half, AISC is unchanged from 2019, output increases 10% and net debt is unchanged from end-2019 (they spent more than they earned in 2019, so it might be worse), then the EV/EBITDA multiple for 2021 comes to 4.2 times.

Even using the increased AISC for HUM that equates to circa 95p with nothing in for Kouroussa or Dugbe. Of course, a connected Russian mining in Russia might be considered about as safe as a Canadian mining in Canada. I wouldn't.

You pays your money etc.

[qs99] 31/7/2020 11:04

indeed, well said.

Roll on next week with POG hopefully smashing $2,000 and HUM update.....while we all get our abacuses out to count how much it is / should be making!

[ukgeorge] 31/7/2020 10:53

Andy have you bought back in yet?Fingers crossed gold doesn't get smacked down this evening. Will be great to finish the week so close to $2,000.Such a global perfect storm for gold and seemingly everything seems to be dropping into place here. Roll on q2 results and some nice steady news flow after that

[wassapper] 31/7/2020 10:46

Just for fun

[wskill] 31/7/2020 10:17

Thats a another £400 million looking for a home from HGM hopefully into undervalued gold miners with our £136m market cap it will not take much of it to start our upward movement.

[qs99] 31/7/2020 08:10

Reckon Q2 will be next week, 2nd August last year, DYOR< but that doesn't leave much time to lock and load ahead of the update.....DYOR

[ukgeorge] 31/7/2020 08:10

just added 25k @38.39

[qs99] 31/7/2020 08:09

HGM buy out shows M&A now on the cards in this sector.

Next Q2 update should be fascinating and like Teumjiin I am all in....

[imnotspartacus] 31/7/2020 07:59

Highland Gold just been bought out for a song!

[temujiin] 30/7/2020 23:00

Just for the record, as I like to be up front in case anyone is remotely interested, I've added 48,000 this week, so now have 223,000, average going up, now at 28.7p.

HUM is cheap, dirt cheap, as the FCF is huge at current POG which alone justifies a higher share price imo, also 2 year news flow looks v.encouraging as Dugbe gets explored and DFS'd, plus Korousse (however it's spelt) gets readied for production in 24 months.

I'm occasionally top slicing another goldie, which has become over-weight at £130k+ to add here. Next target is to round up to 250k. HUM is very profitable at $1500/oz, $1900 POG and its coining it in.

[borderterrier1] 30/7/2020 22:30

Techandy They are thank you. Here's one of my new gold picks:- Portofino resources PFFOF. Don't want to divulge the other one on here just yet. I really thought that Hum was going to perform at last but the share price has the uncanny knack of doing badly compared to other junior miners. Hopefully it will still come good but I am concerned there may be something "iffy" in the next RNS. Strange that this has gone down so much recently. Good luck with your investments.

[dickbush] 30/7/2020 21:30

Basic 2nd qtr production, cost and gold price achieved due any day now.