Hill & Smith Share Discussion Threads

[barniebear] 01/5/2009 12:12

Thanks Fast.

I better revise my strategy & But More £3.00 Would give my biggest profit EVER i have been trading on stocks since 1986!!

[fast investor] 01/5/2009 12:01

Brokers certainly putting their faith in the stock, from Digital Look this morning....

What The Brokers Say

Strong Buy 2
Buy 1
Neutral 0
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0

Total 3

[fast investor] 01/5/2009 11:59

Hi Barnie B,

you ask where I see the share price going from here well two answers to that.

First of all technically speaking mid term (3 to 6 month) I see the share price going up to resistance at 340p on the chart and beyond when resistance is broken.

Secondly from a fundies point of view analys forward P/E forecasts (based on earnings per share) are for a concensus of just under 6 and I reckon the stock should be trading on at least a double of that ie, P/E of 12...... and thats conservative.

That would give us a share price of circa 440p and I honestly believe that can be achieved before xmas this coming year.

Hope that helps if you want to discuss further please leave a message.

cheers Fast.

[barniebear] 30/4/2009 07:28

oniabsta.

Sound advice & along the lines i am thinking!! However it never hurts to bank a profit. If things go as i expect (when did they ever)i will sell half of my holdings & move to more "RACIER" stocks.

[oniabsta] 29/4/2009 20:47

I last bought this in 2003 and sold for what i thought was a really good profit only to see it rise and rise and....
This is a really strong and well run company with good long term prospects, it is highly regarded.
My advice for what it is worth is to hold for the long term and take the increasing divi's. That is what i intend to do having been given a second chance to get in at an unbelievable price!

[fast investor] 29/4/2009 15:27

Fundies a forward P/E of just under 6.....

Hill & Smith Holdings PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arbuthnot Securities
27-04-09 BUY 39.00 33.13 10.70 44.00 37.38
11.60

Arden Partners
27-04-09 BUY 41.00 34.60 11.00 43.50 36.90 12.00

Evolution Securities Ltd
08-04-09 BUY 41.00 34.90 11.00 44.00 37.80 12.00

Eden Group
03-04-09 BUY

Fairfax IS
13-03-09 None 40.90 34.50 10.30 43.70 36.90 10.80

2009 2010
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 40.97 34.68 10.90 43.91 37.07 11.86

1 Month Change 0.02 0.13 0.24 0.31 0.17 0.45
3 Month Change -2.03 -1.65 -0.19 -2.09 -1.72 -0.14


GROWTH
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

Norm. EPS 15.66% 11.88% 6.89%
DPS 20.83% 25.29% 8.81%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

EBITDA £59.00m £58.80m £61.25m

EBIT £46.20m £45.10m £49.60m

Dividend Yield 4.31% 5.40% 5.87%

Dividend Cover 3.56x 3.18x 3.13x

PER 6.52x 5.82x 5.45x

PEG 0.42f 0.49f 0.79f

Net Asset Value PS -4.76p 176.66p 201.82p

DYOR.

[fast investor] 29/4/2009 15:01

Corker of a chart now that we are through 220p resistance. Just look at that gap up......

[barniebear] 29/4/2009 08:27

See header the appointment of new director old Earnest & Young hand sure looks like a verry good move for HILS. IMO

[barniebear] 17/4/2009 13:29

SO Standard Life has a 5% stahe in hills

Henderson has a 5.750% stake in hills

Looking GOOD & IN PROFIT!!

[barniebear] 14/4/2009 16:54

Tipped as a STRONG BUY!!

[barniebear] 24/3/2009 19:17

A small move in the right way for a change!!

[barniebear] 18/3/2009 08:25

So the M/D has bought a few more hils on 13th march!! Only 2000 though @£1.47!!

[barniebear] 11/3/2009 07:45

Dancing Piranaha.

I only "DO" what i understand in the market IE either Buy or Sell!! I cannot get my head around shorting (somthing to do with cdfs i suppose)However a little bird told me the c/o was making loads money so i piled in.However the link to the current LOUSY share price is the increase in debt.
If i go to the AGM (HQ not far from where i live) i shall attempth to quizz the MD on the debt & what they are going to do about it!!

It sure looks like i am in for the LOOOOOOOOOOONG term!!

[dancing piranha] 10/3/2009 16:47

As I suspected, too early to turn bull on any shares yet IMO!

barnie, how well would you have been doing here if you had shorted, instead of going long when you did?? Just look at the above chart......

[barniebear] 10/3/2009 14:55

Well the market has given its verdict!! S/P DOWN Hmmm

[gutteris] 10/3/2009 14:04

As I understand it a big chunk of the debt was borrowed in euros and dollars so with the decline in sterling the amount of sterling debt has gone up. In fact I think all the increase in debt year on year is down to exchange rate movements. This isn't a problem if you've got revenues in euros and dollars as well which clearly H&S have

[lendmeafiver] 10/3/2009 12:29

Agree ansc, some real positives but my concern is the debt, I thought that they had more to prepay during 2008 than the £17.9m in the cash flow (ie £38.5 in note 11), can anyone help me understand 2008 and the position going forward?

[barniebear] 10/3/2009 12:15

ansc. Just suppose the chairman (in these c/crunch days)said i will borrow like crazy & double the size of the c/o on DEBT!! The shares would have tanked!!

[ansc] 10/3/2009 08:26

Impressive results other than the increase in debt but, in view of the chairman's cautious outlook comment, I've decided to stay on the side-lines for the time being.

[phillis] 10/3/2009 08:02

a nice firm hold

[barniebear] 10/3/2009 07:57

Stonking results EXCEPT for one item BORROWINGS is way up!!

[barniebear] 26/2/2009 19:49

Patience, and I'm sure you'll be ok

Ive got the patience of Jobe!! I was once stuck in PRU for years after share price sank when the M/D cut the divi after saying he would not!! But i stuck it out & made a tidy PROFIT!!My info tells me they are making Loads of DOUGH & & if you check out uk-wire you will see that most of the directors bought around christmas time @ app £1.90sp!!

[dancing piranha] 26/2/2009 19:30

Patience, and I'm sure you'll be ok!