Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[chillwill] 20/12/2016 16:35

Aye, 150p would be a nice area to buy... might stop at 183p briefly imo (maybe for a quick rebound to 200p). Let's face it, anything under £2 is cheap, although it can remain cheap for a while!

[daybreakers] 20/12/2016 16:06

I'm waiting for silver the hit the 14's before I buy here around 145

[topicel] 20/12/2016 15:50

Be nice to get Chipperfield's view on that Comex/SGE arbitrage at the moment Stevea.

He has a good grasp of the Comex OI and movements.

Topicel

[topicel] 20/12/2016 15:46

Ahem, I know nothing about the US tax system but, if it's as complex as ours then I wish Trump well with making any changes to the system that are either palatable or possible.

It sounds like you are still in euphoria mode along with most of Wall Street. They are simply window dressing to the end of the year. They understand nothing can be done.

One line tax. Lol. Has it not been shown that no direct tax is equally appealing and works very well with lots of indirect taxes on what folk like to do and use as the revenue stream. Somewhere like Rumania or some such tried it.

Of course, all systems have flaws. The point is Trump can't cut taxes without support from his own party to increase the debt ceiling to pay for the near term loss of revenue. He's still got to pay Obama's bills you know. Meanwhile, less tax is coming in from US car workers and Caterpillar workers that will be making unemployment claims instead...

Topicel

[obbig60] 20/12/2016 15:10

I'm finding all this rather frustrating. I'd love to buy some physical silver right now but every time the $USD price falls the GBP-USD exchange rate falls in step - so the price of silver in GBP stays nearly the same. I think what is happening is not so much the price of silver/gold falling but the value of the $ rising.

[marcusm1000] 20/12/2016 13:50

I`m not much of a chartist does that look like a inverse H&S on both Gold and Silver 10 year charts anyone please?

[pineapple1] 20/12/2016 13:40

Chart looks a little like an H@S (small undeveloped shoulders but the pattern nonetheless). Neckline roughly £2.
Target.....rather ugly if it plays out....

Plus side HOC is a great well managed company with the main man having lots of skin in the game but seems like that makes no difference at the moment for some reason.
imho

[breaktwister] 20/12/2016 13:22

Fyi I continue to see this as bargain prices to buy physical so continue to stack, but very wary of leveraged play like HOC

[breaktwister] 20/12/2016 13:21

*backing up the truck

[breaktwister] 20/12/2016 13:20

The only reason that I am not yet backing up the track is that there is no chart support here til 150 and now silver has broken thru 16 no chart support til 14 there. Look at the price of HOC last time silver was at 14....

[johntrustee] 20/12/2016 12:33

Arthur Laffer has shown that the government gets the greatest tax income when the rate is 19%. The idea being that people stop trying to avoid tax with some of these dodgy schemes. Reducing taxes to one rate of 19% and no deductions after your tax-free personal allowance means a one line tax return. All those tax experts would be out of work. That alone would boost the economy. Expect some surprises from Mr Trump. He has set a course on a radical change of government economic policies

[topicel] 20/12/2016 12:03

Trump plans to use low interest rates to fuel the business community to expand the US economy. How does that square with the Fed continuing to raise rates three times this year?

Things are simple in economics. For some reason everyone is making it complicated and/or we are being fed deliberate misinformation by the media that 95% believe because it is far too complicated for most.

Me included. Which is why I boil it down to the basics of economics. They can't change them and therefore a weaker dollar is the only answer as rates can't rise with the expansion Trump wants and the impact on the debt repayments preclude it.

The answer, temporarily, as Charles said is QE4 and yet on each previous occasion the money has not trickled into the US economy but been used to pay dividends and buy back stock. Hence the DOW going up and up on a powder puff of imaginary fiat currency.

Many can't get their heads around it, And I was one of them until recently. Understanding that all currencies have a limited life cycle by researching that very fact has convinced me. Because we just spend the stuff and have always had it we are unaware in our brief lifetimes that it is a terminal commodity.

Unlike certain PMs I could mention...they don't disappear and get reinvented. I wonder why JPM are adding to their silver stash in unprecedented volumes...?

Topicel

[topicel] 20/12/2016 11:49

Johntrustee, you mustn't focus on cutting taxes as a stimulus for the US economy. They can't let the revenue fall any more than it has already without pushing the debt even further out of control.

Like it isn't already! The Tea Party and other Republican right wing forces would be fine with cutting taxes but not, absolutely not, if it meant increasing the debt ceiling. That is due for major political turmoil in March 2017. Indeed the Yanks have just passed a bill to allow the present administration to keep spending beyond Dec 9th as they are already unable to run things.

Let them have their holidays and it will all be front and centre in the New Year. The DOW is running on fumes based on nothing. They must address the debt and tax cuts doesn't do that even if it did stimulate business in a year or two. The same time delay on infrastructure spending too of course, and the headache that it brings inflation and thus rate rises in the meantime.

So back to square one. They have to devalue the dollar first.

Topicel

[topicel] 20/12/2016 11:38

Indeed Charles, that is the easiest way to both weaken the dollar again and keep the sugar supply dripping into Wall Street.

The only trouble with QE4 is it appears to be having less and less effect each time.

That is why I would expect some kind of combination of QE and protectionism to devalue the dollar. Any stronger and the US companies are in big trouble. A businessman at the helm won't allow that scenario to go much further come January 20.

It makes no sense to leave the dollar free to appreciate. QED! QE4 and perhaps a partial peg to gold...?

He has said he rues the day Nixon took away the remaining part of the dollar that was still tied to the gold standard in 1971. He has big backers, and many in his admin who are gold supporters too, like Pence.

Now that would be a nice boost for gold but like I say it would need to recognise the loss in purchasing power via-a-vis gold of the dollar of, say, the last eight years...

Who knows? I'm not one to offer a cure but I know that a strong dollar is intolerable for the Yanks as things stand, and all it would lead to...

Topicel

[charles clore] 20/12/2016 11:30

Although I have trimmed my holding I will never sell out of this one. It's a quality company producing gold and silver at low cost with a dividend to boot. In the current manipulated market where fortunes can turn on a sixpence I would rather not be trading at all but needs must.

[charles clore] 20/12/2016 10:17

Devaluation by dilution. More QE

[topicel] 20/12/2016 10:04

Dollar strong might give Trump a major headache as he assumes the Presidency.

It can only impact negatively on the exports in much the same way that the 15% drop in sterling since Brexit has aided our exports. Or doesn't basic economics work the same in the States? Lol.

The majority of the DOW, the main driver of the stock market bubble since the election is made up of constituent corporations that largely earn their dollars that feed through to the profit line and earnings per share ratios from overseas. They will start hurting and the next quarter earnings season in mid-January will include a significant impact.

The quarter announced in April will be pretty horrendous versus a year earlier when the dollar/yen, to name one, was around 5% lower. Check the dollar index and see how this must play out on the US earnings front. Or again I ask, doesn't basic economics work that way Stateside?

So clearly Wall Street and businessman President Trump will not like an overly strong dollar. What measures, economically-speaking, can he utilise to curb this rampaging dollar? It sure as hell won't be by allowing the Fed to raise interest rates, will it? Independent or not, he has two 'picks' to put on the board of the FOMC to help sway them to a more cautious path, just as in 2016. And, strangely, Yellen seems inclined to be dovish so is actually an ally to him IMHO.

When we see the rhetoric against China growing by the day, and the disquiet from submersible drone theft to yuan devaluation to insufficient tariffs protecting US from Chinese imports, it is easy to see a fight back on the currency front and protectionism as the only real tool he has to hand. Infrastructure spending and dollar repatriation can't happen overnight, we still have a debt ceiling in March 2017 to negotiate over and even if Tea Party types allow a fiscal increase it takes ages to work through and causes inflation which normally is dealt with by interest rate increases. Unless basic economics don't apply Stateside? Lol.

But he doesn't want rate rises as that will strengthen the dollar, not to mention add more interest repayment burden on the $20t debt mountain! Talk about stymied..

My bet, for what it's worth, is therefore the fight back on the currency front will be a devaluation of some sort in the US dollar. All the charges aimed at China and even the EU are destined to lead to Trump signing an executive order to depreciate the dollar in some way or another.

Economically he can't really do anything with a strong dollar. The news out of Japan is not helping that overnight either...or doesn't basic economics apply to the US of A?

Topicel

[dstorey1] 20/12/2016 08:36

But according to US futures the World is all soft and fuzzy:)

[rhuvaal2] 19/12/2016 22:51

DT1010 ~ you're quite right, sometimes the figures look confusing! I am near fully into PM's and intend to stay put, mostly at some kind of profit: having cash set aside for whatever the scenery in 2017

Russian ambassador shot in Turkey tonight, plus dire things going on in Berlin: one day there'll be a biggie. None could tempt me into general markets at the moment and I shall ride the dips however huge they may become.

edit: if one in ten Joe Bloggs bought a micro gold or silver coin = the banks couldn't cope, etc

[charles clore] 19/12/2016 21:28

Talking books