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[superg1] 26/6/2017 08:24

Family

I've posted re the DJ play and what Conoco did not what HNR claim. I did post about that at the time of the news but gave up trying to Arn PIs about the shower of S that it is.

BTW I warned the party interest in the Helium asset to do some serious DD and gave them the names of people on the ground to talk to. They couldn't discuss it with me but the end result was they pulled out so imo they listened and did their DD.

[superg1] 26/6/2017 08:19

So based on that info is the news reported at the time do you think the HNR news was a fair refection of the Conoco activity in the area.

EG
The farm-in acreage is bordered by ConocoPhillips leases that have been delineated by producing horizontal wells ranking among the most productive in the Denver Julesburg Basin. The presence of nearby production provides important data for analysing and projecting the productivity of the wells planned in the farm-in acreage.

Along with

Conoco has drilled numerous productive wells in its leases north of the farm-in acreage, including wells drilled within the township of the farm-in agreement as well as adjacent townships. The majority of Conoco's nearby horizontal wells with optimized completion techniques produced between 50,000 to 100,000 barrels of oil in their first six months of production.


The fact is the vast majority of the 20 wells have very poor production. In fact only 2 of the 20 wells seem to hit the rates as suggested in the news.

But then they say enhanced completions which may be the 3 that they took over 40 frac stages.

Either way I doubt that's how many read it re the majority of the Conoco wells were poor.

What HNR did was pick the 1.5 mile to 2 mile lateral wells with up to 49 frackers stages and used those. I suspect such wells with up to 270,000 barrels of water used are very expensive to do.

Burlington hit some similar wells but both companies stopped drilling them in 2015. The only conclusion I can come to is that there were bigger fish to fry and they were not viable at the oil price at the time which dropped to $60 pb. The HNR news was when it was about $40 per barrel.

Delay after delay and subject to getting the funding. Who would back HNR when the Conoco data is free for all to view. If you trusted the HNR news and didn't check the data then I can see why some may have thought it to be viable.

Then HNR used the term numerous productive wells. 9 of the 20 in 2016 did about 3 to 18 barrels per day each. 5 of them did 25 to 40 barrels per day each.

So the top one of those did about $2000 per day worth of oil using $50 per barrel.

The top well Conoco have in the county is currently doing about 130 barrels per day.

So if they are to do such wells 8000 down and the same horizontal with up to 50 frac stages I suspect they would be $5 mill to $10 mill per well. 6 wells intended with gloom in the oil market on over-supply.

[money4me] 25/6/2017 22:15

doesn't look like very good economics to spend over £100M to possibly only make a few million

[superg1] 25/6/2017 21:01

I just checked 6 weeks they did just before the larger wells and they are not much smaller.

EG They range from 32 fracs with 140k barrels of water used to 40 frats and 200k water used.

The ones prior to that were 20 fracs with 60k to 100k plus barrels of water used.

The 11 with about 20 fracs produced about 65000 barrels combined for the year 2016.

The 6 35-40 frac wells did about 96000 barrels combined for the year.

The 3 bigger wells which HNR used in news did about 165,000 barrels combined last year.

20 wells of multi-frac stages for about 326,000 barrels over the year of 2016. The gives an average of 16,300 barrels per week for the year.

Going by the rate this year it will be about 260,000 barrels for the year from the 20 wells without adding a decline.

At a guess going by some data my estimate would be about $80m to $100m costs to drill those wells.

[superg1] 25/6/2017 20:28

On another point. I checked Arapahoe county for 2017 all wells.

There are 149 wells recorded.

Of those just 15 have produced over 5000 barrels (2017 only) in total up to the end of April.

For their news HNR have used 3 of the top 6 wells to give numbers on. The other top ones belong to Burlington resources.

The last well drilled was producing by Feb 2015, 28 months ago and for that one again it was a large lateral well with 49 stages of fracking.

Treatment summary: Frac 49 stages w/ 11,915,857 lbs total proppant including 926,494 lbs 100 Mesh + 10,989,363 lbs in 277,449 bbls total base fluid.

They saw similar declines to that of Conoco all listed in the area of 4S 65W.

The Conoco wells were 5S 65W.

At the time the wells were completed oil had dropped to about $60 per barrel and it seems neither Conoco or Burlington saw fit to continue with those type of extended lateral completions at the time or since.

In the case of Conoco they got nothing like the top results for 17 other wells.

So it seems quite clear to me HNR did some cherry picking for the news about what they were going to do in the area.

So if anyone is brave enough to lend them money (they'll need a lot of it) then good luck to them.

[superg1] 25/6/2017 19:54

I just checked the Conoco decent wells to see how much water they used and Frac stages.

EG State Massive (a clue in the name) was the biggest.

Frac 49 stages in 10,698,380 lbs total proppant including 9,676,760 lbs 40/70 White + 1,021,620 100 Mesh in 263,762 bbls total base fluids.

So for the 3 state wells HNR use Conoco used about 750,000 barrels of water and about 32 million lbs of Frac sand.

Elsewhere I see they suggested the average for the Niobara in the area was $4 mill per well. This well however were 16000-18000 feet total per well with between about 40 and 49 fracs per well. That is considerably more than the others they did and it would fit with the extended lateral comment by HNR.

At a guess I'd say it would be $15 mill to $20 mill to do those 3.

[superg1] 25/6/2017 12:05

Hmm just had a quick look at the Colorado wells and deal with Renegade which it seems has seen a delay on top of a another delay.

As I recall they used Conoco wells as an example and of the 20 or so Conoco did only 3 hit the rates they put in that news which are the extended lateral wells. They ignored the majority poor performers in the news as I recall.

Anyway picking on one of those top wells (state Harvard) now time has moved on. I will look in detail later.

2015 total oil 126,000 barrels.
2016 total 58,000
2017 to April 15,000.

So 2017 should see about 45,000 barrels or 123 barrels per day.

Those top 3 wells are on about that amount. Just checked as they did 21 in Arapahoe the rest of them drop considerably on production with many around the 1500 mark so far (to April).

[superg1] 25/6/2017 09:26

G1G

re

G1g4lo22 Jun '17 - 12:43 - 9025 of 9034 1 0
superg1

I think you are missing things in the Helios project.

It is a natural gas resource HNR are looking for and have a CPR report with an NPV10 of $341m for the gas resource only which excludes both the Helium and the additional acreage purchased since.

If the gas resource is financially viable then they will utilise the Helium to make the project even more profitable and may co-mingle the Eagle & Muddy formation also.



No I'm not missing things in the Helium project. I believe IOF previously had the acreage and a lot of what was in a presentation was about IOF acreage re what is is the ground including helium.

So while researching that I had plenty of comms and contact with a guy called Bo Sears who is on the ground in the area and Mr Helium of the US. Note he is active with Helium north of Montana in Saskatchewan.

Further engagement was had with the guy at Brainstorm energy where a Helium play was found.

The county HNR mentioned in the original report had one gas well as I recall. It's been a highly active wildcat area for decades hence when fracking was born as oil companies flocked to the Bakken in North Dakota (next door) due to the old data known about tight oil plays.

All HNR have been doing is making big of plays that are worthless, that's my opinion.

I recall checking the Colorado play and the 100,000 barrels over a 6 months period. All data is available via the highly detailed Colorado oil and gas website. I recall checking through the data on that news and found they had simply picked the top wells which were outnumbered by very poor wells and steep decline curves.

I'll double check and come back.

But as said before there are things some don't know.

IMO this is nothing but a smash and grab con by use of the AIM. Hot news and topics, no name to stop news as main listed.

SO NO I don't think I'm missing anything on the Helios project, in fact it's probably the other way around, everyone else except me is missing the point. It's a highly expensive area to get into that's why you need vast gas assets and good Helium yields to make helium viable.

Don't ask me ask Bo, he can point anyone interested to many plays far better than what HNR have yet many don't exploit those either.

On top of that gas plays are ignored due to the surge in gas in the US which saw the price crash.

[family values] 23/6/2017 15:42

Cash was down to 1.8 million at the end of March!
They were spending at a rate of a million a month
How are they keeping the lights on?
I personally think this is now worthless.

It will be almost impossible to raise funds.

Who would lend this shower, tens of millions of dollars?

It has become farcical.

At least, because they don't have any assets of value, it stops RP selling off the silver to some loan shark.

[timw3] 23/6/2017 14:40

o/t UKOG massive OIL hit!!!!

More news next week by the looks of it. Weekend press will be all over this,

Politcally stable, funded, oil seeping out, Whats not to like.

Can see 3-4p easy next week imo

[family values] 23/6/2017 14:40

Collapse is accelerating now.
PI's are complaining they can't get online bids.
People are dumping bigger volumes below bid on NT trades.

[nobullplease] 23/6/2017 11:30

so what happened to Zeledyne, apart from bad luck with timing in relation to the global recession, did the business fold?

[family values] 23/6/2017 10:27

Another whopper on his cv is Zeledyne.
Again well worth the effort in finding out how that one fared.

[family values] 23/6/2017 09:42

Mr Price boasts in his CV about his appointment to the Minerals Management Service, please have a good read about what was going on there, and how it turned out.

[family values] 23/6/2017 09:38

He was a 'special advisor'.

They were drilling in Poland.
Anyone found a connection between the polish assets and his other company?

[deccer1] 23/6/2017 09:08

I think Price was a Director of San Leon Energy. What a dog awful mess that turned out to be. No surprise to see this going down.

[deccer1] 23/6/2017 09:06

Sub 10p coming.

[simonsaid1] 22/6/2017 13:30

Just catching up... superg1, what made you think helium was the primary resource being mined here?

This is like EMH, who are mining lithium in the Czech republic, but will use tin from the same mine to improve overall project economics (it's a former tin mine anyway and modern extraction technology is better).

As with many mining projects, this is a 'while you're down there' kind of deal, and viability can't be assessed from looking at any one product from the mining operation.

[g1g4lo] 22/6/2017 12:43

superg1

I think you are missing things in the Helios project.

It is a natural gas resource HNR are looking for and have a CPR report with an NPV10 of $341m for the gas resource only which excludes both the Helium and the additional acreage purchased since.

If the gas resource is financially viable then they will utilise the Helium to make the project even more profitable and may co-mingle the Eagle & Muddy formation also.

[superg1] 22/6/2017 12:14

If I can find the energy I may well go through the old stuff which was news misrepresenting the truth by some way.

This was con from start but no one would listen. Ohhhh untrue the company that was looking at the helium asset but pulled out did listen it seems.

[superg1] 22/6/2017 11:41

bewarepaul

The problem on these threads is blind private investors failing to take heed of genuine posters hoping to warn investors about things they know about the company.

I researched Colorado due to to Nighthawk. I researched Montana and Helium back to front years before HNR appeared.

If there was viable helium Bo Sears would have been all over it and I did have comms with him back then. Those original leases were held by others and they said good luck with anything there as its difficult to dispose of brine due to tight shale plays to dispose into.

The cut off point for Helium is 0.3% to make it viable but generally it's an available revenue source on the back of monster gas plays. The gas play the lead and then through size the 0.3 becomes viable but not desirable.

I could go on all day. Mendell exited Iofina I now plenty about him and his history and for his presence alone you should all be in buyer beware mode.