Herald Investment Share Discussion Threads

[apple53] 15/11/2021 16:44

btw still missing are UK listed names like Symphony and I could include my other on-going interests like India Capital Growth and VOF. And TFG.

In Europe I have Wendel and Arcona, both with a lot more upside.

[apple53] 15/11/2021 16:42

Understood.
I'll wait a day or two and see if someone kicks things off (let us know on this thread and ideally all the relevant chats).
Bad news is that I'm getting really similar upside to real-time NAV for 8 trusts, ie around 30%. JPEL a bit higher than the others but harder to trade and massive spread. NASCIT pretty decent and we should get NAV any day. Oakley and Caledonia are bottom (23-25% upside). Excluded from the 8 are and IPO (40% to my guesstimate of 170p) and Herald (11%).
Hopefully we'll get some differential performance and more switching opportunities over time.

[speedsgh] 15/11/2021 16:09

Shouldn;t be a problem. This INTENTION TO FLOAT thread for example doesn't have a ticker...

[octaviab] 15/11/2021 15:39

Actually, unless I'm missing something, it looks like it might be quite easy. There seems to be an option in the header for "start a thread" then it's just a matter of giving the chat an appropriate title. There is a box to fill in with the ticker, but I haven't tried it, so I wonder if it's possible to start a thread without it being linked to one specific stock...?

[octaviab] 15/11/2021 15:35

I am pretty new to using ADVFN, so I am more in the category of someone still finding their way around rather than knowing how (or where) to set up such a chat. But if you do discover some unloved stock that nobody seems to want to talk about, and hijack their bulletin board for these purposes, then I'm in!

[apple53] 15/11/2021 15:06

Hi Octavia,
If anyone knows how to set up something like that I would happily post info. I'm doing a comparative spreadsheet with real-time NAV estimates (plus recent disclosures, prices etc, ideally with 5 an 10 year records), though no idea how pasting such info would work. I could at least pass on conclusions.
Otherwise we could use a sleepy existing one, if the participants didn't mind.
When decided we could post on all the relevant threads and ask the keener participants to follow it.

[octaviab] 15/11/2021 13:06

Thank you so much for that post, apple53. I would love it if you did decide to start a thread comparing these types of trusts. I currently hold PIN/HVPE/OCI and NASCIT among others, and would very much enjoy participating in discussions comparing their various merits (or lack of…).

[apple53] 15/11/2021 11:21

I don't think it's irrelevant Spangle. I think one of the weaknesses of individual share chats is the lack of comparative comments. I can bounce from Pantheon to HVPE to Oakley to NASCIT etc. and find committed lovers (you know what I mean). On individual stock, as opposed to trust, chats there can at least be some naysayers, though sadly these situations often deteriorate.

I would propose a joint share chat for these types of trusts, but of course it's hard to draw the perimeter, and people who aren't THAT interested will get their inboxes swamped with notifications.

I can roughly simplify analysis of these trusts (from pretty much fully unlisted holdings to fully listed) to: discount, catalyst for shrinkage, and underlying growth. The last should be most important, especially in 'normal' markets, though I tend to get a bit too focused on the discount (TFG anyone?). There are people that know IPO and its closer comparatives much better than me (see the thread) but it seems to me IPO's real NAV is quite probably 170p plus. Unlisted trusts tend to have very conservatives NAVs in rising markets, because of a) time-lag (valuations end March etc.), b) conservative accountants, c) valuing at last funding round. IPO is more in the public eye due to Oxford Nanopore, and is the best way (in my view) to hold ONT, is buying back its shares and generally seems to be run well.

I have to say that Herald's long term record is very strong, especially since 2016, and I think it has a better five year record than all my other investment trusts. I tend to think that some of this kind of stellar outperformance will be luck, and we may be seeing a bit of normalisation over the last few months in terms of limited outperformance of appropriate benchmarks. Also it's got quite large which I think can be a drag given there is a limit to how many smallish brilliant ideas the team can have. Finally, sector rotation may be relevant.

To conclude I see Herald as a modestly sized core holding, rising to oversized when the discount goes above 15% (especially given willingness to buy back shares). IPO would be a smaller core holding at a 5% discount (I was almost out entirely around 150p), but is an over-sized opportunity at present (helped by buybacks), particularly given a lot of the NAV lag has come through in my other trusts, such that discounts are no longer so understated, and tend to be in the 15-20% range (vs 30-40% not that long ago).

[spangle93] 11/11/2021 12:05

@Apple53
Sorry for partly O/T, but what do you see in IPO vs HRI. Is it discount - if so how does bamboo calculate a rolling NAV? Is it because HRI has had a good run, whereas IPO is off its highs? ...

I'm very happy with HRI's management's performance, but I'm always interested to hear views on other companies. Please PM me if you don't think it's relevant to this bulletin board

[apple53] 11/11/2021 11:40

chillpill I have also been trading around my longer term position (primarily spread bet when the spread shrinks to 50-60bp). I even sold 15-20% of my longer term holding at 25.3 in order to fund a purchase of more IPO! To be fair this was a chunk bought at 23.53 3 weeks before so I don't think I can call it longer term, but the opportunity in IPO just looked that much bigger with a 25% discount vs 10%.

I will look to buy more Herald again in low 24s assuming NAV still around 28. I think my IPO holding now larger than Herald for the first time ever.

[deadly] 04/11/2021 17:21

5% rise today, any news??

[chillpill] 28/10/2021 08:46

Bought some more at a 15% discount the other day.

Historically that has been a good time to buy.

The only smaller cap funds I own are NAS and HRI- management teams so much smarter than the rest.

[marktime1231] 12/10/2021 12:52

My instinct to rinse some HRI a month ago was correct but I was not brave enough this time, the underlying momentum was so strong. Now does look like a good time to be adding or buying back in, the discount wide again as you say. Small and medium UK sector taking a bath because ... well who knows ... but there are signs of things turning up again. A good trading update from GBG on 21 Oct to watch out for.

[davebowler] 12/10/2021 11:53

Oct 8 Net Asset Value - including current
year income 2641.02p

[chillpill] 12/10/2021 10:01

Back to a 15% discount so in the buy zone

[marktime1231] 06/9/2021 12:43

That feels right, it is what kind of happened in April and in July. The discount is still 10% so HRI shares are hardly expensive, and the NAV is still rising, it would be brave to try and time an out-in rinse to bank some gains. Taking a cue from GBG maybe. Tempting though.

[arja] 05/9/2021 13:51

yes , 2 big days is unusual for an investment trust and , even though a NOR situation, it should pullback now on profit taking .

[marktime1231] 03/9/2021 14:11

HRI still rocketing while the NAV climbs and closing the discount from around 15% to 10% in a few days. What is driving this, it can't be one or two individual stocks like GBG or FUTR can it because the portfolio is pretty diverse and thinly spread.

Bloomin' marvellous whatever the reason, keep going, whistling and smiling

[spangle93] 01/9/2021 15:37

Go HRI

+60p on the day
Record high price touching £25
Record NAV
Recent director buys

[mike the mechanic] 01/9/2021 13:22

I agree, big fan of Herald. Surely the discount should diminish based on the performance

[quepassa] 01/9/2021 12:31

Herald today hits a new ALL TIME HIGH at 2470p.

Twenty-five pounds on the cards.

With a market cap of c. £1.65billion combined with a track-record second-to-none in the sector, the discount to NAV at 2800p per share leaves much room for rightful compression.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[robsy2] 20/7/2021 11:00

More progress. I love this trust. I see they are buying back shares again.

[deadly] 20/7/2021 10:08

results today:

"The Company's net assets per share grew by 14.0% during the first half of 2021..." but the share price fell by 3%. No good reason for the increaaed discount.

This comes on top of the 37.0% NAV rise in 2020....

[deadly] 06/7/2021 13:07

Quite a jump these last few days +10%. ??