Henderson European Share Discussion Threads

[jtcod] 14/5/2006 22:26

The figures must be wrong. It's obviously a very tight market but not that tight imo. It needs an audit. Could be that there is a 'duplicate', where they have shown individual holding but also shown it in a trust vehicle, which is quite common.

I notice now that the sneaky mm's eventually back-posted my 2nd purchase on the correct day and time:

10:24--(3/05)--80p--63432

Together with my original purchase: 09:19--(24/04)--65.5p--303500

I hold 366,932 shares

[goonertone] 14/5/2006 10:12

BB

I'm just to trusting!!

Bletherer

Based on our previous discussions on this matter I'm not sure there is any confidence in that 78% figure. Saying that based on BB's comment I'm not sure I have huge confidence in the current figure, although the date of 28/4/06 is very soon after the last RNS and these figures are included.

GT

[bent banana] 14/5/2006 09:48

% holdings on their web page add up to 93.29% not 96.3% not that it makes much difference.

[bletherer] 14/5/2006 09:47

GT - I don't think your theory fits the facts as the previous total of major holdings, as listed in late Jan, before Gyllenhammar started buying, was 78%; since then Gyllenhammar has added 18.72% and we now have a total of 96.3%. So very clearly the vast majority of his shares have NOT come from other major holders. This is what is so puzzling - it's as if the MMs magicked them out of thin air! At any rate I certainly agree with you that this makes them well worth holding on to for the time being. With a benign trading statement just past and a very friendly looking chart I can see nothing in the next few months that's likely to lead to a reversal, and even very modest amounts of buying could create a strong upward move.

[goonertone] 14/5/2006 08:06

Bletherer

He may have been accumulating for months before one of the bigger holders agreed to sell him a chunk thus catapulting him to his original 6.1%. Once it was known that there was a big buyer about it might have allowed some of the other big holders like the Chase nominees pension fund(name escapes me) to think that there was an exit for their large holding that hadn't been there before thus lots of behind the scenes transfers rather than open market buying.

All supposition and guesswork. All I know is that at a guess the posters on this messageboard other than JTC probaly make up 50% at least of the free float. Therefore if everbody has a don't sell philosophy then small amounts of buying could work miracles the reverse is also true but can't see an argument for selling at the moment now that I know that any pullbacks are more than likely just one PI selling up for whatever reason.

GT

[bletherer] 14/5/2006 07:48

Thanks, GT. So the mystery is finally solved - in part. But I am still trying to get my head round why in this case Gyllenhammar's buying did not ramp up the share price far more than it has so far as the other big holders held on. Are we to understand then that MMs were sitting on millions of these things waiting in hope for someone to come along and take them off their hands? I'm also intrigued as to what happens in a situation like this if Gyllenhammar says to his broker that he wants another 500,000 shares, which would seem quite possible given the appetite he's shown for them so far. Does the price then not spike up dramatically? There may be a simple answer to all this but I've not held shares in a company with such a miniscule free float before so this is rather a new situation for me.

[goonertone] 14/5/2006 07:12

I have just seen that on a share I own, HET, that the free float of shares, ie those not held by people owning over 3% or more each is, down to 3.7% of which another poster I believe owns 2% which leaves 1.7% of the company available for trading.

This has in HET's case led to a prolonged downturn in the shares and now a rally which despite a pullback on Thurs/Fri has been on a very low volume of shares.

I started this thread with an idea to get a list of those companies which are not only volatile due to the market they trade on, the majority would appear to be on AIM, but that this is multiplied due to the tightly held nature of their shares.

MRM and SRTS are two more thqat spring to mind though not to the same level.

These stocks have the ability to move rapidly and I would be interested to see if anyone has any other stocks with the same characteristsics as I would like to set up a watchlist of stocks of this type.

[goonertone] 14/5/2006 06:58

HET have updated their website, finally and rebranded it as choices UK.

Not particularily exciting but check out this page



Now if JTC isn't in this list, and he states 2%, which I currently have no reason not to believe then the current free float is 306,000 shares!!!!!!!!

I'll admit to 40,000 so thats then down to 266,000 shares that goes someway to understanding the large fluctuations on miniscule amounts of shares.

I'm struggling to to believe that I own 6% of the free float and 13% if you take out JTC.

GT

PS note the date on the list is after the last RNS holdings announcement

[scumdog] 12/5/2006 12:13

Realistically, can't see 4.5p final dividend - I'd be happy with 3p but 2.5p is OK.

[edmundshaw] 12/5/2006 10:34

Added a smidgeon today on the dip.

Probably won't get above 4% of my portfolio as it's unfamiliar territory, and there are the issues of pricing pressure from price deflation/competition. Other than that, though, it looks a steal; definitely Benjamin Graham territory!

4.5p would be a nice dividend! I'm hoping for that but expecting at least 2.5p. After all, they have said they would be cash flow positive and then put out a positive trading statement...

[martinc] 12/5/2006 09:02

I seem to find myself on several of your threads, JTCod, though usually slightly late in the day as it always takes me about a month to get time to digest my quarterly CD REFS, by which time HET has gone up from 65p to 90p. Any other tips? AMU is I think the largest initial share purchase I've made, and I still wonder whether to get more. HET seems harder to buy so I don't want to go over the top. I like the look of TG21 (TGP). I still have some Marchpole.. think you sold? I'd be interested to know how long you wait before selling stocks. My failing is timing my sales - I usually hold too long.

[edmundshaw] 12/5/2006 08:46

At the interims: "In the light of the Interim trading results the Directors are not recommending the payment of an Interim Dividend but, subject to trading conditions and continuing positive progress, intend to propose the payment of a final dividend for the year"

Not clear what the divi will be, but looks likely now. It is not likely to be a token dividend either,(which would send the wrong signal), though hard to know what exactly it might be.

[horneblower] 11/5/2006 20:03

The big effect on tomorrow's prices...and for the next few weeks... is the DOW's fight to get through its old closing high of over 5 years ago. (11,577.74, I think)

Disregard the intra-day highs. It's the close which counts. My reading of the chart is that it won't manage it for a while but will skirt around it for several weeks.

It's a daunting task and it may not make it for a year or two...if ever. Naturally, I deeply hope that it pushes on through, but I can't say the chart is optimistic.

It will be a down day for most thing tomorrow.

[horneblower] 11/5/2006 18:40

fordtin,

Since you asked JT, I assume you are looking for an answer based on fundamentals.

From a strictly chart perspective I would be suspicious of BPG's ability to continue to rise, whereas I am quite happy to keep my HET shares on the chart assumption that its recovery still has more to go.

My target for HET is 125p and probably 150p whereas I think BPG will have difficulty getting back past 425p.

Just my opinion.

[scumdog] 11/5/2006 09:48

Treeshake?

[jtcod] 10/5/2006 23:11

You're welcome Zoo. Just the beginning I think.

[goonertone] 10/5/2006 14:29

well that large sell seems to have had a major impact on online quotes

You can now get 150 @ 94 and sell 15000 @ 93.2

[zooshare] 10/5/2006 11:20

bought 10k at 94p for core holding and 5k at 92p (earlier) CFD! neither is showing on trade....strangest MM behaviour with this share! good tip JCT...thanks

[martinc] 10/5/2006 10:35

Had no trouble buying yesterday though....

[goonertone] 10/5/2006 10:13

Online limits are the worst I have seen( or best from a bullish viewpoint)

100 to buy @94 and 15000 to sell @ 93.5

GT