Haynes Publishing Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 28/9/2012 08:31

Well they seem to be having a torrid time at the moment. Looks like the re-branding of Vivid is long overdue.

[spob] 28/9/2012 07:56

Profit warning due to fifty shades of grey

Lol

[aleman] 30/8/2012 13:36

It does seem a curious reponse to disappointing results. I'm wondering if there is something more to it than just the recent numbers.

[wad collector] 30/8/2012 12:21

Dare I say it , the share price seems to be making a systematic recovery?
Not on much volume , but there seldom is much vol here.

[spob] 23/8/2012 11:13

Haynes rambles on about the economic crisis and this and that

but the truth is they are ignoring the reality

this business is in structural decline because of freely available information on the internet

[spob] 23/8/2012 11:11

redundant business model now i'm afraid


i get all my info for free on the internet and in much more depth than any haynes publication

i can also download the manufactures dealer software for free from the internet

also car specific forums provide much more in depth knowledge about real world problems / weak points, specific to certain models and how to fix them

you just cant beat the superior free information available on the internet now

i have a haynes manual for my car which i have no use for any more

if i change my car i have no need to purchase a haynes publication for it any more

[aleman] 23/8/2012 10:34

Cash holdings were flattered by a £1.9m fall in working capital (mostly falling receivables) with the gain wasted on buying back shares. What would shareholders say if working capital had been flat and the buy-back funded by halving cash holdings that will pay future dividends or be needed to invest in growth areas the company needs to find? Operating cashflow before working capital changes fell by a 1/3rd to £5m and is starting to make the market cap look generous. Buybacks in such circumstances are very questionable - especially when the board says retiring 1.24m shares is to improve liquidity. That just makes them sound stupid. The business is still shrinking and generating less cash with no clear turnaround in sight. Falling cash generation is beginning to raise questions about paying the dividend in years ahead and is starting to make the pension deficit look less manageable. Buying back shares in such circumstances is madness. The board needs to get a grip.

Sorry to sound so negative. I was hoping to buy back when the price was right but that price just fell further for me and I'm beginning to wonder if this business will ever stop shrinking. It's in a marketplace which is being overhauled by the internet and doesn't seem to be coping with it. Vivid was supposed to be riding to the rescue but there is little sign of it.

[spob] 23/8/2012 09:27

this is not really a true share buy back

shares held in treasury

right ?

[westcountryboy] 23/8/2012 09:25

Why would they cut the dividend? They have increased net cash from £0.2m to £4.78m in the four years since 2008, AND bought back £2.45m worth of shares this year. This is an impressive cashflow machine.

The pension liability is arguably a problem but it's under control: non-current liabilities have been pretty static since 2009 at £13-14m.

And the market cap (£28m) is less than asset value (£40m).

[wad collector] 23/8/2012 08:36

Finals;
- Group revenue down 9% at GBP29.8 million (2011: GBP32.7
million)

- Group operating profit of GBP5.1 million (2011: GBP7.7
million)

- Group profit before tax of GBP4.7 million (2011: GBP7.2
million)

- Basic earnings per share of 20.0 pence (2011: 30.5 pence
as restated (1) ) calculated on a weighted average number
of shares of 16.1 million (2011: 16.4 million) following
the buy back of 1.2 million shares to place in Treasury

- After share buy backs of GBP2.4 million, net funds of GBP4.8
million (2011: GBP5.4 million) reflecting another year
of strong cash generation

- Final dividend of 9.5 pence per share, giving a total dividend
of 15.7 pence per share (2011: 15.7 pence)

The statement includes the usual excuses and weasel words, including self-congratulations on the share buyback saving the dividend payments.(But not the fact that having paid £2 a share , they have lost the same amount in capital by todays prices)
Maintenance of dividend strains the payback ratio up to 75% ,which seems bizarre to me when it is now yielding 8.5%.Why not be honest and cut the dividend?
The pension deficit ;
As at 31 May 2012 the aggregate deficit on the two defined benefit schemes as reported in accordance with IAS 19 was GBP10.0 million (2011: GBP10.4 million) with the schemes total assets increasing by GBP1.9 million to GBP25.2 million (2011: GBP23.3 million) and total liabilities increasing by GBP1.5 million to GBP35.2 million (2011: GBP33.7 million).

By my reading , this means it is still £10m in debt.

Thought briefly about adding when I saw the yield , but decided not to put good money after bad.Maybe the share price will climb steadily from £1.85 , but I will take that risk.

[wad collector] 17/8/2012 10:31

There is a bit of an upward trend at last.Not much volume , but....

[wad collector] 17/5/2012 10:15

Belated posting of Q3;

Haynes Publishing Group PLC

18 April 2012

HAYNES PUBLISHING GROUP P.L.C. ("the Haynes Group")

Interim Management Statement (IMS)

The Haynes Group presents its third quarter IMS covering the 13 weeks to 29 February 2012 and to the date of publication of this Statement ("the period") in accordance with DTR 4.3.4.

Third quarter trading and business highlights

During the period the Group started on the development of the first 50 UK automotive repair manuals in an electronic format. Once completed, the new digital UK manuals will add to the top 50 selling US manuals launched shortly before our financial half year in November 2011 and will be followed by the top 50 selling Motorcycle titles.

Group revenue for the 13 week period to 29(th) February 2012 was 4% down on the prior year, reducing the shortfall for the financial year-to-date to 8%.

Revenue in North American & Australia, the Group's largest operating segment ended the third quarter, in local currency, 2% down on the prior period. This is an improvement on the 16% shortfall in first half of the year and sales in Australia, in particular, have continued to build on the positive performance in the first six months of the financial year with strong double digit growth. In the UK & Europe, revenue ended the quarter 8% down on the prior year. Sales of UK automotive repair manuals were affected by lower purchasing from the major UK retail chains and ended the 13 week period 24% down on the prior year. Elsewhere, revenue from the UK's non-automotive DIY titles once again performed well in difficult market conditions, ending the 13 week period 2% ahead of the prior year while in Europe, Vivid revenue in local currency for the third quarter was in-line with the prior year.

As we enter our fourth quarter, trading conditions for our core products on both sides of the Atlantic remain challenging but we will continue to work closely with our key customers to improve sales during this important trading period for the Group.

During the period the Company purchased 1,240,000 of its own ordinary 20p shares, funded through internal working capital, to place in Treasury. Apart from the buy-back of shares, there have been no other significant changes in the financial position of the Group since we reported our interim results for the six months ended 30 November 2011.

The Haynes Group will report the results of its 4(th) quarter trading and its preliminary results for the financial year ending 31 May 2012 on 23 August 2012.


Recent share price slide I guess just follows the market , but disappointing to see it languishing significantly below £2 again.

[wad collector] 24/2/2012 13:18

They sloped in there with that buyback - no indication in the results-presumably some Fund decided that it was a good enough price despite the company being flush enough to buy them.
I presume the Directors still hold the majority of the issued shares between them.
Or did one of them sell? Presumably an announcement will be made.

[topvest] 23/2/2012 19:58

Looks a good opportunistic purchase. Share buy backs do make sense if it's at a sensible price - Haynes are not lacking funds for their own growth plans, so I think they should take this opportunity to soak up some shares at a cheap price.

[aleman] 23/2/2012 12:24

Wow - nearly £1m of stock bought back.

I don't like share buy backs. I've been in too many companies where it has been wasted with hindsight. To be fair to HYNS, cash may currently yield a lot more buying back shares than it does in the bank but that smacks of not knowing where they can invest for a good return within the business, in which case a higher dividend would be better as shareholders will have a much better idea of what to do with it.

I'm still watching to see if the shares fall enough or results pick up enough to be worth reinvesting. It's not that HYNS aren't reasonable value. It's just that there are some high yield shares out there that look like growing and increasing the dividend. I'd like to see HYNS rejoin them.

I wonder who sold a block of 500k.

[pugugly] 06/2/2012 15:42

Topves & Aleman - Both very valid points - Agreed there are probably shares out there with potentailly higher growth and paying an equivalent or higher dividend. One I like and hold is SUS Current foward yield (refs) 6.55% but very illiquid, as is Haynes

[topvest] 06/2/2012 14:42

Their digital sales are quite significant already - disclosed in a note to the interims, so quite a bit of potential I think. Fundamentally, they need to start growing revenue, but I am still a fan of Haynes. Durable Competitive Advantage is something that they certainly do have, albeit the internet is a threat.

[aleman] 06/2/2012 13:04

The deficit is about the same as last year's operating cashflow so not that big but.... the problem is the weaker interim profits and cashflow and the threat of the internet to the traditional publishing business. The huge boom in kindle sales must be some kind of threat as could be the manufacturers selling their own technical information online. The company has yet to show significant progress in its transition to digital publishing as its traditional market shrinks. It needs to show how it can monetise its niche technical books and journals on the web and not be overtaken by new competition in this medium. I've was worried enough by the interims profit trend that I've sold out. The pension deficit does magnify the reducing profit problem,of course. THere are plenty of other high yield shares out there, some of which look to have respectable growth prospects. HYNS look a bit too risky for me now. I might reconsider them if they drop down to around 130-150p or if the final results show a better profit trend and/or more progress online

[topvest] 06/2/2012 12:55

Yes, but the company still generates very strong cash flow and has no other debt. They have a dominant position in a declining market, but also some growth opportunities to bring in an electronic manual, publishing and branded goods so think they are overall well placed. Had a look at the US electronic manuals the other week and they look good - something like $25 for a 12 month subscription and $30 for a lifetime subscription. Looks a good money spinner to me!

[pugugly] 06/2/2012 12:25

Surely one of the main worries here is the deficit on the pension scheme which is a very significant chunk of the current market value

The net deficit on the Group's two retirement benefit scheme's was reduced by GBP1.3 million during the period to GBP9.1 million (31 May 2011: GBP10.4 million). The Schemes' assets increased by 3% to GBP24.1 million (31 May 2011: GBP23.3 million) while the present value of the Schemes' liabilities reduced by 1% to GBP33.2 million (31 May 2011: GBP33.7 million).

Thoughts

[aleman] 26/1/2012 10:45

I follow US economics and can vouch for their story. Retailers generally have been destocking over the summer as the slowdown there brought on fears of more recession. Since then. demand has picked up sharply and retilers are now short of stock and manufacturers are having to play catch-up. Just how much this has been the reason for Haynes fall remains to be seen but the drop in July is bang in the middle of the quiet period. They ought to be saying they are seeing stronger sales by now, though.

[topvest] 26/1/2012 08:12

Yes, a bit disappointing but looks like its more of a US de-stocking issue than anything that we really need to be concerned about. Digital plans look like they are progressing very well. May be tempted to add a few more if we get significant weakness today.

[wad collector] 26/1/2012 08:09

Financial Highlights


- Revenue of GBP14.3m (2010: GBP15.7m)

- Operating profit of GBP1.9m (2010: GBP3.0m)

- Profit before tax of GBP1.8m (2010: GBP2.7m)

- Basic earnings per share of 7.5 pence (2010: 11.3 pence)

- Strong cash generation with net funds of GBP5.0m (2010: GBP3.8m)

- Interim dividend declared of 6.2 pence per share (2010: 6.2 pence)


So ...not exactly immpressive then.At least their head is still above water.

[wad collector] 13/10/2011 17:56

ZZZZZzzz wake me up when they are £4 again .

[topvest] 08/10/2011 16:49

Agreed - it's a good company with durable competitive advantage. No.1 in the market, but market is in slow decline. The future is to develop their brand as they have been doing and electronic manuals. Still very good value.