Haynes Publishing Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 29/1/2020 11:15

All buys this am back up to 430. Hopefully NC is right; always good to see share price rise ahead of results.

[norbert colon] 24/1/2020 20:41

Half Year results next week. Trading update from Dec confirmed adj PBT was up 37% from same period last year. Very strong growth and hopefully the outlook will be equally good for the rest of the year. 24.4p EPS f/c for the FY but I would hope to see the high 20's.

[norbert colon] 15/1/2020 14:05

Results also due Thu 30th Jan which will show further operational progress, give an insight into the FY outlook and perhaps provide an update on that FSP.

[e43] 14/1/2020 22:55

Patience Wad C! I've been a holder here since 2002 .Realistically its going to take several months,the business is improving in the meantime, so all to the good.

[essentialinvestor] 14/1/2020 18:30

Completely missed this one, congrats folks.

[wad collector] 14/1/2020 18:27

Maybe the buyers are not queuing up.

[e43] 06/1/2020 14:00

Tyou N Colon, you're sleuthing as impressive as ever!looking forward to the intrims at end of month.

[norbert colon] 05/1/2020 11:38

It's worth reading this (albeit 3 yrs old) concerning the Takeover Code and the differences / dispensations that apply to a FSP as is the case at Haynes. An RNS would be issued if an offer was made made in any form. https://www.charlesrussellspeechlys.com/en/news-and-insights/insights/corporate/2016/takeover-code-formal-sale-processes/

[e43] 05/1/2020 04:15

N Colon or Other, whats your understanding of the timing of any RNS announcement regarding potential bidders i.e would it take a formal offer to trigger an announcement, or would they have to release an RNS stating they're in negotiations that may lead to a formal offer?

[wad collector] 10/12/2019 14:34

NeilC, why do you think we are 1. Gentle and 2.Men ?
But some interesting thoughts .

[e43] 10/12/2019 12:08

Neil,sounds like you've sold your shareholding

[neilc5] 07/12/2019 02:28

Gents,

The Group's been packaging the company for sale for the last several years. To be clear, the "man behind the curtain" at Haynes is Mr. Eddie Bell who's been critical and instrumental in propping up the lackluster legacy executive management team, including J Haynes as CEO, and Board since the departure of their longtime CEO, Mr. Eric Oakley, in FYE 2016. Absent Mr. Bell's guidance and decision making, this company would have been a rudderless ship lacking professional management and crashing against the rocks.

The consumer business has been in a major state of decline dating back to FYE 2004 propped up by price increases, and as of late, cutting legacy employment costs and operating costs in the US. The US business, which was the driver of dividends and cashflow is now generating revenue and unit volumes not seen since FYE 1989, yes 1989, and is now down to a HC of 11. The Group balance sheet is burdened with millions of capitalized intangibles from capitalized editorial production costs, and their ill fated, poorly timed and implemented consumer digital program, which failed miserably, has left millions more of unamortized development costs in the balance sheet as well.

The UK manual and HBD book division business has not been profitable for over a decade. The UK business is burdened with a massive unfunded pension liability - the dollars have been flowing to shareholders instead of the pension fund of employees. Asset sales from the US restructuring totaling about $10M have been transferred to the UK to prop up the UK business and management team. The funds paid off the UK's maxed out credit line, and funded the Oats and E3 acquisitions. The UK management team has all but abandoned the largest market in the world, the US.

Oats is barely profitable, and the UK numbers are being propped up by the profits and cashflow of E3, and continued US cost cutting. E3 business model can be easily duplicated by Solera, who was forced to sell E3 to Haynes, and by the previous owners who sold to Solera (owners of Autodata).

The real value in the business is in HaynesPro. A likly buyer is SnapOn (Eurpoean and Australian markets). The legacy consumer business will be off-loaded to someone such as Motor in the US, and HBD business sold off. YouTube and growth in online automotive networks, blogs, and retailers killed the consumer business, and the consumer database has little value in the professional markets. The US's largest retailers have dropped, or are in the process of dropping the Haynes line. Once Autozone joins the parade, US cashflow will go negative and there will be much in the way of write-offs of intangibles and inventory.

Gentlemen, this will come out in the due diligence of any prospective buyer.

[wad collector] 06/12/2019 08:42

I do love a single line update with no excuses.(Reread it ; 2 lines!) £5 does not seem very far away now.

[norbert colon] 06/12/2019 08:03

FY20 forecasts are for 39% increase in adj PBT yet today's update confirms 37% ahead by H1 so we are on for some further big earnings upgrades. Fantastic news.

[arregius] 06/12/2019 07:21

Awesome trading update which accelerates the sale process.

[arregius] 27/11/2019 18:56

Stancroft Trust and miton joining Us definitely see value here still

[wad collector] 26/11/2019 17:25

Maybe but that was last week.

[wad collector] 26/11/2019 11:50

Bit of a plunge today , down 10% on no news I can see. Illiquidity?

[wad collector] 25/11/2019 08:54

That IC sell article suggested that an optimistic profit outlook was already priced in ; not incompatible with the earlier buy rec at 239p.

[arregius] 23/11/2019 13:38

I believe the same

[starpukka] 23/11/2019 13:35

It seems to me the odds are this will be sold at a premium. 600 is not unreasonable. Therefore, from here, I can't see any reason not to hold and accumulate.

[arregius] 22/11/2019 12:12

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/11/21/thanks-for-the-memory/Sell from IC which I dont share. Holding all shares of course

[norbert colon] 18/11/2019 14:15

IC maintain their buy 'tip'https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2019/11/15/haynes-up-for-sale/"Haynes' shares climbed by around 7 per cent on the morning of the announcement. They had already risen considerably since the group's full-year results to May were released in September, prompting broker upgrades. At 433p, we maintain our tip – pending updates on the sales process. Buy.Last IC View: Buy, 239p, 12 Sep 2019

[norbert colon] 15/11/2019 21:58

Some brief thoughts on valuation added here in the comments section:https://cube.investments/haynes-publishing-group-hyns-agm-report/