Harvest Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[soulsauce] 21/8/2016 15:40

Cheers CC.

[charles clore] 21/8/2016 15:37

Nice one Soul. This link takes you to a site showing the world's top 10 producers. Brazil sits roughly midway

[soulsauce] 21/8/2016 15:32

Brazilian Potash, Phosphate and Fertilizer Market


The fertilizer sector in Brazil is one of the fastest growing in the world. Over the last 15 years Brazil’s crop revenue has increased from US$23 billion to US$126 billion. Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of sugar, coffee and orange juice and the second largest exporter of soybeans. The country is currently the world’s fifth largest fertilizer consumer, and demand in Brazil is forecast to grow twice as fast as overall global demand until 2025. The country is one of the largest potash importers and the third largest potash consumer in the world, as well as the second largest world importer of phosphate.


Approximately 90% of the country’s potash demand is met through imports, with the remaining 10% produced by Vale’s Taquari-Vassouras Potash mine that is located adjacent to the Group’s Capela Potash Project (approximately 13 km away) and the Sergi Potash Project (approximately 40 km away). The Taquari-Vassouras mines has been in production since 1985 and currently has production capacity of 625,000 metric tonnes per year. Brazil also imports 50% of its phosphate consumption.

The Directors understand that the Taquari-Vassouras mine is expected to close from 2017 onwards leaving both the Group’s Sergi Potash Project and Capela Potash Project ideally positioned for a low capex development, if the Group is able to take advantage of the existing infrastructure at Taquari-Vassouras.

[glenkaz] 21/8/2016 15:19

Thanx again guys did post something but it's on the thread! Don't know why it does that ! Fizzy I'll have alook and thanks guys for your help!! £6k up last week for me ! I am up for challenge here! Which ever way it goes tommorow !🤒

[charles clore] 21/8/2016 15:12

fission - what could be simpler than HMI? This is what attracts me to it. They will get a contractor to dig up the rock, crush it all for $7.50 a ton. The farmer will pay $500 for a 10 ton truckload of fertiliser during the first 100,000 tons trial mining, then on to the full mining permit and rinse and repeat ad infinitum - and they start this year. Low cost high margin = more profit and a higher share price.

[charles clore] 21/8/2016 14:43

glen - 'he who hesitates is lost', meaning if you spend too much time deliberating over a decision the opportunity will pass you by. Firstly, you must be absolutely sure of your reasons for investing in this particular stock. You should be well researched on the company, its assets and liabilities and its directors. Are you trading it for a quick return or going for a long term investment? If you are thinking long term it won't matter too much if the price goes up and down as long as the general direction is up. You need to be sure of your expectations because playing the stock market involves a lot of psychology. If you are not relaxed in your mind it will cause you many sleepless nights.

[fission453] 21/8/2016 14:38

Here is the link...very interesting!

[fission453] 21/8/2016 14:36

Glen Whilst we are doing well here is another tip just for you....TLOU....this is on a verge of being big....far bigger than HMI!

[glenkaz] 21/8/2016 14:11

Janestone thanks for replying ! Got to admit it's gonna be a very interesting day tommorow ! Lots of large trades flying about at the mo! Which wAy will it go 🤔 Confused now! I only have £4 k in was gonna put £10k in first thing! Decisions decisions ! To think I had £8k at 5p and sold 4.5p 😱 Now bought in at 21p!!!! Derr! 🤕

[janestone] 21/8/2016 13:03

Yep, they can exercise their rights, but it doesn't mean that the shares will hit the market as they can exercise and hold.

Glen,

If I was them then I'd probably top-slice at some point, but my top-slice target is considerably higher than the current price (and I'd guess that they're privy to better information about the prospects than us, but would be working on similar assumptions of performance).

[charles clore] 21/8/2016 11:32

janestone is right. Several million warrants came 'into the money' during the week commencing 8th August:

15,862,000 @ 8.8 pence expiring 31 May 2017
951,720 @ 7.5 pence expiring 18 December 2020

The chart shows there was a slight pull back around the corresponding price range which may have been caused by short selling or profit taking. Considering that 62.3% of the Company's issued share capital is out of public hands and all of the warrants were options I would guess that only a small proportion of those shares arising from warrants exercised would be sold anyway.

When warrants are exercised the company publishes the information as an RNS so this will become clear IF they have exercised (they have until the expiry dates to do so).

[glenkaz] 21/8/2016 11:15

Janestone! I was just about to add if someone could post it over Lse ! But it's allready there! Your famous now! Ha ha! 😄

[glenkaz] 21/8/2016 10:59

Janestone very informative ! So if I was a warrant holder and seing momentum would I sell now 🤔 Or wait for say £! I know what I would do ! This could double bag before🤔 Thoughts anyone?

[janestone] 21/8/2016 10:43

You're all close.... but not quite right.

There are £1.2m of warrants outstanding at 8.8p, and they'll be taken at some point (but it will be positive as it will add £1.2m to hmi's coffers).

And so TW wasn't far off.

I think that what happened was that when the share price was over 10p Beaufort phoned some of the warrant holders and asked them if they wanted to sell their holdings and maybe some indicated that they did and so someone went short, anticipating that the share price would fall.

And then the warrant holders possibly read the news and thought that they'd hold on (or maybe the BOD phoned them to advise them to hold) hence a short squeeze (and I really hope that tanvier malik went short... but that's another story!!)

But even if the warrant holders took up their options tomorrow, it shouldn't affect the share price as they're not obliged to sell them into the market and they could take the new shares and hold on for £1 (and they'd be silly not to).

Call it a placing, it will happen, but it will be a blink and you'll miss it event, and if it does reduce the share price in any way then I'll be along to buy more.

Expect shares to be released at 8.8p, but don't expect it to make a difference to the share price and don't expect the warrant holders to sell them cheap.

[glenkaz] 21/8/2016 10:38

Any one brave enough to speculate share price tommorow 🤔

[saturn5] 21/8/2016 09:58

Check it out on vox

Brazil wants that lovely K&P fertilizer and
Harvest have found it with permission to remove.

That cant be bad
Must be excellent news for us small investors

[glenkaz] 21/8/2016 08:07

See on proactive investments that dividends could come real soon 🤑💰💵💶8178;💶ԁ81;💰💵;💵🤑 check it out! Think tommorow could go 🍌'S! 🙃

[glenkaz] 20/8/2016 20:37

Charles thanx m8! And good luck! I'm in for a punt ! Watched all week ! Fool I a m was! 🤒 ! Take this as high as you can ! 🤑

[sandbag] 20/8/2016 19:40

Charles,

It would be amazing if fundraising wasn't needed at some point. Whilst I'm a firm believer in "If it sounds too good to be true etc...." I think this company could be in the right place, right time etc and consequently I've taken a decent stake. I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[charles clore] 20/8/2016 18:58

sandbag - sorry if I didn't cover that point. I understand what you are saying but most new ventures bring up unforeseen costs imho. I am not saying fund raising will definitely be needed but it would not be a big surprise to me if it was. It's all down to the timing of getting the stuff out of the ground without any hitches and selling it. But they won't want to run out of cash before they get their first pay cheque.

glenkaz - well done on your scratch card win. Sometimes that is how it feels dealing in stocks and shares. HMI has been a great investment for me so far anyway!

[charles clore] 20/8/2016 18:47

OFF TOPIC brutus8 - I have to say that I don't know much about the fertiliser sector. I was tipped the wink about HMI last weekend and everything I know is the culmination of one week's research into 2 or 3 companies. My main interest is in precious metals and even in that area my knowledge is only borderline.

However, from my brief research I gather AFPO is a supplier and distributor of fertiliser with a jv interest in a company that has ongoing exploration activity. They use altruistic language in their reporting so maybe they are humanitarian but as you say that doesn't sit easily with the word profit! Their share price is quite peanut-like I agree. But some low market cap companies can give incredible returns - if you catch them at the right point on the curve. To be honest although these guys appear to have a credible infrastructure with a nice supply and distribution agreement they don't seem to have much luck bringing home the bacon. I haven't been able to find out whether they recovered the $US10m owed by a customer yet but when it was reported earlier this year the share price fell significantly. The business has changed direction from being an explorer and isn't really cutting it for me. It seems complex and has loose ends imho so I personally wouldn't buy into it - but please dyor.

[glenkaz] 20/8/2016 18:34

Well if they go £1 mil left it ain't much! With respect! I've been skint all my life and was an auxillary nurse for nhs! Luckily I won 1 mill on a scatch card! So now I know wiv house price etc it don't go far! I'm sure they will need some money unless they can sell ASAP! Also sure they would so love a placing at say £1+ not 8p ! Thoughts guys I am allready in At 21p and if you read my posts I was in at 5p

[sandbag] 20/8/2016 18:27

Charles,

If you listen to the Voxmarket interview (h2owater's post 388) you'll realise it's not really a mining start up but an open cast quarry start up. Excavating, transporting, crushing plant only I believe. It was also mentioned about the possibility of bringing in contractors to do this work so presumably they would have their own plant and save Harvest a large amount of capex.