Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[pixi] 16/12/2016 09:40

I've just another 15,000 at 2.15.

[topicel] 16/12/2016 09:25

If all this wasn't macro I'd be really worried. The fact that it is, and not company specific, means selling isn't required unless you are leveraged or stopped out.

As DT says, leaving before, or even just after Trump, even a week later, was the wise call to preserve 'paper' wealth. Ironic, using that term given all we know about it being the 'enemy to PMs'...

But if anyone is concerned just read my points about inflation, debt ceiling freeze ending and the biggie, unserviceable US debt, both governmental and domestic and corporate, and relax!

If rates go up the foreclosure so will start again for instance. As the dollar keeps rising the US exports dry up and these multi-nationals will be losing out to Trumps best friends, the Chinese...

Is he likely to want them to redouble their exports into the US? Again, I don't think so. Add upcoming China economic conflict to the Russian cyber conflict Obama is going to leave behind...

Ho hum. I'm not usually so convinced about bad economic conditions as a natural optimist, but has anyone here not come to the same conclusions? Even Hectcorp seems to be convinced the rising dollar and Trump's plans will continue the smash on PMs and related investments!

Give yourself a shake H...the contrarian view is unavoidably correct this time mon ami.

Topicel

[scottishfield] 16/12/2016 09:17

Good post topicel, thanks.

[topicel] 16/12/2016 09:14

Shaky, the Fed is independent to a point. The individual members are appointed by the President and two places are currently vacant. If Trump wants his people to fill them, he will do so.

Then, two need replacing in 2018 as their term ends, and that includes Yellen who has said she would not seek to continue anyway.

Therefore, into the heart of the Trump government the Fed will have his ear. And who is to say he can't make an executive order and replace Yellen next month? It seems Obama was happy to use said instrument quite freely, more so than generally appreciated.

But I repeat, ad infinitum, the Fed can't raise rates or the interest payments on the debt will totally floor any US economic growth aims of Trump. The inflation is set to go crazy, almost as bad as the 70s? Who knows, but oil is again the key as it was then - not many remember perhaps, but it was chaos - with a 100% annualised hit to inflation coming next month.

Finally, if all that wasn't enough, the debt ceiling freeze is to be repealed in March. The Democrats almost certainly set that as their date in case they lost the election. It simply takes us back to the 2010/11 days of gridlock.

When, btw, gold hit its all-time peak dollar valuation...

And in the inflation and the $20t national debt servicing preventing rate rises, you would be hard pressed to deny PMs have a very fair chance of resuming their push north soon.

And what is Obama about to do to respond to Russian hacking, "at a time of our choosing", and which quite clearly Trump doesn't agree with? A dash of tension is good for stocks and bad for gold is it? Lol.

Topicel

[dt1010] 16/12/2016 09:09

who knows where the low is

its not about picking the bottom accurately but being within 5-10% of it.

same for the top too, always leave something on the table for the next mug.

[stevea171] 16/12/2016 08:55

Me too-ers selling this morning after the falls yesterday, but these prices are likely to be the lows imo. $500 gold coming I think not!

Gold and silver have started going back up today after the engineered slaughter over the previous 24 hours. Confidence will return and many of those selling out yesterday will buy back. Rinse, repeat.

[majorpain2] 16/12/2016 08:48

Rates rising are not good for USA debt, nor for USA Consumers with less spending power and a higher dollar means lower overseas revenues for multinationals etc which makes the stock market all time high a little worrying.

The entire thing since 2008 is just a massive hot air bubble, and the longer it goes on the harder it is for central banks to paper over the cracks without a crash! Its getting to either crash the economy with high interest rates, or crash pension funds with low interest rates. Someone soon is going to lose out big style.

[edjge2] 16/12/2016 08:26

Larry edelsson sees gold up with rates
hxxp://www.moneyandmarkets.com/rising-rates-whats-big-deal-83568

Can't see how rising interest rates are good for USA debt.

[goldenshare888] 16/12/2016 07:49

PM train leaving the station........:))))))))

[shakeypremis] 16/12/2016 07:44

Trump doesn't have control over what the FED do. The privately owned central bank is independent and does as it pleases (well does whatever the owners - whoever they are - want).

[lauders] 16/12/2016 01:34

IF it repeats! That is a big "if" at the moment. Seems we are headed down (see pieces below) and the bears have it for the moment. The article thinks we will bounce next year. Perhaps! Down below your 20 level on the chart now I would think SG.



Also:

Gold and Fed rates – it’s going to be a bumpy road for gold

Gold prices continued to fall as the US dollar strengthened.

While markets 100% anticipated the Fed rate hike the reality still caused the US dollar to rise causing gold prices to continue to slide.

The danger for gold is that further rate rises through 2017 could hold back normal price appreciation and cause gold to weaken further.

Physical demand for gold is likely to rise as investors in weaker currency regions will use gold, copper and other metals to hedge against further US dollar appreciation.

Currency forecasting is notoriously difficult and it may be that the US dollar is already pricing in much its eventual gain.

The flip side is that when the US dollar goes up it affects currencies around the rest of the world. China is likely to allow the renminbi to weaken further and competing nations will need to remain competitive with China.

We do not want to predict a rerun of the Asian Crisis but sudden currency collapse is a very real threat with South Korea looking vulnerable due to political crisis.

These last points are good for gold, so we can but forecast greater volatility and a strategy to buy the dips.

(Have to delete the periods before and after the name of the website!)

Nobody really knows what's going to happen. The last sentence is VERY true.

Is Trump's administration really going to follow what Obama's administration just implemented when he gets in? They can say 3 possible rate hikes in 2017 but did Trump really agree to that or will it all change in 2017?

[saturdaygirl] 15/12/2016 21:04

If history repeats ?

[shakeypremis] 15/12/2016 20:59

Let's just see what happens if they do raise those rates. Even if they don't the economies of the world are still going to crash and burn. If they raise more it just happens faster.

[stevea171] 15/12/2016 20:24

Yellen has a complete history of BS and incompetence just like those Fed presidents before her which is why Trump will not re-appoint her and she should be sacked Jan 21 if this were possible.

She is now talking about raising rates continuously for the next 3 years but will instead likely be forced to start reducing next year due to final admission of a recession.
She talks about US 'full employment' as though the 10's of millions that are on food stamps and 10's of millions more who have given up looking for work because there is none so excluding them from the unemployment stats don't exist.

>>>"Now that Donald Trump has won the election, the Federal Reserve has decided now would be a great time to start raising interest rates and slowing down the economy. Over the past several decades, the U.S. economy has always slowed down whenever interest rates have been raised significantly, and on Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise rates by a quarter point. Stocks immediately started falling, and by the end of the session it was their worst day since October 11th.

The funny thing is that the Federal Reserve could have been raising rates all throughout 2016, but they held off because they didn’t want to hurt Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the election.

And during Barack Obama’s eight years, there has only been one rate increase the entire time up until this point.

But now that Donald Trump is headed for the White House, the Federal Reserve has decided that now would be a wonderful time to raise interest rates. In addition to the rate hike on Wednesday, the Fed also announced that it is anticipating that rates will be raised three more times each year through the end of 2019…

Fed policymakers are also forecasting three rate increases in 2017, up from two in September, and maintained their projection of three hikes each in 2018 and 2019, according to median estimates. They predict the fed funds rate will be 1.4% at the end of 2017, 2.1% at the end of 2018 and 2.9% at the end of 2019, up from forecasts of 1.1%, 1.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in September. Its long-run rate is expected to be 3%, up slightly from 2.9% previously. The Fed reiterated rate increases will be “gradual.̶1;

[dt1010] 15/12/2016 19:39

It will bounce, watch it happen.

A lot of money to be made in PM stocks in the coming months.

[daybreakers] 15/12/2016 17:46

However I'm expecting a temporary bounce in pm's in January.

[dt1010] 15/12/2016 17:12

The Fed should be abolished.

[jimbowen30] 15/12/2016 17:07

DT - wrong the Fed said last Dec they would raise rates FOUR times this year and we've just had the first! No one should believe a word they say but markets are crazy at the moment and the herd hangs on their every word.

[onedayrodders] 15/12/2016 16:46

The FED has raised twice in 8 years ... would you take their guidance about 2017 ?
They virtually admitted yesterday's one was more about their credability

[topicel] 15/12/2016 16:34

That is the conventional logic Daybreakers. I don't think much has been conventional of late, do you?

Historically gold rises with Rate hikes as it is usually accompanied by inflation. Inflation is the friend of PMs as a safe haven store of value.

You can leverage even better in PM related EFTs and individual stocks. To the downside as well, and I think we've been seeing that recently, don't you?

Ultimately the balance of money is presently more inclined to take the easy route and follow the DOW. But as the dollar gets stronger it again adds to inflation and kills exports so growth stalls.

In other words, as has been said so often and better than by me, what Trump wants to do is only possible if he addresses the strength of the dollar and that means low rates for longer to take the heat out of everything. Once that becomes fully apparent back again the money will flow to PMs.

The only question is how long? You seem to ignore the PM prices in Shanghai too which just keep getting more attractive by the day. Once the Sharia money really comes into gold and silver products then IMHO the Yanks will be unable to keep the pretence up much longer and the fix will be broken.

Simply because they will not have access to the gold to fulfill contracts which is what is required under the Sharia code. Unless you think Trump is gonna backtrack on his gold beliefs too - and many of his cabinet and backers btw...

Topicel

[daybreakers] 15/12/2016 16:10

silver will hit lower, give it time. With 3 hikes expected next year, pm's won't do very well. poor senitment. The gold rally we had this year was a bear rally, I expect to see lower gold like $900 and silver back to $13.

[pixi] 15/12/2016 15:53

Of late, their attacks don't seem to be having as great an effect on miners as they once did. HOC and HGM have stood up well and people are not freaking out. I suspect that they cannot have much ammunition left to smash PM's down with.