Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 06/8/2018 11:44

casual

'Sanguine' is my middle name!!

Collect stuff that I want to own.
Avoid all margin trading.
Patience.
Look to take advantage when price drops.
Don't be greedy and therefore take cash back when positions reach target profit.
Stick to fundamentals.
In general, go against the crowd.

CEY was a good case in point. Originally bought at c. 7p in early 2000's. Took good profits in 2009/10. Bought back in on the big price crash to c. 27p. Then started to work positions which led to the creation of the 'staircase' concept and spreadsheet design. Eventually reached 0p holding cost in 2016/17. However, I felt the fundamentals had changed so closed out totally in Autumn 2017. Have started buying the odd position back now and will keep it going in the 'staircase'.
Chip

[casual47] 06/8/2018 11:42

Div, the answer to that problem is to have a portfolio, I guess.

[divmad] 06/8/2018 11:34

The bummer is when you apply a zig zag system like this, and overnight bad news is released and the share price gaps down big time. Eh imm a few months back, establishing an entirely new trading range divorced from the previous zig zag pattern.

[casual47] 06/8/2018 11:14

Chip, sounds like a good plan re. the free shares.

Have begun to move in that direction too. Especially for sectors like mining where the swings are wild but usually within a range (e.g. CEY 110-180). The advantage of doing it on shares you want to own is that you can be sanguine about a paper-loss....as long as the fundamentals hold and you have a reasonable expectation of the share's ability to bounce back, of course.

[chipperfrd] 06/8/2018 10:56

casual47,

I use the 'staircase' to accumulate shares that I want to own. I usually take a multi-year view so I normally get many zig-zags along the way and therefore a fairly constant cash recycling with additional 'free' shares.

I don't consider that I can accurately 'time the market', so I have no wish to risk closing out and possibly crystalizing some position losses. And in any case, in my view, I need to be buying on dips and not selling. The exact opposite of what I should be doing!

I appreciate it is not the way that many might wish to play the market but it is a methodical system that automatically prompts me to buy and sell without any emotion getting in the way. And it has worked pretty well for me.

Chip

[ukgeorge] 06/8/2018 10:41

Well I personally think that hummingbirds transition from a junior gold miner to an investment vehicle over the last two months has had an affect on the share price.

What other rabbits will be coming out the hat??

[redtrend] 06/8/2018 10:09

For now Bunker Hill is immaterial to the HUM share price - it's a $1.5m convertible loan!

Bizarrely I tend to think it may have more to do with the gold sentiment being rock bottom, going from $1,350 down to $1,200.

[casual47] 06/8/2018 10:06

Chip, re. your zig-zag system. What's the advantage of leaving the free shares versus selling out completely and using the whole sum to buy back in? Is it a hedge of sorts?

[ukgeorge] 06/8/2018 09:54

Yeah the constant slide in the share price really is showing how that asset is being valued.

[chipperfrd] 06/8/2018 08:59

Divmad (re your query about my 'staircase' system)

You asked about it on my comparison thread in post #7166 (24/12/17) and I gave a rough summary in a few of the following posts.

Here is a link:



Hope that's ok. If you need more info ask me on that thread.

Chip

[divmad] 05/8/2018 20:35

Plus, he is projecting a 2020 MC of £100mn made up just of liquid assets from profitable mining between now and then. A veritable cash cow, going nowhere, doing nothing, with all that lovely jubbly.

[darola] 05/8/2018 20:12

L5.

“That doesn't take account of sharp fall in cash flow in 2020 as mining moves to Komana West pit so will take a lot longer. HUM has been keeping very quiet about that“

So how do you account for their Q2 presentation, where they have forecast - after extended LOM (which is a given this year) - an increase in gold production in 2020? Slide 7 -

Even without the LOM extension, HUM have been totally transparent about production levels - on this same slide - and indicated current LOM is 7 years with an average yield of 107koz. So How do you work out that “HUM has been keeping very quiet about that”?

Anybody that thinks Yanfolila will not run for well beyond 10 years, and will not expand its capacity (via an additional ball mill and CIL tanks) knows nothing of the gold belt they are sitting in. So I’d suggest that those who do “thorough analysis” in your eyes probably need to be more thorough.

[bittorrent] 05/8/2018 19:29

Divmad, I was reading an article somewhere (can't remember) which said that Malian elections have so far been peaceful and that no one has defeated a sitting president. We shall have to wait until after the 12th to know the result.

[lurker5] 05/8/2018 19:22

UKG - which is only $41m to HUM in the year, and will take nearly four years to clear the liquidity deficit and build up liquid assets to equal the current market cap (Fixed assets will be worth nil eventually). That doesn't take account of sharp fall in cash flow in 2020 as mining moves to Komana West pit so will take a lot longer. HUM has been keeping very quiet about that. Its why those who do thorough analysis think Hum is still expensive. Also shows how dangerous to use very simplistic measures like a current level of cash flow or apparent balance sheet total assets and profit for a company due for sharp fluctuations in both and with a very short life. Hopes for Yanfolila extended life are just that at present, and savvy investors won't give credit for it unless at a much lower share price. I agree with those who think a fall to the low 20's is likely.

[divmad] 05/8/2018 16:12

Hello chip,

I know I have asked you this before, but can you please remember the post(s) where you discuss your averaging in/out system for individual shares?

ATB.

[divmad] 05/8/2018 14:22

Is the Mali election run-off vote an issue for Hum?

[ukgeorge] 05/8/2018 12:28

What I like about mining companies is that they are working on the weekend :) Each day 350oz or there abouts a margin of $400/oz $140,000 per day of free cash flow Happy days.

[new_buyer] 04/8/2018 17:38

Wherever BT goes it turns toxic sadly

[zeberdie] 04/8/2018 16:59

Theres a new moderated thread full of good posts. Im entertaining the clown here.

[troc1958] 04/8/2018 16:52

Well done ...you have destroyed what used to be a good bb. Please f off and bicker elsewhere

[zeberdie] 04/8/2018 14:31

Only your love could put me back together again.

[borderterrier1] 04/8/2018 14:16

zeberdie. People like you cause their own misfortune, that's why I suggested looking in the mirror. Your obvious violent tendencies would suggest that you are a troubled person and you should seek help.