Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[dt1010] 11/12/2016 21:16

Good UP next week coming.

You heard it here first ;)

[stevea171] 11/12/2016 19:08

Hector. History may not be a reliable pointer to what happens next or next year.

We are into uncharted waters in every possible way - not least with the long absence of markets and pure fraud and manipulation that has been taking place 24/7 by the CB's and orchestrated in Washington.

[hectorp] 11/12/2016 18:09

pixi earlier - we have to distinguish between " traders" of gold and silver and retail buyers of metals, which is very much a bullish situation. People are stacking very avidly. The more people educated to the value of phys, the more it will help the overall situation of PM's ( ie positively). But it is galling, that every pro-gold newflow in politics is interpreted as a good signal for the Dow or whatever.

[topicel] 11/12/2016 18:08

Sad I know but what we are really hoping for at this juncture is things to go belly up in the States and globally.

The outcome would be good for gold and silver as the stock market retraces and probably the dollar does to. But the real requirement is inflation and that is what we are seeing in our weekly shop, if nowhere else, of late.

The rest follows, as the oil price last January was around 30 bucks and that will be hit by prices around 50 dollars meaning annualised inflation will sky rocket thought the early part of 2017.

It adds tremendous fuel to a fire that Trump will need to contain or he can't go gung-ho with his plans to make America great again ... And a strong dollar ain't gonna help his aim to export more either.

These are signs the market are ignoring for some reason. His administration and backers are also known to have a soft spot for the old gold standard, or something similar...

Topicel

[stevea171] 11/12/2016 11:05

Lauders. Not to worry! The traditional Santa rally seems to be superimposed on the Trump euphoria. Although a rate hike by the Fed should be priced in, it could rain on the parade from this Friday 16/12. Anyone buying ordinary stocks here needs their head examining imo!
At the latest I see January down for stocks and up for gold after a Xmas/New Year period when the light volumes means prices can move ahead with little institutional participation.

Topicel. The Peruvian sol (= Sun, Inca connection) as you say is quite a stable currency as the country is quite stable politically.
The San Jose mine in Argentina economics are likely to be further improved.

[topicel] 11/12/2016 08:54

Intrigued, I discovered the Peruvians use a currency called the Sol, which was introduced in 1991 - then called the New Sol - as the replacement for the Inti which had been hit in the late 80s by hyperinflation.

The Inti was replaced by one Sol at the rate of 1 to a million! An example of the kind of inflation described in many of the gold bug links we see on here...

Anyway, subsequently, and maybe because of the strong PM markets, the Sol has retained a low inflation rate and apparently the lowest rate ever in Latin America!

The exchange rate against the dollar, which is what we are concerned about here, has remained relatively steady against the dollar over this quarter century period, moving between 2.2 and 3.66 to the USD.

Not much impact since Trump either. So indeed, the article is irrelevant to HOC. Which is a surprise to me but good insofar as stable is positive too!

Topicel

[lauders] 11/12/2016 00:32

Steve - Good point! Completely overlooked that so embarrassed smiley from me here. FRES certainly worth a look as it gets lower. When the bounce comes they should do well as Topicel says. As he also says the Peruvian Peso can't be too different. Looks like OUR views on the future are aligned and "the it can't continue as we are" mind-set is what we believe, however that doesn't stop us from getting it wrong. I hope we aren't. Will the Dow really keep going up and up? The US $ too? Perhaps, but for how long? All questions to be answered over the course of time only.

[topicel] 10/12/2016 17:52

Indeed, I made the point almost immediately after Trump's win as the Mexican peso nosedived. Fresnillo's wage bill will be reduced in dollar reporting terms quite substantially.

And we all know that wages are the largest percentage of most large corporates' balance sheet...

I'm sure the Peruvian Peso, lol, isn't really that strong either though Stevea?!

Lauders, interesting piece. Glad that you observed that we are all just guessing as to what is coming next, although that item and my own thoughts how this must end are aligned.

I cannot see the dollar rampage being allowed to gain more momentum beyond Trump. He simply can't allow it if he's going to make America great again. And pay the bills!

Topicel

[stevea171] 10/12/2016 15:14

Lauders. Post 8927 above:
"So all the costs will be in Pesos while the money they raise on the markets will be in dollars - so they'll be quids in.'
He cites Great Panther Silver Ltd (NYSE:GPL, TSE:GPR), which has just changed its reporting currency to US dollars. Others exposed to Mexico are Endeavour Silver Corp (TSE:EDR) and Hochschild Mining PLC (LON:HOC)."

This article is incorrect. HOC has no operations in Mexico so no costs in Mexican pesos. They are confusing HOC with FRES. Fresnillo should benefit significantly.

[lauders] 10/12/2016 04:19

Another opinion on the price of gold and the future:

The bottom line is speculators' extreme gold-futures selling has been the dominant driver of gold's steep post-election plunge. Their near-record rush for the exits blasted gold lower so fast that investors were spooked into fleeing. But speculators' epic futures long liquidation that crushed gold sure looks to be exhausting itself. So many gold-futures longs have been dumped that there simply aren't many left to sell.

And once speculators' aggressive gold-futures selling ceases, gold prices will stabilize which will arrest the parallel investor selling. That decisive bottoming will pave the way for gold's young bull market to resume. Investors will soon realize their radical underinvestment in gold isn't very wise, especially with wildly-overvalued stock markets trading at euphoric record highs. New investment demand will propel gold far higher.

Another part from the article seems interesting to me:

This week federal-funds futures are implying a 93% chance of a rate hike next week, and it was way up at 99% as December dawned. So a rate hike won't surprise anyone, including speculators trading gold futures. The big risk comes from the accompanying quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, which shows where top Fed officials making decisions expect the federal-funds rate to be in the coming years.

The last SEP, or “dot plot”, in late September showed Fed officials forecasting two rate hikes in 2017. Gold could see significant futures short selling if that increases to three. But if the Fed indeed hikes next week, it will have to be super-dovish in the rest of its communications to avoid spooking stock markets. Thus it's unlikely a hawkish SEP would be published the same day, greatly lessening the downside risk to gold.

Soon speculators and investors alike will realize how radically oversold gold is, and how anomalous its extreme post-election selloff was. These record-high stock markets literally trading at bubble valuations remain overdue to roll over into a new bear no matter what Trump does. And his proposed tax cuts and big government spending will ignite serious inflation. All of that is very bullish for gold investment demand!

So if the views expressed in the article are anywhere near accurate it will be good for individual companies as also stated in the same article here in the following paragraph from the above:

While investors can certainly play the coming resumption of gold's young bull in that leading GLD gold ETF, individual gold stocks will really amplify gold's gainsthe leading gold-stock index nearly tripled with a 182% gain! These huge gains were only reaped by smart contrarians willing to fight the crowd and buy low a year ago. The same is true today.



Hopefully my resolve to just buy and not trade in HOC will still pay off over 2017 and potentially into 2018 and beyond. However, I have about as much idea where we are heading as most and we are all just guessing.

[lauders] 09/12/2016 23:46

Would logically be Vanguard who are still causing weakness on any rise as they can dump more? When they decide to finish their reduction policy on HOC we will hopefully see a bit more strength than just that relating to any rise caused by silver and gold? Here is hoping anyway!

PS - Found this piece which seems interesting re: post Trump win and exchange rates:



Alastair Ford said: ''My own personal area of interest at this particular moment is what's happening in Mexico. I find the Mexican situation in regard to Trump to present serious opportunity. Trump seems to be quite anti Mexico and the Peso has been in freefall against the dollar. What that means for the Mexican silver miners, especially the ones that have their reporting currency in dollars is that their margins are going to swing wider and wider on currency difference. So all the costs will be in Pesos while the money they raise on the markets will be in dollars - so they'll be quids in.''

He cites Great Panther Silver Ltd (NYSE:GPL, TSE:GPR), which has just changed its reporting currency to US dollars. Others exposed to Mexico are Endeavour Silver Corp (TSE:EDR) and Hochschild Mining PLC (LON:HOC).

[juju44] 09/12/2016 23:40

You mean who is dumping HOC

[banj] 09/12/2016 22:09

Another 3m+ traded here today again, who is hovering HOC up?

[dt1010] 09/12/2016 22:04

There will be a scramble but during a crash gold get sold to cover equity losses
First off the blocks when the dust setes though

[pixi] 09/12/2016 21:37

What caused this gold sell-off this afternoon is futures speculators dumping their long positions triggering stops. Just like they did when Trump trashed Clinton and when Italy voted no. Stops get trashed which triggers even more selling. Wave after wave until they have cleared the decks.They cannot have many left to sell by now.

I figure with American markets at record highs (as per crash depression levels) and everyone selling off gold and silver over there, it was a pretty good time to buy HGM and HOC over here. HOC has held up really well today compared with HGM, but that difference has been apparent for a while.

When the next disaster strikes there will be a mad scramble to get back into gold.

[dt1010] 09/12/2016 19:58

I sold my traders today at 230

(Bought them at 214)

Bagged a nice little profit that I do t want to see wiped by next week.

Wanted out ahead of a drop in PMs in the run up to the Fed's decision early next week.

[edjge2] 09/12/2016 18:19

you got the aaz earlier I hope.
CC, THEY'RE TOO FOCUSSED I think
JNUG in states nearly 6.5. Probably 50 when gold finds its real level. Can't ISA IT.

[hectorp] 09/12/2016 18:05

PM's have to be forced lower in case half of Europe read the news about Monte del Pacshi.
If I were an Italiano, I'd do all I could to be getting my cash into PM's by now, and certainly reducing my cash balances to say 3000 Euros.

[pixi] 09/12/2016 16:09

Christmas shopping come early. HGM at 126 and HOC at 229 - the springs are creaking on my truck!

[goldenshare888] 09/12/2016 15:59

Obviously the place for our money is Banks, preferably insolvent ones!!

LOL

Turkeys/chickens will come home to roost very soon.........

:)

[charles clore] 09/12/2016 15:39

When their focus is entirely on keeping gold and silver down and everything else is dead - then perhaps we will see our biggest victory.

[stevea171] 09/12/2016 15:36

Topicel. Some variations allowed in the CB's play book. Can't always be exactly the same to allow for some surprise element?
Only constant seems to be to hit the PM's ahead of PM favorable news.

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