Hollywood Bowl Share Discussion Threads

[goodfella] 21/11/2002 19:23

Dont panic we are nearly there.

[boobly] 21/11/2002 17:32

Looks like the sun`s rising to me ... Which way up do you have your screen ?

[mad4it] 21/11/2002 17:31

gf

Did you watch the action on CTM today ? I was busy so I didn't follow it.

[goodfella] 21/11/2002 17:23

Keep your powder dry..wonderful opportunity coming soon.

VIX chart

[goodfella] 21/11/2002 09:12

My intial post targets still stands and I am looking for the top around Mon-Wednesday next week.

What has thrown everyone is the Fibbonacci time counts have become inverted and people are seeing bottoms which in fact will turn out to be tops



Keep your powder dry for shorting as this will be the best XMAS present you will ever get if this rally fails.

[championismo] 12/11/2002 16:01

Goodfella,

What charting packages do you use?

My views on the DOW:

[wageslave] 11/11/2002 23:34

Goodfella, surely the market will fall and then find some strength and technically bounce tommorow. Markets do not go in straight lines. Any important announcements in the pipeline?

[ahkeen] 11/11/2002 22:57

goodfella,

Excellent thread.

Andy.

[goodfella] 11/11/2002 22:53

SOX as highlighted last week now down near 10% in just two sessions

[insider trader.] 07/11/2002 16:49

FTSE 2500 DOW 3500

[yf23_1] 07/11/2002 16:47

FTSE is way out of line with Euro land indices.
The reason for that outperformance has long gone.
FTSE 3500 coming up.

[goodfella] 07/11/2002 16:35

Bye Bye FTSE

Possibly one more leg up then Bulls can kiss FTSE goodbye

[moonblue] 05/11/2002 11:33

oh and sap ...germany....goodfella your speeling has been affested by the company you keep

[moonblue] 05/11/2002 11:32

rsa
mpi
sig
gsk

[hectorp] 05/11/2002 09:25

Goodfella - very good introductory post on this thread.
Charlieboyo - you won't need a disaster to prompt a bear movement down! You'd need to be desparate of you need a Caldera erruption in the US. it would obliterate 4-5 cities and create 4-5 years of winter. In fact the US would possibly not survive it.
Question - I've been long BAT for the last 2 weeks... anyone consider its worth holding onto it? I'm up 38 points since 623 ( now 661)
Cheers
H.

[antonios] 05/11/2002 09:13

I shouldn`t bother

[charlieboyo] 04/11/2002 19:17

If your looking for a bowling ball, especially one large enough to start wave 3 of 3 from the all time highs.

Here is a crazy idea, earthquakes/volcano activity has been strange recently, maybe we will get the Big one that is due in either California, or a massive Kracatoa (with Tsuami wave) type explosion in the SW Pacific, that hits Japan in a big way.

Going to look more closely at this, to see whether it is a non starter.

Probabaly can`t help with trading but the very long term Elliot wave theroy, would be looking for some big external factor, as an economic or psycolocigal trigger

[insider trader.] 04/11/2002 14:49

RR.= With decreasing revenue in the Airline sector, I see this companys future wobbly as well, long term, should be ok, but the next 12 months or so...up and then back down.

[insider trader.] 04/11/2002 14:45

BAY = Balance sheet sucks, massive debt, they are increasing their customer numbers by reducing their air fares by 80% (lol).
How long they intend to keep this up is anyones guess, I guess they now believe profits are not important anymore, it's only passenger numbers that count. ;o)

[clerman] 04/11/2002 14:29

FINMAC

LOL !

Regards

Sport

[raven] 04/11/2002 14:27

I can't believe what I am seeing in the market today, the market is setting it's self up for one big crash.

I'm just sitting back, waiting for all the fireworks to go off at once.

[goodfella] 04/11/2002 14:22

Obiously should be Setting up the Ninepins (doh):-))

[goodfella] 04/11/2002 14:21

.I think you have to accept the possibility that this market could go to 9179-9200 in a blow off top if it takes out 8600.

The B wave to many will look like a bullish flag and a higher print high will bring in technical buyers that would target a print high of 9476

The fall from 10353 to 7282 discounting the failure low if 7197 offers a 78.6% retracement at 9179

The present wave count in the ABC correction again discounting the failure low offers the initial A wave from 7282 to 8558 as 1276 points with the B wave from 8558 to to 8198 being 360 points .

The impulse waves tend to have a Fibbonacci relationship and a 78.6% relationship would target 9200


This is the nearest I can get on the Fibbonacci probabilities and it matches with the pyshchology as we near the August highs of 9077 the newspapers and talking heads will all be full of headlines .

"If we take out 9077 then a double bottom will be made and signal the end of the bear market."

Maria on CNBC will need several bathroom breaks as she will be positively gushing.

Joe public as we know always buys the top of the market and they will be well set up this time.

The smart money could be selling into the rise and a close below 8800 within a few days could give you the strongest sell signal you can get as failures of breakouts tend to do.


It looks like more and more bulls are coming out of the woodwork claiming this rally as the real deal and the start of the new bull market


Reasons: Earnings are improving with many companies meeting or beating estimates.

Conclusion : Wrong the bar has been lowered so far that it is nigh impossible to miss and the S and P is still trading at a PE of over 50 on true earnings when stripping out dubious accounting practices.

Reasons : Once the Sabre rattling has finished and war in Iraq starts it will be over quickly and the markets will rally further

Wrong : This will be a war of attrition and Saddam has learnt from his mistakes in the Gulf, and comparisons should be drawn with Somalia or Vietnam.

The USA is exhausting its own oil supply and with Iraq controlling 11% of the world supply this will simply not be a carpet bombing exercise.

Reason: The corporate malfeasance has finished and there are no more skeletons in the closet.

Wrong : Even the Government are less than squeaky clean and the difference between S and P " as reported earnings and true earnings is huge and the pensions bombshell will be the next shoe to drop.


The market is still trading on ratios akin to bull market tops rather than bear market troughs as although prices have come down so have earnings.

This thread is to nominate the SKITTLES which are presently being Setup with this rally and trading well above their fundamental value as when the rally ends although not shortable at present they will start to fall like NINEPINS and they won’t be stood up again for a long time.

I will start with BSY trading on a forward PE Of 70 for 2003 and a dubious balance sheet in respect of its valuation.

Also BT extremely shaky balance sheet with anemic growth and still ridiculously high rating for a utility company.

No need to post charts just observations