Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jimbowen30] 09/8/2018 13:36

Sad that this thread has degenerated so much. Advice to all - filter BT as there's no point engaging with clowns. If you want that, then go to the circus. We now have another idiot who can't even spell.

Meanwhile, the long term outlook for HUM remains excellent and they are a bargain at the current share price imo.

[ukgeorge] 09/8/2018 13:34

Good luck Brucey, It does feel like they may have finally found some support. As you say lots of gloom at the moment when almost everything that the company has been doing is very positive. Roll on this bounce continuing.

[master rsi] 09/8/2018 13:16

There are a few large buy trades at NEX

[new_buyer] 09/8/2018 13:12

Then share your wisdom, but you won’t or more likely can’t!!!

[master rsi] 09/8/2018 13:10

Is now on a spike on the intraday chart, after holding at lows for a few days. Volume is picking up aswell.

[borderterrier1] 09/8/2018 13:06

new_buyer I don't know all the answers, but sure as s$%#t I know a hell of a lot more than you do.

[fsawatcher] 09/8/2018 13:02

good news innit

[fsawatcher] 09/8/2018 13:02

hxxps://www.news24.com/Africa/News/mali-opposition-loses-election-challenge-at-top-court-20180808

[fsawatcher] 09/8/2018 12:57

diretor share deals mean tat all

they get cheap share options which free innit so they dont ave to buy nutten

whens rainy seasons over coz it chuckin it down innit

what mali doin president

[brucey6onus] 09/8/2018 12:55

Probably going to regret this but bought another 50k, @27.38p quite a bit inside the 28p offer showing currently (if you care).

Just feels maximum gloominess has been reached, endless nashing of teeth about options, about POG, about LoM been waiting for that gloom to get to a crescendo.... then strike - but in reality it will probably keep going down....and then I'll have to buy more (repeat until bankrupt lol)

[new_buyer] 09/8/2018 12:50

Why don’t you answer your own question for us? Don’t you know all the answers?

[borderterrier1] 09/8/2018 12:41

Fsj. You're not listening again. WHAT CAUSED THE LIFT TO 39.5 A YEAR AGO. And keep buying on the dips Frank. I guess that's why there's been NO DIRECTOR SHARE DEALS. That shows confidence in the co. doesn't it?

[fsawatcher] 09/8/2018 12:32

fsjames

yous write what peeps want to hear but you not tells the truth - you soothsayer but in timewarp innit

hum retail ibvestor not sellin

it all HUM flaky wakey II that sellin. Pageant bin sellin all stock... s r global been sellin loads, petit mining corp been sellin

retail investor aint bein manipulated that jus stuff you make up in yous head

ii sellin out nuffin bad in that thoughs coz new ii's buyin the stock innit

HUM gettin dropped to mid 20's got more to do with Betts buyin into chocolate fireguards coz he aint smart bloke when it come to investin

HUM AISC's risin aint they? woz $690 nows $790. Why they risen? Will they drop or keep goin highers

[chipperfrd] 09/8/2018 12:00

I am using 30% tax less recoveries.

The 80% attributable only cuts in after loans are repaid. I am estimating c. 24 months at 100%.

The AISC includes royalty and sustaining Capex.

[redtrend] 09/8/2018 11:14

Hydrogen - thanks for the analysis. It goes to show what I was thinking that HUM is fairly valued at $1,200 gold when purely based on projecting out for current fundamentals of 7yrs LoM and current mine profile.

Investors have been burnt so many times on small-mid gold mining companies that until everything is formalised, the market is cynical to value forecasts, no matter how confident we PIs may be about it. However as you point out, this means there is a lot of upside when/ if the Mine Plan is revised to increase LoM 10yrs+ and increase production so "steady state" goes from 107k Oz to 130K Oz. Not to mention upside in event of gold price recovery.

To me this is reassuring and why I've invested in HUM: the upside not yet factored into the share price for LoM extension + production increase over 10yrs+.


Few items:

a) Royalty: Taxes & duties like royalties which are applied to revenue are normally included by miners in AISC. I believe HUM is no different, so the Mali 3% royalty is already included in AISC.

b) Corp Tax: just out of interest where have you taken the 25% tax rate from? I note others have used it too. I believe Mali Corp Tax rate is 30%, but of course UK rate is 19%. I'm not sure how HUM as an entity is taxed across the different Tax regimes.

c) Tax credits: HUM have built up a significant amount of tax credits from Capex which they need to recoup. Before the 80%-20% kicks in and full tax rates, this needs to be taken into account. I don't know what value this is, maybe someone else does.

d) Production: do your 10yr+ life calculations take into account the increased forecast production profile of 120-130K production over 12yrs?

[hydrogen economy] 09/8/2018 10:37

There are widely divergent views on what HUM is worth and why it is where it is. I use DCF calcs as a check on my investments and have applied to HUM to look at the current plan, an extended Yanfolila life case and two gold price assumptions. It’s a rough calculation and does not include non-cash items like depreciation.

The current 7 year plan and expected outcome is fairly well defined. 114 kOz in 2018 then production profile in 2Q HUM presentation. POG 1222, AISC 775$/Oz in Y1, 750 by Y3 (Cancordia assumptions), 7m Overheads (based on 2017 FY Other admin costs), 80% share, 3% royalty, 25% tax and 100% FCF conversion.

At $1222 POG I estimate EPS cents for 7 years as 6.3, 7.0, 6.4, 5.5, 5.2,6.7,6.2 which is roughly in line with Cancordia 18/19

Applying a 7% discount factor to the cash flow I get the following.
7 year life POG 1222 NPV per share 27.7 p
7 year life POG 1322 NPV per share 32.3 p
10 year life POG 1222 NPV per share 37.2 p
10 year life POG 1322 NPV per share 44.0 p

NOTE I am neither an accountant or a gold miner and working with public domain info only, I’d be interested in any other value estimates. These are indicative and mainly of interest to show the relative numbers.

I conclude that the market seems to be valuing HUM at the proven 7yrs with little credit for other resources locally or for interests in Dugbe, Cora, US etc. This would to some extent be balanced by risk, political, technical POG etc.

So what can HUM do to improve SP? - Extending mine life would give a big benefit, which they are prioritizing.

[fsjamescampbell] 09/8/2018 08:44

Why is he still talking to me..........

Ok BT here it is in a nutshell........

Fundamentally HUM is astounding, they have hit every target during financial raise, pre-project planning, project procurement and execution, mining operation cross over with end phase plant construction, mining operation cross over with end phase plant construction and then commissioning, first gold pour in which our very own CEO Mr Dan Betts got stuck in with a shovel and helped to bring the first gold pour to fruition, positive and remarkably fast ramp up stage, announcement on commercial production within 3 month phase in 2018, very positive first full commercial production quarter with 38700oz of gold sold of which 33101 was produced during that first commercial quarter netting $50m to the war chest of which $20m was free cash, reducing net debt down to $15m!!!!!!

SP has underperformed for reasons we can only speculate, the likely culprit is retail selling due to fear, boredome and frustration, institutions mopping up said shares at low price due to lack of competition, brokers happy "honour" the big insti as they are likely a huge fund with millions of capital spend in many sectors over the financial markets.

BOD - have delivered but comms at crucial times like the site incident has been perceived as poor, as others involved like AMS reported "all is well" HUM took the stance that during their first ever commercial production quarter they would lay low, maybe this turned out to be the best scenario or maybe it didn't. DB made the comment about nt buying shares to the caller on the cc and it came across wrong to PI's because the chap was only asking the question, a fair response in some respects, if DB sells shares it could hurt the sp, but maybe if the share price was above 50p and DB sold some shares it may only knock the share price 15 - 20% which could easily recover over a period. Maybe more updates on the current drill plan via social media, some more tweets from the gold room, tweets and statements about the mining operations, how is KW getting on the topsoil removal and so on. Updates on BH via social media, maybe a statement / RNS stating that "HUM operationally are delivering and they know of no other reason for the recent drop in SP"

I suppose that is it in a nutshell BT - Operationally cannot find fault and some!!!! Fettling the market and instilling full confidence in the market with timely social media updates and RNS updates on more sensitive progress - could do better.

Retail appear to be selling and a larger buyer is gladly mopping up, new retail investors will return at some point, probably very soon given drilling updates are probably only a few weeks away, Q3 results landing around 8 weeks time and so on. The lower the share price and the more weeks we gather "free cash" will certainly boost the share buy back when this can legally happen as the shares to be bought back will be cheap and HUM will get more for their money, less shares in issue than anticipated and therefore the share price will move forward at a superb rate, interest will be further generated, shares will be more liquid and sentiment will be very high.

Solution - Patience, top up on lows, keep accumulating if funds allow given the stonking fundamentals, why? The risk is far lower the closer the bottom you get to, then the turn comes and it doesn't have to go very far forward to bring your losses back in line, then when it gets back to reasonable and true trading levels you are in more profit than you were last time.

Retail investors are manipulated through fear of paper loss, what if i don't recover losses, some other stock looks ripe i will try and recover over there and come back and so on and so forth...........its a game, most company fundamentals are poorly researched by the mm's and they look on BB's and social media to judge sentiment, they then play on that either in a positive way to walk up a share or negatively to walk down a share. Its all a game, turn off, believe in the fundamentals, because they are without doubt and without debate some of the strongest fundamentals around for any AIM stock.

Thats it BT - The story so far!

[zeberdie] 09/8/2018 08:08

That is an easy one to answer. Blokes like me Frank my local land lady and many many others bought into hummingbirds forthcoming production and story. a friend herd from a friend who passed it on to another friend ect ect . And as it rose we kept buying all the way up to and including 39p.

[new_buyer] 09/8/2018 08:00

Borderterrier can you?

[borderterrier1] 09/8/2018 01:01

Waylander1970 I'm surprised you are still up. Can you answer the question?

[waylander1970] 09/8/2018 00:54

You're not your. See, you do need me as a proof reader!

[borderterrier1] 08/8/2018 23:29

Darola. Your a knowlegeable guy can you answer the question without getting offensive?

[borderterrier1] 08/8/2018 23:28

new_buyer Same question. What caused the move to 39.50 p a year ago?

[borderterrier1] 08/8/2018 23:22

zeberdie. I can't put things on here that I can't prove conclusively, but I have a question for you or any other that can answer it. What do you think caused the share price to jump to 39.50p a year ago?