Hummingbird Resources Share Discussion Threads

[borderterrier1] 14/8/2018 13:53

new_buyer This is a great buying opportunity for you! I will wait until it gets to 18 p. Won't be long, before the end of the year I expect?

[new_buyer] 14/8/2018 12:54

Zzzzzzzzzz

[borderterrier1] 14/8/2018 12:52

new_buyer Lurker bangs the same drum because he is right and so am I especially the part about the pump up by the broker a year ago. Don't you get it? The Bod don't care about Pi. Why would they?

[ukgeorge] 14/8/2018 11:10

Darola, yes the current gold price weakness is undoubtedly partly to blame for the current poor share price but, the share price has declined for the last 12 months. So blaming the gold price/sector performance is not correct imo. Also comparing the likes of say Rand Gold, Barrick etc is not a relevant comparison either given that Hum has passed through what is arguably the most important period in a mining companies life cycle (building the mine and reaching commercial production).

The risks at Hum have dropped significantly since reaching commercial production and it is difficult to understand why the share price has not re rated.


A few factors that are to blame

LOM (being addressed)
Share options (unknown if they will repeat)
AISC (worries it could climb, due to high strip ratio)
Higher oil prices (should they consider hedging (a little late))
Fall in gold price (could hedge, risky game)
Worries about Sulphide ore (new mill $4M, fingers crossed all goes well)

Bunker Hill ($2M so far)
Up for debate
If they takeover $30M ish
Development cost $90M
Complete change in commodity
Diversified miners are valued on a lower ratio than gold miners (yes Hum is valued at f all)
Gold funds suddenly can't invest
What is next

[squash90] 14/8/2018 11:03

900,000 yesterday I am in so only asking

[new_buyer] 14/8/2018 10:48

Have you progressed to he 2012 presentation yet or are you still looking at the 2011 one?

[new_buyer] 14/8/2018 10:41

Lurker are you still banging that drum about “a sharply declining cash flow from Yanf” even though you’ve been proven wrong on this every time you say by many many people on here?

[lurker5] 14/8/2018 10:18

Re Align Research
I see that Darola, despite 10 years as a 'investor', still can't spot dud 'research' !
Clue No 1. What sort of nerd states a 'target' share price to two decimal places ?
Clue No 2. What sort of nerd forgets to deduct $60m of Cora debt from his 'Sum of Parts' ?
Clue No 3. What sort of nerd has so little experience that he thinks a SoP is ever achieved in practice ? And why would anyone pay right up to a 'target' price ? So why would it ever be hit ?
Clue No 4 What sort of nerd includes a $33m 'value' for Dugbe when a) he admits a partner will have to come in and take away part of any value and b) he uses an 'average' EV/oz of a set of 'peers' all at more advanced stage with better quality 'resources' and where most are well below his 'average', but which latter is inflated by including a tremendous 'outlier' - Mombore - which has all permits, is far more profitable, and in a better jurisdiction.
Clue No 5. What sort of nerd quotes approvingly of a Dugbe 29.4% irr (not that exciting) and doesn't understand that the 10% 'free carry' for Liberia that he mentions will reduce that to 25.8% (marginal for a miner) and the NPV10 by a massive 20% from $184m to $148m ! - quite a big drop, but unrecognised.

Many other clues to nerdism too numerous to mention, but not least that a theoretical NPV value has never, ever, been achieved or even closely approached in practice (for which there is a very good reason never admitted by the analysts who put them up) by any of the 70 or so junior miners I have followed closely during the last 15 years even including the 2011 bull run.

And last but not least, why didn't HUM jump for joy when its broker put up an even bigger 'target' a year or so ago ? - Why ? - because the savvy know that such 'targets' are bogus ! The analyst puts them up to satisfy either his client company or his broker employer touting to sell the shares to the non-savvy. To achieve a juicy looking one he will inch up by dodgy means every single element of a SoP! I know, because I worked in that world for many years.

It is, of course, possible that Gonka will come partially to the rescue of a sharply declining cash flow from Yanfolila over the next few years and a consequent falling HUM share price. But its not certain yet, and there are other uncertainties for HUM meanwhile. So we should all commiserate with poor old Align if its 'conviction' led it to buy the shares in July at 30.5p !

And it is, of course, possible that gold might also come to the rescue. But a recovery will have to see a really determined and sharp, and such a a 'violent' uptrend has been regularly forecast as 'imminent' for almost as long as I can remember !

By popular demand I'll out similar nerdism in HUM's latest presentation when time permits.

[darola] 14/8/2018 10:04

Massive?! What are you measuring against? 200k is hardly massive.

[squash90] 14/8/2018 09:36

Why the massive sells ?

[fsjamescampbell] 14/8/2018 07:51

POG is a concern for all gold miners at the moment but given Q2 figures the following is a simple example of the "FREE CASH" HUM will still be making each "QUARTER" right down to POG being $1000 AISC based at the constant $790 per oz as reported and maintaining the 33koz average up to March 31st 2019

1. POG @ $1250 - HUM FREE CASH = $15.18m - STERLING AMOUNT = £11.84m (12.2% of current MCAP)

2. POG @ $1200 - HUM FREE CASH = $13.53m - STERLING AMOUNT = £10.55m (10.88% of current MCAP)

3. POG @ $1150 - HUM FREE CASH = $11.88m - STERLING AMOUNT = £9.27m (9.56% of current MCAP)

5. POG @ $1100 - HUM FREE CASH = $10.23m - STERLING AMOUNT = £7.98m (8.23% of current MCAP)

6. POG @ $1050 - HUM FREE CASH = $8.58m - STERLING AMOUNT = £6.69 (6.9% of current MCAP)

7. POG @ $1000 - HUM FREE CASH = $6.93m - STERLING AMOUNT = £5.4m (5.57% of current MCAP)

POG is a worry for HUM at the moment as it is for everyone in the Gold industry but the above demonstrates the very healthy quarterly PROFIT / FREE CASH that HUM will still be generating right down to POG being $1000

Reading some superb articles last night on the current gold position the turn will happen and it will happen violently, when it happens is the biggest question for gold based investors alike. This certainly helped me to get to grips with the current POG and the confusion and questions around how this affects HUMs bottom line. To me it is displaying sustained health right the way down to $1000 / oz.

[divmad] 14/8/2018 06:44

Dan:

"That second look takes a lot of time, and there's going to be a lot of detailed due diligence, and that would not have been possible had we not given Bunker Hill this convertible loan because it would have gone bankrupt, and then the whole thing would have unravelled.
For us, this is not so much an investment as an opportunity to lock down that opportunity should it pass that due dilligence. It's abso no way a commitment to get involved in Bunker Hill and build it."

Eh?

So if their detailed DD shows Hum should pass on the deal, BH will go bankrupt. In that case, how does Hum propose to get its initial investment returned?

[waylander1970] 14/8/2018 01:40

Got the goon filtered but 5hought the reply would be apt.

[roguetreader] 13/8/2018 22:22

UKG
IMO PI's rarely if ever have influence on company strategy. It is clear from the interview that DB and the BOD have a strategic plan for how they want HUM to develop and go forward. As stated in the interview DB has not fully committed to Bunker Hill, but they will be looking for similar opportunities if it doesn't play out. Personally I believe the recent HUM share price weakness has far more to do with gold price weakness than Bunker Hill.

[darola] 13/8/2018 21:16

Yep. Appears Bunker Hill has caused GDX & GDXJ to drop, a large majority of gold mining stocks - when viewed in their own right - to do the same; loads of speculators to go short on gold and drag it below $1200, and a few other non-mining stocks on AIM to drop at similar rate. Dan and the BoD need to answer some serious questions on this, surely they knew this one “arms length” and well structured deal would have financial repercussions on a global scale?

[ukgeorge] 13/8/2018 19:38

Yeah sorry Casual compared to the Turkish Lira Hum is doing great..... I personally think the bunker hill project is an unneeded distraction.

[casual47] 13/8/2018 19:30

UKGeorge, pray tell, what does HUM's shareprice tells us?

What could a shareprice which e.g. over the last three months has outperformed that of far more prestigious major gold miners with far better fundamentals than HUM's possibly tell us?

[ukgeorge] 13/8/2018 19:25

Rogue do you have any idea where the BOD want the company to go? "Unduly influenced by PIs" how arrogant is that, the company is owned by investors. What is more they likely paid an awful lot more than the 1p options that were taken up on Friday. I think the share price tells us what the mkt thinks about bunker hill.

[rileyma] 13/8/2018 18:59

Potential hum collaboration discussed

[roguetreader] 13/8/2018 15:01

Given Dan Bett's comments below as per his recent interview in Mining Journal, I think the BOD have a clear view as to where they want Hummingbird to go and will not be unduly influenced by PIs.

MJ: Looking at an investment Hummingbird has made recently, Idaho is quite different to West Africa, and it's also a base metal project. What made you put some money into something so different?
DB: It's a good question. A few people were surprised about it. It's worth explaining our thinking. What is Hummingbird? People want to say we're a West African gold company. I would say we are an ambitious mining company that wants to be a lower cost-quartile, cash-generative, profitable, well-managed, mining company. We want to be able to exploit opportunity where we find it. Liberia was an opportunity; we found that gold from scratch, Mali was an opportunity from our relationships, what's next for Hummingbird, it could go in lots of different directions. As a team, we've been screening literally hundreds of projects around the world, and there's a lot of different criteria on which a project can succeed or fail.
If we go off-piste, out of gold and out of West Africa, the rationale for doing so would have to be exponentially better, and the further afield you get from that, in any discipline, be that the metal or the geography or the complexity of the project, the terms would have to be materially better. Idaho, lead-zinc-silver ... I accept it's very different to what we are doing in West Africa. That said, if the terms are exceptional, we've got to look at it.
We have done some preliminary due diligence, and in terms of our financial discipline and all the returns and ability to execute, it was worth a second look. That second look takes a lot of time, and there's going to be a lot of detailed due diligence, and that would not have been possible had we not given Bunker Hill this convertible loan because it would have gone bankrupt, and then the whole thing would have unravelled.
For us, this is not so much an investment as an opportunity to lock down that opportunity should it pass that due dilligence. It's abso no way a commitment to get involved in Bunker Hill and build it.

[borderterrier1] 13/8/2018 14:38

new_buyer Yep.

[new_buyer] 13/8/2018 14:02

Only you know Toxic, only you know!!

[borderterrier1] 13/8/2018 13:29

Waylander1970 share price going down again? I guess Toxic Incompetent Terry was right yet again? This won't improve until the investors that bought at the inflated price get their money back. Wonder where the money went?

[redtrend] 13/8/2018 13:28

Thanks GP, very good article.

I would say though that you give some disgruntled PIs a bit too much clout:

"several large retail investors have voiced on the message boards at ADVFN their dissatisfaction with Hummingbird’s investment in Bunker Hill Mining"

Who is to know whether they are large investors or not? And unless they sold, it would not have impacted the share price I hope the HUM board have not listened to all the noise of a few on LSE and ADVFN (I'm sure they haven't) and proceed with their own Due Diligence on Bunker Hill.