Harland & Wolff Share Discussion Threads

[lopodop] 11/9/2023 11:08

The Board loves your loyalty.

[wiltowin] 11/9/2023 09:14

I'll take a chance like when I bought 100k ezj shares at 100p 20yr ago and sold on at 15x that. You continue deramping and I'll have my breakfast as I'm better things to do today bye bye.

[lopodop] 11/9/2023 07:59

Nonsense. The auditors are dubious and they are in the position to assess the facts.
Are you?

[wiltowin] 11/9/2023 07:47

Your obviously a glass half empty you'd be better with your money in a tracker. Fortune favours the brave.

[lopodop] 11/9/2023 07:32

‘In time’ - there may not be time - think!

[wiltowin] 10/9/2023 17:56

We'll see in time and perhaps you'll have to wipe the egg off your face?

[jaknife] 10/9/2023 17:12

I'm just a bear of little brain, but I can't for one second believe that HARL have the slightest chance of getting UKEF to guarantee a £200m loan.

1. Firstly, in all my time in investment banking (23 years) the DTI (DBT as they are now) were always crystal clear that their role was to support commercial transactions. There is nothing "commercial" about lending money to HARL, as HARL is an outright charity case.

HARL made a £31.5m loss in H1 and now has a balance sheet with an £80m black-hole at its centre. Its house broker now forecasts that they'll make a further loss of £14.5m in H2 (full-year loss of £46.0m) and a total loss in 2024 of £24m. So the house broker is telling you that the gaping black hole will have increased to £118.5m by the end of 2024.

No sane bank lends to a company that is technically insolvent to the tune of £80m now and is forecast to be even more insolvent 16 months from now. And on that basis UKEF will NOT get involved because they only support commercial transactions!

Take a read of their most recent annual report:

"A key principle of our pricing is to maintain a level playing field. We therefore operate within the OECD Arrangement (a framework for the orderly use of officially supported export credits), where it applies. This requires all ECAs to charge risk-based premiums sufficient to cover their long-term operating costs and credit losses. This mirrors the WTO Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, which classifies export credit guarantee programmes that do not cover their long-term operating costs and losses as “prohibited subsidies”."

From:
attachment_data/file/1086994/UK_Export_Finance_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2021_to_2022.pdf

[remove line break in above URL]

Have a read of the accounts and see that UKEF is a business that makes a profit - it has always been run as a commercial operation! And note that UKEF DO NOT make equity investments. Have a look at the balance sheet, there are none there!

Lending money to HARL is not a commercial proposition and hence UKEF will NOT lend to/guarantee a loan to HARL.


2. But there's a more fundamental reason why UKEF are NOT going to lend or guarantee a loan to HARL and the clue is pretty obvious as it's in their title - UK Export Finance!

HARL's big contract is with the UK Government. They are part of a consortium to deliver three state-of-the-art ships to the Royal Navy. That's the "UK" Royal Navy.

There is no "exporting" in this contract and it therefore naturally follows that there's no export that UKEF needs to get involved with. HARL has no material other contracts (export based or not) that might support such a loan.

Conclusion

Someone on HARL's board is going to great extremes to keep the dream alive but it's ten months since HARL claimed that they were in negotiations for a new loan:



when they specifically said (9 Nov 2022):

"Financial close is expected within four to six weeks. The Company will make further announcements at financial close"

43 weeks later and there's still nothing! Right there you have the evidence that points to either (a) an over-optimistic board that are inflating investor expectations beyond a reasonable level, or (b) an incompetent board that haven't got a clue. Neither is an investable proposition!

JakNife

[lopodop] 10/9/2023 07:35

Lots of ‘advanced stage’ descriptions are invalid - investors must keep alert!

[loglorry1] 09/9/2023 14:49

"Should the Company not be successful in raising these additional funds and continues to retain its current cost base, a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the group's ability to continue as a going concern".


Exactly and worse still yet again the £200m facility that they claim is at an advanced stage is yet again delayed. The company now has no cash, losses forecast, no funding and is reliant on a D4E to continue. On that basis equity is going to get rinsed probably at about 3p.

Oh and by the way this statement from the auditor is not boilerplate. There are many companies even ones on AIM that are not forced to write this.

[inaminute] 08/9/2023 12:29

The auditor comment is required and inevitable. They cannot take account of future contracts not yet signed

[mortal1ty] 08/9/2023 11:59

I'm CFA qualified. 10 years experience as an equity research analyst. I probably know how to read accounts more than most.

You take employee salaries out of gross profit and operating profit, depending on where the costs fall. The people working on delivering revenue from these contracts will come out of gross profit.

Sometimes you capitalise these costs in contract accounting. Your point about revenue isn't quite true. You recognise revenue as you deliver work, not when you are paid. They will be matching revenue to costs (roughly).

... As someone who bothers to read accounts... this paragraph would make me sell pretty much straight away. Management guff aside, the going concern statement is signed by the auditors. You can't bullsh8t this. The business is bankrupt without a large amount of capital injection.


"Should the Company not be successful in raising these additional funds and continues to retain its current cost base, a material uncertainty exists that may cast significant doubt on the group's ability to continue as a going concern".

[xenor] 08/9/2023 11:36

Seriously? Do you not understand a single thing about business? You don't take the employee salaries out of the profits... Those are considered costs that make up the rest of the contract figure. Profit is calculated after the costs of executing a contract.I'm not going to lie here, these results are below what I expected. But nothing fundamental has changed. The revenue will be booked in H2 instead of H1.The losses sound big because you have to spend money to make money. If you spend 20m on a contract in H1 to execute it but don't get paid for the work until H2 then the figures are out of sync.My suspicion is that the M55 payment delayed from 2022 hasn't come in H1. That was 20m. Given the announcement yesterday that we've reached the milestone half way point on that contract the money is likely there now.

[mortal1ty] 08/9/2023 11:21

I'm not one to tell you I told you so... nah I am really. I told everyone on this board this business was completely unviable (too much debt, will never make profit).

Some of my gems from last year:

1) Yay, lets compare a big number with a small number. Why don't you look at the gross profit of this contract... £240m. That's enough to fund 1600 workers for 5 years. Im sure management will hire 2000 though, just to make sure they keep the losses going.

2) Yes and what's the losses on that £65m-£75m? At least £15m I suspect. £70m sales, 15% gross margin -> £10.5m gross profit. Well they have £15m operating expenses in H1, so thats £30m for the FY.... so £20m losses at the EBIT level. More sales... more losses.

3) Come on then... someone explain to me where my numbers are wrong? You guys just see a big number and compare it to a small market-cap. This business made a £15m loss of £16m sales. Imagine wtf it could do with £100m sales lol.

Where is liyka123, firestorm911,iceagefarmer now... fled with losses I suspect.

[volsung] 08/9/2023 10:31

Basket case financing here
Bargepole stock

[weaverbeever] 08/9/2023 08:48

Losses due to investment in infrastructure prior to revenue starting. You are not going to have revenue before you have the infrastructure and trained people in placeIt costs a lot as this is big boys toysBut when the revenue starts flowing it will be substantial 100 million then 200 million and so on.

[ozzywalker] 08/9/2023 08:33

Knew I should've sold last week..ffs bean

[skinny] 08/9/2023 08:30

Whilst the Company is currently reviewing the details of the High Court judgement, the judgement has created the opportunity to evaluate several potential strategic options for the asset including:

-- Trade sale of the project;
-- Government funding (either in full or on a matched basis) through the National Infrastructure Bank or similar entity via a commercial mechanism such as a Contract for difference (CfD) or Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model; and

-- Traditional farm-out model with the Company retaining a minority stake in the project.

The Company will fully assess its options in respect of the Islandmagee Project to ensure any future decision on this project is in the best interest of shareholders.

[owenski] 08/9/2023 08:20

Horrendous finances. No surprises though.

[seagreen] 08/9/2023 08:20

The future looking very bright ..exciting times ahead...read the report not the bashers comments On target for 100m revenue...full steam ahead

[terminator101] 08/9/2023 08:00

Revenue might be up, but their losses are up even more. Plus the fss contract is only a total revenue of £7-800 million, but the rampers screamed at anyone who dared to suggest otherwise. Debt at £88 million so breach that by the end of the year.

[blackhorse23] 08/9/2023 07:35

Debt up significantly

[linesal2] 07/9/2023 17:50

15p was the resistance level before, now it is the support level. (without news)

[ramlamb] 07/9/2023 16:40

Xenor - If the share price is governed by 'forward looking news' expect the worst, two days declining share price can't be wrong.

[xenor] 07/9/2023 16:25

Buys and sells are pretty even today, there was a 100k buy earlier to match that 100k sell you're fapping over.As I say, news will dictate the direction of travel.