Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[chillwill] 21/12/2016 12:40

Maxi - agree on the 183p (I posted this yesterday), the 150p 61.8% looks more enticing though.

SG - not a H&S patter at all; have a look in a mirror and see if your shoulders line up like that.

[hectorp] 21/12/2016 12:32

Topicel, I can see how the others can't raise rates, thanks... but the US dollar simply continued to rise...
Should they devalue, then, say 20%, 50% , would be a big shift... link it to gold though, but they might be forced to Audit Fort Knox - good luck with that!

Meanwhile Obarma is still making powerful bills, banning oil development in most of the US Arctic. He may run through a couple more shockers in the next couple of weeks.

[stevea171] 21/12/2016 12:01

Institutions and traders winding down from here on in for Xmas/New Year break. I have been doing likewise for some time now.

I am not bothered by these PM prices or the prices for the miners as I'm not a buyer or seller. I fully expect prices for our investments will be back to where they were or a lot higher as we go through 2017. HOC is a great investment that has made massive progress in the past 18 months so the current price and more is fully warranted.

FY results next year should reflect decent profitability, another dividend payment and prospects for continuation into a possible Ftse100 candidate in due course. The future is well assured, the company is conservative and well run. I see no need for the current mood of panic by some traders on this thread. Most of us have lived through this scenario many times before of manipulated falling PM prices.

I'm not desperate to make a buck here in current conditions. I have a full life and other interests besides the stock market. Merry Xmas to you all.

[franceys] 21/12/2016 10:17

Topicel..great French..you must have gone to an excellent school! I like your well reasoned and sensible post as well. Ditto tuscan4's one. Am now buying these again.

[tuscan4] 21/12/2016 10:05

I am a frustrated viewer of this site. Many of the views are very short term, influenced by much random noise,where emotion dominates investment thinking.
Can I make a few points.
1) Little notice should be taken of the PM price moves. They are heavily manipulated therefore charts should be treated with circumciscion.
2) Look at the real physical price to gauge sentiment.
3)A strong $ is positive for Sterling holders. The fall in the Sterling price is relatively benign.
4)Whilst Gold is fundamentally difficult to price determine, Silver is less so with perhaps 50% used industrially, a supply imbalance, little world inventory, declining mine supply due to severe capital spending cutbacks etc.
5) the ratio between gold and silver should move decisively in Silvers favour over the coming years.
6)Indias war on cash and indirectly on gold focuses attention on the merits of PM's. I am surprised that this illegal theft has not received more public condemnation.
7)Take a 1-3 year view. Silver at the current price is the most undervalued commodity/asset.
8) I am sure that EH, with 54% is losing NO sleep over current price volatility.

[richkid71] 21/12/2016 09:34

GS888 you have been predicting throughout 2016 400p-700p, now that goal has changed to 2017! It's very convenient (for you) moving goals but not particular helpful. NO ONE knows what is going to happen in 2017, you can read as many articles, conspiracies, chart data as much as you like. My advice - people need to be sensible. Let's hope 2017 starts like 2016 for PM's.

[goldenshare888] 21/12/2016 09:16

Good level headed post Top, I agree.

I feel we are at or very near MAX PESSIMISM levels on PM's!

NICE FLAG - If it plays out and I feel it just might in Jan - Whoop - Whoop!!

I still target 400p - 700p here in 2017.

:))

[goldenshare888] 21/12/2016 08:07

LOL

I would liquidate a house and put into this at 45p Charles!

:)))

[charles clore] 21/12/2016 07:51

Well I have done a few calculations myself and this could retest 45p

[muffster] 21/12/2016 07:47

Be sensible. Interest rate rises may not send share into recovery. Financials may be due for more upside

[dt1010] 21/12/2016 07:39

Lets hope it gets there SG then we can load up

150p is definitely on the cards, and probably less.

Any lower would be lovely.

Let them trash PMs and the sector, more to be made on the rebound.

Lovely jubly.

Significant power dry.

[pixi] 21/12/2016 06:26

Hec,I'm out too.

[saturdaygirl] 21/12/2016 02:33

Maxi

H&S target 1.31


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[maximoney1] 21/12/2016 01:11

Not saying this is a definate buy at 183p, but the 50% correction falls nicely on the bullish flag pattern and stochs are in a nice place....as they say DYOR...just something to keep in mind....imo.

If the flag pattern was to play out, the initial pattern target would be 471p :-)

[onedayrodders] 20/12/2016 22:26

While Wall Street shills and the financial media is busy seducing the public with its incessant “Dow 20,000” rally cry, corporate insiders are busy unloading their shares hand-over-fist. Every company (other than mining stocks) I’ve analyzed over the last month has been characterized by extremely heavy insider selling. The parabolic rise in the dollar is annihilating corporate revenues and profitability. Follow the money here because insiders are broadcasting this fact loudly.

China is dumping Treasuries and corporate executives are dumping stocks. Total U.S. debt outstanding hits new highs daily. Once again “smart money” is unloading its paper “assets” on an unsuspecting public. The delinquency and default rates in mortgage, auto and credit card debt is beginning to spike up, according to the latest reports made available and not disseminated through the mainstream media.

[onedayrodders] 20/12/2016 22:09

Thats funny DT .. you were convincing your other "friends" on the HGM thread just a few hours ago that $750 looks likely for gold and indicated even worse to come ....

DT101020 Dec '16 - 19:14 - 7943 of 7944 0 0
at this rate even lower, $750 ish?

the push lower will accelerate if they raise fed rates again

END

guilty as charged m'lord ... take him down

;o)

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 21:54

Top, to keep it short, I think short term we will get to $1100 but then I personally and I might be wrong, think gold and silver and the miners will rally when US earnings fail to impress in Jan due to the strength of the dollar. I spent a good hour trying to convince my friend of this. We at least had a laugh about it. But no one really knows.

But I'm gearing up for a rally in Jan.

[topicel] 20/12/2016 21:38

DT! Hecht says upside pressure on interest rates make 2017 unlikely to repeat 2016.

That was exactly what was thought last year. Nothing has changed. The dollar, if anything, is stronger which makes any US growth marginally difficult, if not impossible.

His arguments are full of holes. The fall from Septmeber 2011 of 45% came about almost immediately after that year's debt ceiling spat was resolved. So again he is saying the opposite to what is approaching, the March 2017 debt ceiling problem.

Why would gold and silver be under pressure as that approaches. The shoal is moving short term and under careful guidance from the crafty banksters and like JPM they are stacking the silver and gold coins up as we post!

Forget anything but the simplistic answers. Dollar strong is bad. Interest rate rises make dollar stronger. Infrastructure and manufacturing growth needs a fiscal boost so, more QE or a devaluation with linkages to gold at the new levels to accommodate all those like China who might wish to chuck a few missiles about when it happens.

They have too many dollars not to agree, as Shelton suggests, if the States does this unilaterally. As Robert Shaw used to say, "capiche"?

Topicel

[topicel] 20/12/2016 21:27

Rather aggressive DT. "Read this and learn something Top" is not gonna win people round mom ami...

Anyway, to humour you I read it. At the end he says:

"An environment of rapidly rising rates would launch the dollar and when it comes to gold and silver, the shine will further dull on the metals."

So nope, I've not learnt nothing and clearly neither have you. Rates can't rise or else the dollar does. Trump can't work with either. A strong dollar negates exports and cripples his recovery plans. Rising interest rates stymy his recovery plan even before he tackles debt ceiling opposition and other political delays because his whole premise, as a businessman political, is to build the growth based on private investment using low interest rates and other endure ends to build the infrastructure and kickstart manufacturing.

Solve those without resorting to biased commentaries written elsewhere and then we can discuss it further. It remains basic simple economic truths. The only other alternative would be QE4 to derail the dollar and if so bring it on for PMs will be back to 2011 levels.

Oh, and they were at those levels mainly, aside from a bout of QE2 & 3, because of that self-same debt ceiling trouble Obama kept having. You know, that 20 trillion debt. It must be resolved again, so we are all sick of hearing about it, by March 2017 or, if they use emergency powers September.

Oh, your link also whites on about:

"However, I believe the incoming Administration is in an enviable position to deliver on their promises over the next two years with both the House and Senate dominated by Republicans. Therefore, I expect economic growth to surprise on the upside and that is bad news for gold and silver but good news for the U.S. economy."

Well like I said he can't get growth without reigning in the dollar's march that is the banksters last gift as they scurry off. It is impossible to deliver economic growth with a strong dollar. He also has not got the control with Tea Party debt reductionists waiting in the wings so he can't easily do QE4 which I don't think he want to anyway.

All is very far from being bad news for gold and silver. Please tell me you can think independently on this...?

Topicel

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 21:11

Interesting counter argument to being bullish for an imminent rally in early 2017 here and a very similar analysis to my prop trader friend.

Investment demand holds the key and it is not there right now

The fall in open interest in both gold and silver market is a sign that investment and speculative longs have closed positions and moved on to other markets. Moreover, the action in ETF and ETN products in these precious metals has also dried up with the price declines.

Central banks around the world added over 550 tons of gold to reserves in 2015. In 2016, it is likely that they bought another 400+ tons. A concentration of buying came from two nations, Russia and China. As the ruble recovers and the Russian economy improves it is likely that the Russian central bank will be less likely to add to reserves, particularly if sanctions ease under the new Trump administration. When it comes to China, they are likely to continue to add to reserves but the additions could come from domestic mine production.

My first boss in the precious metals business told me that gold and silver rally only when there are more buyers than sellers in the market. When he made that statement he was very serious. I thought it was a truism, a matter of common sense. However, after watching these markets for over three and one-half decades, it is the ultimate truth. Gold and silver need buyers to move higher, investment demand determines the path of least resistance for the price each year. Unless the buyers return to the market, these knives are likely to continue falling.

Right now, gold and silver are looking awful, just like they did last December before they took off on fantastic rallies through the first seven months of 2016. However, in 2017 the upside pressure on interest rates and the dollar are likely to make a repeat performance highly unlikely. I remain short gold and silver with trailing stops at levels that will take me out of positions at a profit. My sales the day after Election Day are looking good and I see no reason to cover those risk positions at this time. The trend has been my friend and although the action in the market is a case of shades of December 2015, the bear case looks a lot stronger as we head into 2017.

The monthly gold chart shows that the price is now in a downtrend and open interest has returned to the pre-2016 rally level. Lower open interest is a sign that investment demand for gold has declined. Investor interest in the market has fallen out of the mainstream. Furthermore, the bearish key reversal on the monthly pictorial in November could mean we are in for more than a few months of bear market action in gold. The last time we saw this ominous technical pattern, gold fell from September 2011 through December 2015. There is some minor support for the yellow metal at $1115 but the critical level is at the 2015 lows of $1046. Below there, gold will likely make lower highs and lower lows and will once again fall into triple-digit territory. Gold fell by 45.5% after September 2011 and a similar fall from the July highs would put the precious metal at $730 per ounce.

The monthly silver chart is also now in a downtrend. Silver has moved lower for three straight months and open interest is back down to the pre-2016 rally level. Silver is likely to follow gold. February COMEX gold futures closed last Friday at the $1137 level, $250 or 18% off the July highs. March silver futures closed the week at $16.14, almost $5 or 23.5% off its July highs. If gold keeps falling, silver could get downright ugly. In 2008, silver was below $10 per ounce and when it comes to gold's little brother, there are never any rules.

Both gold and silver are in desperate need of buying and unless they can hold critical technical levels above the 2015 lows, there is little chance that any significant investment demand will materialize.

- seeking alpha, Andrew Hecht

[topicel] 20/12/2016 21:08

Hect, your post suggesting that Trump will force other countries to raise rates keeps overlooking the simple economic facts I've set out.

They can't raise rates. It will cripple the recovery he plans. No good building up production and making things again if no-one can afford to buy them. And everywhere else is just as broke. Do you really think the BoE, BoJ or ECB can afford rate rises?

If the US is to lead then they must devalue and reset the dollar at a competitive level that suits the Yanks. Shelton said it. We can do it unlilaterally and the rest will fall into line as we have the reserve currency. The sweetener is the gold link.

It gives the Chinese a knock but they've been devaluing all along anyway. They'll be glad it finally allows all their dollars to then have stability further on.

And PM interests are happiest. And the banksters simply change sides, as they've always done and are presently doing...

Topicel

[dt1010] 20/12/2016 21:07

DT101020 Dec '16 - 19:34 - 9204 of 9223 1 0 Edit
Friend of mine in the City (prop trader) said:

"they will fake the US recovery

rates will continue on up in 17 and 18

that is her betting..

until gold is at $750 and silver $10....!

it might take a couple of years to get to those values though, she said. Meanwhile the US stock market will continue to boom as will the dollar, and though 2017 will be very volatile the same trends in place now will continue.

She's very successful and quite well known in what she does. Certainly not to be ignored. I disagreed with her on pricing. But it did perk my ears up i have to admit.

A bit worrying too.

:(