Hollywood Bowl Share Discussion Threads

[goodfella] 23/1/2003 17:11

FTSE is playing out exactly as per my earlier post.

It is still not clear if it is a symettrical triangle and it has already broken down and any up move is a backtest or if it is a descending triangle and we have a small e wave to come up before breaking down.

Macd looks ominous and a break of 3600 signals a fall to 2800.

[energyi] 17/1/2003 17:50

DEVELOPMENTS (+) over weekend... then a POP Up & Drop on Tuesday am?

[goodfella] 17/1/2003 17:31

Ftse will struggle for direction with the US closed on Monday but it should have a hard job negotiating up through the break of the double top.




It may attempt to backtest the broken support line shown on the 60 min chart which would take the appearance of a weak right shoulder on the daily chart before the break of the neckline and another visit to 3613

Additionally the break of the double top gives a target of 3613.

This will be the acid test for FTSE as a break of 3600 targets 2900.

It looks more like a descending triangle so FTSE could bounce of 3620 this time to form an E wave before finally giving up the ghost

[brain smiley] 14/1/2003 15:56

very true.

[mildeel] 14/1/2003 15:55

I am sure you are right, yf.

:O)

[yf23_1] 14/1/2003 15:20

I'm not predicting it, just pointing out what can happen when deflation hits, how long it takes and how the US could be starting a similar cycle.

[mildeel] 14/1/2003 08:37

Very interesting comparison yf23_1.

However, there are differences that may alter the timescales somewhat (like the fact that in 1991 Japan wasn't just about to invade another country to steal its oil, er... I mean, liberate its people...)

I don't think the up-blip will take until April.... how's about the end of this week?

;O)

[thebarrelboy] 14/1/2003 06:55

provalis still struggling. lol.

[yf23_1] 14/1/2003 03:53

Nikkei v DOW

Try shifting the DOW back so that the present is at where Japan was at the beginning of 1991.
Similar pattern formation.
Which would mean a slight rebound to april then downhill for the next 18 months before flattening out for 10 years.

[yf23_1] 14/1/2003 03:31

Gold is getting into a tight trading range of $352-354.
So you might be right, a break out of this range could be accompanied by an equity breakout too.

[energyi] 13/1/2003 11:18

TIME TO REVIVE this thread.

The Pins are nearly set, and time for BOWLing is soon

[goodfella] 14/12/2002 00:00

I have been doing some work on vastly overpriced Semiconductor stocks in the US.

They are a geared play on the market and some of them have had fantastic run in the rally and if you believe the market is set to make new lows these are the boys that offer the biggest gains on the short side.

It is not finished yet but the Key Reversal Highlights are there.

If you believe as I do that we are in a corrective wave and the next leg down is due soon then PAGE 2 contains the FIbbonacci retracement levels for entry points.

If we are in a wave 2 then the retracements should not exceed 61.8% but I am spiraling into the stocks at each retracement level

[pommy] 13/12/2002 14:32

gunners 2nd team!!

and thats as good as it gets!!!!

[goodfella] 13/12/2002 14:30

pommy

At least we thrashed the Gunners at the Library :-))

[goodfella] 04/12/2002 13:44

BSY hit the top of a price channel at the top of the market and is now coming off and BT recived a downgrade today for what is still a ludicrously overvalued utility stock


(EXTEL) STOCKWATCH BT Group seen lower as Morgan Stanley downgrades to
STOCKWATCH BT Group seen lower as Morgan Stanley downgrades to 'underweight'

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in BT Group PLC were seen making a dull start to t
ade
this morning following news of a downgrade in stance by Morgan Stanley Dean
Witter, dealers said.
In comment published this morning, the US broker said it has reduced its
stance for the fixed line blue chip giant to 'underweight' from 'equal-weight',
with a reduced price target of 160 pence, implying 25 pct downside potential.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that recent weak trends in the sector challenge even
reduced consensus expectations for the group.
The broker said revisions to its estimates suggest BT will reach just 0.1
pct revenue growth in 2002-05, against a consensus of 3.0 pct growth.
Morgan Stanley estimates that BT's long-term EPS growth at less than 1 pct,
significantly weaker than consensus for other European public telecom operators,
has further to fall, in its view.
However, the broker noted that BT's pension risk is now limited, and is not
a concern in the short to medium term, in its estimation, with Morgan Stanley's
deficit valuation reaching 4.1 bln stg.
The broker added that while the minimum funding requirement for BT's pension
scheme is stringent, its gives scope to lower the deficit via increased return
assumptions.
Morgan Stanley expects BT Group's pension cash payments to increase, but
only to 305 mln per annum before tax.
However, overall the broker concluded that it thinks BT shares look
unattractive on cash measures, and dividend growth is limited.
In early pre-market trade, BT Group shares were indicated 3-1/4 pence lower
at 203-1/4.
jmh/ks
NNN

[goodfella] 03/12/2002 09:36

Technically last night on the Dow was a key reversal day and came within 3 points of my Elliot Wave target as the market made a new high but closed below the previous days low.

This was not confirmed by the S and P or the Nasdaq so we have cross market divergence and we need to see if we get key reversals on the weekly close

[goodfella] 03/12/2002 09:32

update from NACT thread


goodfella - 28 Nov'02 - 14:52 - 3591 of 3924 edit


Robbie

:-)).

On the Bowl thread I posted my target of 9176 -9200 in the original post of 4th November.

I am revising that to 9046.

I know for shorters it is annoying to keep waiting but think of the money you have saved and all those luvverly entry points.

the beauty of waiting is that if my targets get taken out then you dont get hurt at all as the next stop is in the 9350-9450 area and you can cut with small losses.

I noticed one thing yesterday when all were rallying REL was falling.

[mike_c] 27/11/2002 23:33

GF could you please post updated charts for the VIX and S+P if poss. Ta.

[mike_c] 27/11/2002 23:27

GF, personally I believe the dow will be the last to fall, during this bear market it has managed to resist any large falls thus far. 2000 peak of approx 11,000 and yet 3 years into this market it sits at 9,000. Only a matter of time in my opinion before the last so called safe havens begin to crumble, which will signify final capitulation during 2003. I have faith in the charts with a long term target of Dow 6,000 and FTSE 2,700-3,000. Oh once again cheers for the timing I shorted BSY at 650 and then longed it at 630, nice one.

[mick p] 27/11/2002 22:21

Barrel boy,

Not to defend GF (I'm sure he can do that for himself) but have you read the biege book today?

It stinks.....consumers moving to discount stores, reduced spending on big ticket / luxury goods (this is the US, reliant on consumer spending)....then look at the softening of housing, service industry, lack of capex.....

OK, that was for Oct / early Nov and markets look forward.....but I see no great improvement in the US economy, in fact, I see a prolonged slow descent once the market (Institutions this time) end up painted into the corner from which it costs a fortune to escape...


This rise is set up for one reason, the release of capital from one group to those who always accumulate it.....

check out who started the 1929-32 crash and why....(and they were not from the US)