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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henderson European Trust Plc | HET | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 188.00 | 16:14:26 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 188.00 | 187.00 | 188.00 | 188.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| UNKNOWN |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 28/5/2006 22:00 by goonertone JTAMU & HET sorry for the delay. Tough one. Some parts of each have synergies but the high street part of choices stands out like a sore thumb. Would I want the unpredictable nature of the high street stores to impinge on the steady solid distribution business of AMU. I supppose it depends on your view of the benefits of the benefits from the the cross selling of the locals business of HET with the distribution business of AMU. They would appear from first glance to be fairly seperate client bases but with similar size profiles. You could possibly put a small sales area in each high street store as long as you didn't try to make it into a CD emporium. More of a rent a romantic film buy a cd of lovesongs for afterwards type of thing. If nothing else was done either HET sells mosaic to AMU or AMU sells maximum ent to HET as I think each of them on their own are to marginal to the main business to make it worthwile. Could well be a case of sum of the parts etc. I wouldn't want to see it until we know where the high street side of HET is going. If that has stabilised then their might just be some mileage in the idea. GT |
Posted at 22/5/2006 23:22 by jtcod SporticusThe company hasn't changed in the last week. Only the markets have changed. HET is still way undervalued imo and I think it has held up pretty well over the last week compared to the oil sector for instance. My experience in the past has been that stocks like HET (when bought at very low P/E's) have fallen less than their sector, on the drops and bounced higher when bargain hunter's have returned. Let's hope that trend continues. JT |
Posted at 14/5/2006 08:12 by goonertone I have just seen that on a share I own, HET, that the free float of shares, ie those not held by people owning over 3% or more each is, down to 3.7% of which another poster I believe owns 2% which leaves 1.7% of the company available for trading.This has in HET's case led to a prolonged downturn in the shares and now a rally which despite a pullback on Thurs/Fri has been on a very low volume of shares. I started this thread with an idea to get a list of those companies which are not only volatile due to the market they trade on, the majority would appear to be on AIM, but that this is multiplied due to the tightly held nature of their shares. MRM and SRTS are two more thqat spring to mind though not to the same level. These stocks have the ability to move rapidly and I would be interested to see if anyone has any other stocks with the same characteristsics as I would like to set up a watchlist of stocks of this type. |
Posted at 12/5/2006 10:02 by martinc I seem to find myself on several of your threads, JTCod, though usually slightly late in the day as it always takes me about a month to get time to digest my quarterly CD REFS, by which time HET has gone up from 65p to 90p. Any other tips? AMU is I think the largest initial share purchase I've made, and I still wonder whether to get more. HET seems harder to buy so I don't want to go over the top. I like the look of TG21 (TGP). I still have some Marchpole.. think you sold? I'd be interested to know how long you wait before selling stocks. My failing is timing my sales - I usually hold too long. |
Posted at 12/5/2006 09:46 by edmundshaw At the interims: "In the light of the Interim trading results the Directors are not recommending the payment of an Interim Dividend but, subject to trading conditions and continuing positive progress, intend to propose the payment of a final dividend for the year"Not clear what the divi will be, but looks likely now. It is not likely to be a token dividend either,(which would send the wrong signal), though hard to know what exactly it might be. |
Posted at 24/4/2006 21:17 by goonertone As I stated earlier I was about to set up a new HET thread when JTC set this one up. Just out of interest I have posted the opening summary that I was going to use. Its a bit longwinded so please feel free to skip itHET - is it beauty or the beast? Home Entertainment Corp was originally the owner of the Choices chain of video shops which has now evolved into a business that still owns the choices stores, numbering 220 but also a fulfilment business offering stock management and distribution services to businesses both small and large. The Beauty is the fulfilment business The Beast is the retail side Market Cap is currently £12 mill HET shocked the market in November 05 with a profits warning stating that a loss of £3.3 million before tax would be incurred for the first half of 06 due to poor high st trading, stock write offs and exceptional costs relating to the setting up of a choices tv channel on sky. HET now has the following divisions: ChoicesUK local provides a fulfilment services to small convenience stores acroos UK and ROI ChoicesUK direct incorporates website sales and fulfilment services to bigger companies ChoicesUK TV selling directly to the public via sky TV ChoicesUK stores operates 200+ stores renting videos/dvds and selling dvd's, computer games/hardware, mobile phones Mosaic own rights to a small number of dvd titles The question is why invest now in a loss making company who's shares have been in decline since 2002. Bull Points Fulfilment Business is profitable, secure and growing Rental is a declining part of the product mix Andromeda Ent brought from receivers to bolster fulfilment division Trading statement and interims both stated retail now profitable Cashflow positive Expansion of fulfilment business via purchase of goodwill & assets of Andromeda Ent Cost cutting exercise to be completed ahead of schedule to the tune of £2mill per annum. Imminent uptake of blu-ray/HDdvd Bear points Retail is weak currently Internet rentals eroding high st business DVD Piracy Advent of downloadable films There are other bull and bear points but these are the main ones and one that could be either(Peter Gyllenhammer) Below is a posting I made a while back that sums up most of my thinking on HET: Is HET worth £1.50? On current results no but then I'm in this at the moment on a momentum/stock squeeze play but I was originally looking at getting in on a recovery play. The question is recovery from what? A terminal decline in turnover but managing to streamline ops to revive profits or a one off rebranding and refocusing of the business to return to growth and profitability? 18 million shares at 1.50 would give a market cap of £27 mill. Say PE of 10 then profits before tax(ignore available losses etc) need to be £3.9 mill approx. Is this achievable? Leaving out the download and blu-ray arguments( ie any loss from current formats can be replaced by new formats) then it is nigh on impossible for 2006 but if the finals show a return to profit in the second half then 2007 is a distinct possibility that this can be achieved. Lets look at the profit centres based on info in the interims. Mosaic Lets just stick with what weve got £100k profit for year. Choicesuk local £860k on 8000 outlets with ROI growing rapidly. Roughly equates to £20k per annum per outlet. There were 250 extra outlets in 28 weeks to 17th Dec. Say 250 more for second half and average of 250 for 2007(ie 500 for year spread evenly) therefore 8500 @ £20k = £1,700,000. Choicesuk Direct £670k in 28 weeks to 17th Dec. A period which included the internet business adversely affected by delay in launch. Once up and running growth to continue and 3rd party agreements to expand on. This appears to be the current business driver both through the internet and more importantly the managing and fulfilment of third party businesses. These additional third party arrangements should give income from fees etc without the costs of investing in stock . Lets say slight growth in second half and then 15% growth in 2007 as internet site and third party agreements kick in. £1,300,000 + 15% = £1,500,000 Choicesuk TV Set up cost below budget and written off as exceptional in 1st Half of 2006. Agreements in place to run third party channels thus earning fees to set against running costs and thus reducing risks of incurring losses. Expect to make profit in 2007. Finger in the air on this but say £500k Choices UK Stores Now for the problematical one. £1.5 mill loss in 1st half but now restored to modest profitability. Rebranding would now appear to be near the end and the improvement in like for like performance towards the end of the half was greatest in the restyled stores. Once the remaining 10 stores that have been earmarked for closure have gone there is £500k of savings per annum. However as has been stated mild winter, a hot dry summer and the world cup could adversely effect the stores more than the other parts therefore I will err on the side of caution and say break even for 2007(though I think with luck with good mgmt and mix of products £100k per store is possible or £3 mill) Therfore we have £100k + £1,700k + £1,500k + £500k + £0 = £3,800k The above figures do not take account of the £1 million in overhead savings for 2007 stated in the interims. These appear to be for savings in admin and ending of leases and not inclusive of savings from redundancies in the warehouse. 20 staff at £20k plus ni and admin would be another £500k but as there is no proof that these aren't included in the £1 mill I will ignore them Finally cashflow is stated to be positive in H2 and in 2007 therefore interest due should fall back to previous levels. To be prudent include a further write off of obsolete stock say £500k Therefore we have operating profit of £3.8 + £1.0 = £4.8 mill less exceptionals of £500k and interest of £250k = profit before tax of £4.05 mill. So in conclusion with a lot of what ifs and maybes yes it can be worth £1.50 per share and if they can turn a profit from the high st outlets (personally I think my break even is far to low based on them already appearing to have turned them back to profitability) then £2.00 plus is achievable. This is the bull argument, rose tinted glasses etc but the question was can it be worth this and the answer from the most recently available evidence would appear to be yes All comments, derision etc welcomed. GT |
Posted at 11/2/2006 23:26 by goonertone She -raThis is the last post on this matter as I have managed to get myself dragged into an argument with someone that I would not normally bother with. If you feel that is a victory so be it. I will leave others to bite if necessary. I have answered all your questions and arguments and got no real answers other than on music downloads. As the original argument was on dvd's then I consider that you had no argument on the main questions. As for downloads then yes they include them in the charts and that is whether you have to pay, they are discounted or free. Hence the arctic monkeys getting to No 1. I-Pods are selling at a phenomenal rate and are full of peoples CD collections and swapped/file shared files. Due to the size of the files it is one evenings work to download an i-pod/MP5 player full of music from Kazaa or the like. So yes I agree downloading is the future but the only genre that will make money out of it is the only genre that makes billions out of the internet already which is porn. Until the music/movie industry can make it socially unacceptable to buy music/films from the high street or acceptable internat sites then the only people who can charge normal or premium rates for content is porn. If you cna give me a company that I can invest in that makes legitimate money from music downloads or from movie downloads then I'll invest in them as well. Until then I will go with the 3- 5 years that HET has got to trade with before downloads or the next big thing has reached a decent level of penetration. Next time I want to invest my money I will go and check with the teenagers and 30 somethings whether I am doing the right thing or not. However whether they will understand the question is another thing entirely. GT |
Posted at 11/2/2006 11:06 by pjetr The discussion about the long term potential of HET is valid, however who knows who will be right and who will be wrong? And does it really matter to decide whether the current share price represents value or not?Some thoughts on the future 1. Yes, in 10 years time (2016) we can be pretty sure that a lot of people will be simply downloading their movies and games (through PC, TV, PS3 or 4,... connected to sky or google etc).But it won't happen overnight: there are many many technical and commercial hurdles. 2. Note that 'filmed entertainment' sales have Never In History been so high as today (in volume that is). Everybody's buying series on DVD like Lost, The Office etc etc (even Knight Rider is available). New technology presents threats but also opportunities. 3. Music 'sells' (and is shared) well online, but what about e-books? People are talking about them for many years already, but 100% of the population is still buying paper books. My point is that it's not because one category works online, that all categories will work online... Anyway, I think it's fair to say that selling movies and games in a disc-format will not go on forever, but will AT LEAST continue for 3-5 years. Is there value in HET? For the first time, HET provided operational results per division in their 1st HY results. 1st Half 2005-2006(000) ChoicesUK Local 860 ChoicesUK Stores -1540 ChoicesUK Direct 670 Mosaic 55 ChoicesUK TV -830 The results were clear about the 2nd half: Stores are back to profitability (modest), and the TV losses will soon turn into profits. 2nd half can get these BACK-TO-NORMAL results I'd say (I assume no profit growth for Local, Direct & Mosaic, modest profitability at Stores & TV): ChoicesUK Local 860 (same) ChoicesUK Stores 300 (modest profit) ChoicesUK Direct 670 (same) Mosaic 55 (same) ChoicesUK TV 100 (first time profit?) = almost 2 million of EBIT profit On a full year basis this would 4 million of EBIT, which gives 3 million NET (assuming 25% tax rate, no interest payments). Current market cap is 12 million ---->> P/E of 4. What HET needs to do 1) Prove that it can effectively make 2 million EBIT in 2HY. HET needs to show that they can get their business back to normal. 2) Investments in stores, stock etc must be kept as low as possible. Profits + Depreciation should be almost equal to Free Cash Flow. And they need to pay out the FCF as dividends. No use re-investing a lot of profits in a business that will eventually disappear. My conclusion HET must prove it can make decent money the coming 3-5 years, and show its commitment to returning all generated cash back to shareholders. If they do, the value of 1 share is at least 80-100p, imho! (FCF per share: 15 p, during 5 years, + terminal value generated by sale of leaseholds etc). |
Posted at 14/12/2005 09:11 by siwel100 Almost overlooked is the current £20 million of console games being sold by HET, an area where they are already seeing increased sales. Next year has the full release of the next generation XBox360 and PS3 games consoles. Fatter margins and good hardware demand will feed through for HET, not to mention increased game rentals as new console owners test out the new games.Although like most retailers they are concerned by dvd piracy, the new copy protected DVD formats are coming out next year, HD DVD and Blue-Ray. The consortium behind the HD DVD format has already flagged it is eager for Chinese production to push the price of new machines down and the Blue-Ray consortium includes Sony and their new PS3 machine which will be a Blue-Ray DVD machine, 200million of which will be sold in the coming years. Of itself it may all be a little obscure in relation to HET but with all the Studios signed up to release DVD's on the new formats, piracy will become increasingly a thing of the past. Much mentioned is the "home delivery" option much advertised by numerous suppliers this year. Already there has been a tightening in the offer by many of the new suppliers with restrictions to a certain number of rentals per month.This increase in the cost of the offer together with the normal postal delay for reciept, should curb the penetration of this "concept" Further into the future is video on demand. This is more difficult to establish as a real threat to HET's DVD rental business, not least because the time frames are unknown and there will be a considerable technical investment by the user to actually use any potential service. Whtever develops it will have to compete with the almost total penetration of DVD players and low rental costs to customers. No one may be safe in a fast changing technical world, but HET has proved to be nimble and although this has been a very poor year for them including the transition costs to full DVD with a substantial write down on VHS stock, the company is adapting well and at current prices, the share price shows a substantial discount to worth not least because of the 11% dividend on offer and the commitment by the company to a steadily increasing dividend. |
Posted at 13/12/2005 14:59 by siwel100 Almost overlooked is the current £20 million of console games being sold by HET, an area where they are already seeing increased sales. Next year has the full release of the next generation XBox360 and PS3 games consoles. Fatter margins and good hardware demand will feed through for HET, not to mention increased game rentals as new console owners test out the new games.Although like most retailers they are concerned by dvd piracy, the new copy protected DVD formats are coming out next year, HD DVD and Blue-Ray. The consortium behind the HD DVD format has already flagged it is eager for Chinese production to push the price of new machines down and the Blue-Ray consortium includes Sony and their new PS3 machine which will be a Blue-Ray DVD machine, 200million of which will be sold in the coming years. Of itself it may all be a little obscure in relation to HET but with all the Studios signed up to release DVD's on the new formats, piracy will become increasingly a thing of the past. Much mentioned is the "home delivery" option much advertised by numerous suppliers this year. Already there has been a tightening in the offer by many of the new suppliers with restrictions to a certain number of rentals per month.This increase in the cost of the offer together with the normal postal delay for reciept, should curb the penetration of this "concept" Further into the future is video on demand. This is more difficult to establish as a real threat to HET's DVD rental business, not least because the time frames are unknown and there will be a considerable technical investment by the user to actually use any potential service. Whtever develops it will have to compete with the almost total penetration of DVD players and low rental costs to customers. No one may be safe in a fast changing technical world, but HET has proved to be nimble and although this has been a very poor year for them including the transition costs to full DVD with a substantial write down on VHS stock, the company is adapting well and at current prices, the share price shows a substantial discount to worth not least because of the 11% dividend on offer and the commitment by the company to a steadily increasing dividend. |
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