Hansard Global Share Discussion Threads

[bisiboy] 23/1/2011 18:00

the one thing that concerns me is the products that they sell.
many of their offerings are worse than the old endowment policies here.

many of their clients are locked into investments sometimes with penalties of upwards of 20% i doubt if they were selling these in the uk they would be allowed.

the shares look cheap but i wonder if there is a future at their current margins if overseas centres tighten up their regulations

[the shuffle man] 20/1/2011 10:11

Dipped a toe in today. Excellent yield and hopefully good figures to come next week.

[loganair] 19/1/2011 16:17

Hansard for me is not a short term investment where one is concerned and frets about the underlying short term fluctuations in it's share price.

My new investment in Hansard is a long term hold for an increasing dividend from a high yielding quality company. The icing on my cake will be a bounce back in the share price over the long-term.

Which means even if at the end of the month the share price has risen to 180p I've got to have the courage and discipline to sit on my hands and do nothing except to enjoy spending my dividend.

[ukinvestor220] 19/1/2011 15:59

nellie - where do you get the broker reports from to paste on my-share ??

[envirovision] 19/1/2011 13:53

nellie when i click on that it never tells be anything just blank, can you post it here?

[nellie1973] 19/1/2011 13:50

Broker upgrade today

[chrisb1103] 19/1/2011 11:26

High volume for HSD and a tick up. Seller may be nearly done?

[chrisb1103] 19/1/2011 10:51

Thanks for the comments both - good points made. I can see the clear motivation re the divi there then.

On dates i have noted here from their website that there is a new business update on 27/01 then 1/2 yr results with announcement of interim divi on 24/02

[loganair] 19/1/2011 10:29

I understand that the Interim Ex-dividend date is 2nd March 2011 with a payment date of 31st March 2011.

Half-Year results expected 27th January 2011.

[envirovision] 19/1/2011 10:10

..and the other thing about his dividend based arrangement is that he is is motivated to ensure the dividends are well covered on a cash flow basis, so its a comfort to know there things are managed in a way to sustain the excellent dividend. erm talking of which what are ex and pay dates going forward?

[loganair] 19/1/2011 08:59

chrisb1103 - One of the most important things to note is that the founder and CEO of Handsard only takes a salary of £1. All his salary comes from the dividends of the 40% of the shares in the company he owns.

This is why Handsard pay such a good dividend, they pay out almost all their profits as dividends while the CEO isn't really concerned what the short term share price is.

I just wish the other financial institutions did the same, that the pay of the board of directors and senior managers of all financial institutions were based on the dividends on a certain number of shares. Then if the company does well an increases it's dividends so will the directors pay go up as well as benefiting the shareholders.

The problem with most companies is their share incentive, bonus scheme whereby the directors gain as the share price rises. Therefore their only concern is the share price and not how well run and the profitablility of their said company. In most cases it doesn't matter how profitable or not a company is, the share price can easily be manipulated on a short term basis.

With Hansard, the CEO is only concerned with the long term profitability of the company and not the short term fluctuations in the share price.

[chrisb1103] 18/1/2011 23:20

Appreciated your posted forecasts and comments loganair.

A factor widely reported with HSD share price is poor liquidty, and so currently with a seller the share price has taken a hit. I remain a buyer here at this price for income clearly given the yield but also opportunities for capital growth.

Q2 new business figures are due on 27/01 and if they are as good as Q1 - GBP51.8m, an increase of 58.4% over the same period in the previous financial year (Q1 2010: GBP32.7m)... we'll see. The interim divi is announced on 24/02 for XD 2/03 so another likely share price driver here.

Whilst i note their cash has clearly reduced from the very high levels of 2008/09 they have "continued to generate strong net cash flows", and so unless i'm missing something glaring (has happened before), the divis are surely comfortably safe. With the yield so high you have to feel it must come down by a rising share price. The reported sustained impressive Q by Q Growth in new business must surely be driving up IFRS reported EPS with scope to beat forecasts above imo.

I do regard HSD as a solid player in the sector and note their regarded "low-risk business model" and industry beating margins. However, DYOR goes without saying when it comes to wading through the complexities of the accounts of a financial services organisation.

[loganair] 18/1/2011 13:11

environvison - I agree there is an awful lot propaganda going on here and what has been going on over the past couple of hundred years has been engineered by the finance houses for their owners and their nett high worth clients.

Over the past 10 years there is far more information being churned out over the web that the private investor can get hold of. However almost all this information is junk information which is 6 months to 12 months out of date whereas the large finance houses know what is going to happen in the next 3 to 6 months because they have forward information which they have gained because they have engineered what is going to happen in the first place.

The only higher authority is the chap up stairs as he is the only one who knows when the next earth quake or tsunami is going to hit and is the only thing that these finance house are unable to predict as, as of yet he is still independent and not on their pay roll!

[envirovision] 18/1/2011 11:40

Most of these so called economists tend to follow American rhetoric. Just about all these larger city firms will establish a public position on the views coming from the major American houses, US government and FED employees.

You need to remember just how large the Euro currency is as a major world currency.

When you have zero percent interest rates and are busy printing trillions of dollars trying to bail out a failing economy whilst hiding even larger numbers in non performing loans and devalued assets, then there really is only one thing you can do to try to support your currency.

Attack and attack and attack.

However I think it is becoming clear that each attack is gradually getting weaker and weaker and weaker.

Eventually the pendulum will swing the other way and start to smash the perpetrators into small pieces. When it happens it wont be a pretty sight, however I suspect when it does happen they many will suddenly be glad to be holding Euros.

[loganair] 17/1/2011 21:51

Well! On the sudden drop in the share price late this afternoon I bought a few, even though they show up as a Sell.

What worries me about investing in any financial stock or any stock at the moment is listening to the economist from Deloittes who says he still expects (not an If, but a WHEN) one of the countries to drop out of the Euro and default, otherwise they'll be paying off their debt for almost ever. And why should Germany keep bailing out the Euro while the bottom of the bucket is still haemorrhaging money.

I think the only hope the Euro has is if Russia and China back the Euro by buying Euro bonds as they have said they'll do.

[envirovision] 13/1/2011 13:03

Interesting, can you imagine the EU ever forcing the IOM into it? I always though so long as they complied with full disclosure there was little anyone could do.

[loganair] 11/1/2011 23:34

envirovision - Unlike the Channel Islands the IOM has the same VAT as the UK, so another 2 1/2% for the Manx Chancellor.

However the UK has stopped paying the IOM a £50m tax rebate which was paid as Manx residences often pop over to the mainland to buy things then taken them back to the Island. The same happened to the Channel Islands and is why now in Jersey there is 3% VAT when only a couple of years ago there was NO VAT as there currently is in Guernsey.

Also it's more to do with the EU pushing hard for the Manx Government to start to charge more tax, rather then the Isle of Man wishing to start charging this extra tax.

[envirovision] 11/1/2011 23:14

I dont see the fortunes of the Isle of Man changing any time soon, thats for sure. I mean its hardly like they need to start raising taxes to pay for the health services, education or pensions of the locals is it.

[loganair] 11/1/2011 22:32

Interesting that the Chairman only pays himself a salary of £1, basically all his salary comes from the dividends of his 40%+ share holding.

I think this is why Hansard pays out most it's profits to dividends, which should help to support its dividend.

[loganair] 11/1/2011 21:39

Forcast............................2011....................2012

Broker.............Date...Rec.Pre-tax.().EPS(p).DPS(p).Pre-tax().EPS(p).DPS(p)
Panmure Gordon...20-10-10.BUY..17.60....16.40...13.70...19.40....20.80..14.20
Numis Securities.04-01-11.BUY..18.50....13.30...13.40...21.50....15.50..13.60


One possible risk to profits: Introduction of business taxation on the Isle of Man:

Currently the Isle of Man Government levies a zero rate of corporation tax on the profits from the Group's activities but the Government has initiated a Consultation exercise to determine whether an alternative system might be implemented in the future. Additionally the representatives of the European Union Code of Conduct for Business Taxation have determined that the Isle of Man's business taxation system should be subject to a formal assessment that is likely to commence in September 2010. In view of this, we do not expect that business taxation policy decisions of the Isle of Man Government will be made public before the end of this calendar year.

Any changes to the current tax regime may impact on the profitability and value of the Group in the future.


Readers should be aware of consultations referred to in the Business Review in
relation to potential changes in the Isle of Man that might affect the Group's tax position.

[chrisb1103] 10/1/2011 20:45

Took as position here on the drop today mainly for the excellent yield (over 8% and should be comfortably safe, they have plenty of cash flow, no borrowings) Nice solid dependable company and with growth plans overseas going well (Latin America and Far East).

The yield is so good it surely has to come down so imv that means good possibilities of an share price rise into this spring. Downside surely is well limited (unless I'm overlooking something?) and so i see good rewards for the patient while the share price catches up with events. XD is 2/03/11 for the interim divi (chunky in itself, last yr 5.5p and should see an increase here i would have thought)

Drop today may be due to concerns flagged about slowing growth in financial services industry? but HSD new business figures are due 27/01/11 and should be good as we know from IMS of 4/11/10:

· New business on the basis of Present Value of New Business Premiums
("PVNBP") for the quarter is GBP51.8m, an increase of 58.4% over the same period in the previous financial year (Q1 2010: GBP32.7m)
· Regular premium flows have grown by 29.8% over Q1 2010 and single premium flows by 77.6%, aided by a small number of single premium cases totalling GBP20.3m
· Fourth consecutive quarter of new business growth on the PVNBP basis
· Overall new business margin of 5.1% (Q1 2010: 5.8%) reflects the impact of large single premium cases. Underlying margins remain industry-leading
· GBP1.2bn Assets under Administration as at 30 September 2010, up 7.5%
since 30 June 2010. Net positive policyholder cash flows have been maintained
through the period

EPS growth forecasts look decent, and brokers say buy with price targets around 200-215p

Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
30-Jun-11 77.25 18.63 14.63p 10.8 0.5 +23% 13.63p 8.2%
30-Jun-12 90.64 20.50 17.02p 9.3 0.6 +16% 14.10p 8.4%

I think there's an earnings acceleration which is underappreciated here (if the new business growth goes to the bottom line). Also i wonder whether HSD has been rather overlooked by the market for a while now imv - and the share price is due an upwards rerating. Interim earnings due 24/02/11 and as last year we may see a decent rise towards them and the interim divi date - that should act rather as a nice magnet towards it in fact.

Other views?

PS. another bonus is you don't pay any stamp duty when you buy these. Nice.

[robsy2] 03/12/2010 18:39

quite right too IMO. Hansard is a high quality operator.Steady earner.

[nellie1973] 03/12/2010 14:58

Broker upgrade today

[wilmdav] 29/9/2010 14:34

Thank you SteMiS, much appreciated as usual.

The 2008 AR puts it quite well.

The Group's own positive operating cash flows are not easily determined from the cash flow statement set out on page 38 as, under IFRS reporting, cash flows relating to the investment contracts are aggregated with those of the Group's operational activities.

As you say, HSD helpfully provides abridged versions of the Group's own cash flows and balance sheet. Appropriate amendments have been made to my spreadsheets and resultant charts.

Thanks also for clarification of the 'not a life assurance company' comment.