Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[february 30th] 20/12/2016 21:06

I think one has to judge success through the lens of Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness". If one had developed a particular view of the world and of markets in 2012, and stuck to it, one would have been very successful, even if that view had been generated by an original throw of a dice. You can only judge real skill across market conditions.

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 20:58

Read this and learn something Top

[topicel] 20/12/2016 20:55

Now you're getting the idea H!

20 Dec '16 - 19:52 - 9207 of 9219 1 0
Only four years ago shelton advocated a gold standard, redeemable T notes based on gold


She said it again in the Fortune link I gave above, and other more recent comments, as have Pence and others in and around Trump. Basically she is advocating a return to a gold standard gently, or as I put it, a small percentage.

Treasury notes will do it. It doesn't matter to me as long as it is backing the dollar it would mean gold was again a store of value and would appreciate accordingly, possibly to the values we are hearing about around $2,600...

After all this pain I'd not be closing my PM positions now. It is coming in some form or another, a decision to weaken the dollar and then back it at the new competitive rate with gold in some instrument or another.

I repeat. How can Trump make America Great Again with a strong dollar? Who would buy his goods? Think about it.

Topicel

[topicel] 20/12/2016 20:40

Exactly ODR. I think DT1010 changes like the wind and somehow misses the very simple economics here.

Rates can't rise as the debt is too big. It will kill any recovery in the States.

The dollar can't grow in strength Hectcorp, for the same reasons. It would prevent the economic recovery. The rise is being powered by the incumbents as a last ditch attempt to leave the scene looking rosy and also to close out of PM shorts and accumulate all they can.

This has meant the Fed rate rise and the threat of more than possible simply because it Spurs the dollar which will also hamper Trump. But he too has executive orders come Jan 20 and can rescind the Obama ones allowing the banksters access to the gold.

They know they'll lose all control and are making the best of it while they can.

Selling now was a very weak play just as happens so often. Selling mid-November would have been better but as pointed out no-one has hindsight. And certainly not me. But I have focused squarely on the basic economics as the portfolio has eroded and that has clarified my thoughts.

Weak dollar a must. Interest rates incompatible with that. All the important players moving into gold and silver (JPM aren't buying it like mad for no reason) and the arbitrage is telling us all this too. Now, after close inspection, the majority of Trump's team are believers in sound money backed in some way by gold.

We'll see. But I've not heard an answer as to why and how Trump can operate with a strong dollar and rising interest rates. Not one.

Topicel

[onedayrodders] 20/12/2016 20:40

Timely article just out following Topicels earlier posts

zerohedge ‏@zerohedge 4m4 minutes ago

Krugman: Trump's "Economic Team Is A Gathering Of Gold Bugs"

[topicel] 20/12/2016 20:22

And wouldn't it be a great signal if Dr. Shelton was announced early in the new administration as Trump's Fed Chair elect...

hxxp://thepulse2016.com/ralph-benko/2016/11/04/high-stakes-for-2016-judy-shelton-for-fed-chair-to-make-america-great-again/

It seems perfectly sensible and even likely that all the signs are pointing to someone, if not Judy Shelton, with a fondness for the structure and historical international cornerstone that is gold as head of the FOMC.

Any early indication of such an appointee in waiting - and don't forget we knew Carney was coming to the BOE about 15 months ahead of time - would be a sure sign that gold was in favour again at the highest levels. No more playing around with interest rates and the dollar without sound money to back it...

Oh, and Yellen has virtually resigned herself to not going beyond 2018. She knows the writing is on the wall, just as the banksters desperately trying to close their PM shorts and wreck things by bloating the dollar.

Oh again - Dr. Shelton is also fully supportive of the Chinese having a similar standard based around gold to support the Yuan. A stable east and west. Whatever next, all bound to gold.

Let's see how it pans out. I mean, who'd have thought Nixon would be the one to make a breakthrough with the Chinese in 1972...?

Topicel

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 20:18

hahaha listen to yourself.

You think one post can influence a billion pound miner's share price?

Get a life.

[saturdaygirl] 20/12/2016 20:18

Solid bounce or bear flag , at this moment in time the jury is out ?

[onedayrodders] 20/12/2016 20:15

DT like it or not your behavior and posts are common with classic deramping to influence your own book.

[onedayrodders] 20/12/2016 20:12

Hectorp20 Dec '16 - 19:40 - 9205


Dont believe everything Trump or his aides say... hes already watered down building the wall and as for draining the swamp hes filling it back up with a few Goldman people.

ps nice solid bounce in PM's

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 20:10

And you are destined to always be a judgmental outsider, dilbert.
Merry Christmas.

It's "you're" by the way, cough.

And don't tell me "your" dyslexic - you should have bloody learnt that one by now.

[onedayrodders] 20/12/2016 20:05

fair enough DT ..personally couldn't give a toss about ANY prop trader

[hectorp] 20/12/2016 20:05

Rodders, " the Genie"!
in an over volatile world set of economies, rate control cannot be made to happen in a measured way, when only one major currency goes the other way from the rest.

What if Sterling Euro Yuan and Yen are forced to raise rates because the US raises rates? Yet this is underlying the Trump vision. HE wants to force them out of negative rates. How do they square their own economy's circle? Does he employ gunboats? no, that wont work.
Trump doesn't care how the other nations sink or swim as he is not a globalist ( this a man with 500 directorships worldwide, not a globalist). Who's he kiddin.
I doubt we have seen the real Trump at all yet.

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 19:57

OneDay, it is pertinent what a successful prop trader in the City told me as she will have all the data and analysis and rumor mill on her finger tips. We are all outsiders. It was only her opinion though and I have to say, I disagree with it, FWIW.
But like I said, it is worrying.

P.S They won't default when they have a printing press, it will never happen.

[hectorp] 20/12/2016 19:52

Only four years ago shelton advocated a gold standard, redeemable T notes based on gold

[onedayrodders] 20/12/2016 19:46

DT .... are you serious with that post ? you seem intent on frightening multiple threads

Is it really relevant what some random "successful prop trader" says about the future

In any case if rates got anywhere near 3% let alone 17 or 18 the US would be in financial chaos and would have defaulted ... and what happens to PM's during a financial meltdown

[hectorp] 20/12/2016 19:40

" be more productive as a nation" ( Shelton)
" so that the trade we DO conduct does not permit those sort of tactics"
" Trump is against devaluation of currencies"! ( Shelton)
I dont think the dollar will be falling any year soon.

However, what is a strategy that would prevent the Japs or others from further devaluing. I do not know that strategy.
Trump ( ie Shelton here) suggests setting US up.. on a solid basis... she did see a role for gold in past speeches, but I doubt gold can be the mainstay of an alternative to the current fed system.

Of course any move to different economics ( ie sound economics with an anchor of some sort based in reality) would help, PM's regardless of whether there were a gold standard or no.
ONe last point though: has she and Trump taken JPM and Goldman's aside and told him their plans?
IF not, why not? oh well .

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 19:34

Friend of mine in the City (prop trader) said:

"they will fake the US recovery

rates will continue on up in 17 and 18

that is her betting..

until gold is at $750 and silver $10....!

it might take a couple of years to get to those values though, she said. Meanwhile the US stock market will continue to boom as will the dollar, and though 2017 will be very volatile the same trends in place now will continue.

She's very successful and quite well known in what she does. Certainly not to be ignored. I disagreed with her on pricing. But it did perk my ears up i have to admit.

A bit worrying too.

:(

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 19:18

I think we could well see 150p here as that is the next major support.

Should have sold the lot at 320p

Hindsight is a horrible thing

[hectorp] 20/12/2016 19:15

Why would the Fed derail the economy? No sense in that.
Though Obama will leave a whiz-bang or bomb no doubt.

[hectorp] 20/12/2016 19:13

Topicel,
If Trump wants a cheap dollar then he returns to the great game of deflating currencies to zero more or less. I cannot second guess his strategies.
What will he do about the Fed / Democrat influence there. again, there could be slow or sudden changes.
Also, some of his team are sound money people, even if not gold standard advocates as such. Instead, they may be advocates of the golden patriotic dollar, the dollar's power might be used as a psychological weapon to pull some ex democrats into acceptance. I cannot see a Radical Republican effort that has no strong dollar. Strenght of dollar, army, and stock market. A triumvitate.

If there are no other currencies of any value but only the dollar, other nations will use the US Dollar not their own. PAx Americana, strengthens. ( I dont believe it possible now however)
This has occurred all over the world already in the Far East and Middle East. What would I take to the Phillipines, Malaysia, or Bahrain? US Dollar Traveller's cheques used to be the very thing. I have spent US Dollars all around the world, eg, in Bali and Java. The problem is, the Dollar is not part of any level playing field.
I am now winding down as it were for the festive period and have family here and in Germany.
regards
H

[topicel] 20/12/2016 18:25

Maybe it is better in plain black and White...

hxxp://fortune.com/2016/08/18/trump-gold-standard-economic-advisor-woman-judy-shelton/

I don't think it can be any plainer that what we are seeing now are the bankster rats running around the deck of their sinking ship trying to gather together as much cheese as they can before it goes down.

And a new, gold-friendly and dollar controlled currency pegged international order comes to the fore. Interesting she suggests the US can do it unilaterally...

Topicel

[topicel] 20/12/2016 17:08

Hect, give this nice lady a listen.



She is close to Trump and whilst going back to the gold standard is probably impossible they are clearly thinking of doing something along the lines of making the dollar sound and perhaps quasi-tied to gold by a percentage, similar to how it was until Nixon broke all ties in 1971. Was it fixed at about 34% or something?

The idea of making some inroads to usurping the Fed and their 'anti-money' games as she calls it, and also countering the games of competitor nations who devalue is compelling.

Like I say, Trump can do little with a strong dollar. Many know this and are positioning now by bringing it up and PMs down in readiness to reverse directions as he takes over.

He could unilaterally devalue, be it with QE4 or simply as an executive order, a la Obama, and then make it stick with a 10% tie to the gold price as a signal of intent.

His vice-President Mr. Pence is another strong gold bug too btw, as are many of his biggest financial backers.

I don't see any reason to capitulate at this stage on PMs and related investments. A month ago, with hindsight, yes indeed. But not now. The dollar must be brought under control one way or another mon ami.

Topicel

[topicel] 20/12/2016 16:48

Maybe break even is safe H, I guess it is.

You question the dollar strength being reversed, or even handicapped. Well, for a few days now I've been opining that there is one thing Trump can't and does not want, and that is the strong dollar. Certainly not at these levels anyway.

Can he turn the markets though? A strong dollar will derail any of his plans to make America Great Again, n'est pas? It will far quicker cripple US exports and corporate profits than anything else he can enact or pass to the contrary in terms of tax reforms or fiscal stimulus via a big infrastructure spend announcement.

And he can't get approval to do one without compromising on the other as the Tea Party and other right-leaning Republican's won't let him raise the debt ceiling when it comes up for negotiation in March.

How everyone forgets the fun we had with that each year from 2011-13 until it was kicked into the long grass by bi-partisan agreement in 2015 until March 2017.

Anyway, the reality remains the dollar getting stronger is contrary to his plans. He must therefore either launch QE4 to weaken it or some other fix linked, possibly, whisper it, to gold...

Plenty of his advisors are pro-gold and want sounder money. They are also dead set against what the Fed has been doing.

I see no reason to expect the dollar to go to anything more than 120 JPY and DOW 20,000 before reality dawns.

I repeat, it is no good for the US to have a strong dollar. Trump might as well give up now if that remains the case.

Topicel

[charles clore] 20/12/2016 16:46

Daybreakers good luck with $14...

H - I hope Santa brings you what you want this year. That silver kilo - were you really going to sell it - or just getting an estimate?