Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 15/10/2020 07:39

Agree - it absolutely could have been worse

[dandanactionman] 15/10/2020 07:29

All IMHO DYORMy first view on todays RNS is could have been worse.Disposal appears on track.Given circumstances reasonable level of rent collection

[researchcentre123] 14/10/2020 12:34

Coronavirus is what it's about which seems to be going up. Panic reactions have suppressed the price although in reality that is more than priced in given the ratio of 5 or six times asset value to share price. I think we'll see some dramatic movt in share price when they start dishing out vaccines.

[s34icknote] 14/10/2020 08:16

Worries over lock down I guess

[bolador] 13/10/2020 15:54

Much Profit Taking ?

Not really volume is down today compared to recent activity. Disappointing even so..

[williamcooper104] 13/10/2020 13:06

SPG in US - (they don't value properties on the balance sheet so can't do like for like comparisons) Best management team in industry, bomb proof balance sheet which they are using to buy bankrupt tenants Uniball (now owner of Westfield) is also cheap

[williamcooper104] 13/10/2020 13:02

Tis the joys of penny stockdom

[1hughb] 13/10/2020 12:20

So what we've got here then is real estate selling at under 20 percent of net value after a write-down. Previously there was a worry of breaching covenants. That's gone. Only issue is now covid and will pple never go back to shops. Bill Gates says vaccine will be starting to roll out by end of year so covid will presumably disappear in the beginning of next year some time. Shops will continue I believe with some changes and a move to more experiences like the football and other forms of entertainment in what is currently shopping space. There will also be some conversion to residential where possible. They have a lot of liquidity, probably not enough to do everything at once but enough to get started while they make the rest run well. But the key here is we're getting in cheap. I don't want a Bentley but if you give me one for 1/5 what they're selling for in autotrader, I'm going to buy it. Because even if I resell it at a deep discount I'm still quids in. Don't see any other real estate companies out there this cheap that have the liquidity to survive the pandemic, which Hammerson does

[bolador] 13/10/2020 12:09

Without corporate news a rise of 7p from 15 in such a short time is always going to meet profit taking, nothing sinister.

[researchcentre123] 12/10/2020 12:12

Well at least Atkins is going graciously and letting shareholders onto the board. It's difficult running a plc and there is a different mindset if you are a self made businessman to say someone who has always worked for someone else. Atkins was always more of a manager whereas the company needed more of a strategist. I think despite the new CEO and Chairman there won't be much happening now without De Beer's approval so there shld be some interesting moves ahead.

[sr2day] 12/10/2020 10:37

are we changing and consolidating trend?plenty of mileage left in this one imo.

[williamcooper104] 11/10/2020 21:02

To be fair (and that's hard) the previous management sold the city offices to Brookfield (despite Atkins saying that they were worth 50 percent of their real value) at the behest of shareholders who wanted a pure play retail REIT - a listed spin off would have been far better (which is what Liberty did - and the city/London retail part is still alive)

[researchcentre123] 11/10/2020 14:07

I think this is just a question of working on each asset and seeing what the best way forward is, as they seem to have started doing in Dublin. The problem with the old management was they attempted broad brush approaches and quick fixes that were invariably wrong anyway, for example let's buy intu or exit office, something showing their level of thinking. invariably the beauty is in details. Stage development is the best way to progress these days as it means you can be more flexible and it's also much better for cash flow.

[williamcooper104] 10/10/2020 22:34

Agree in that would have to sell another equity raise in a very different light JVs dilute returns and get complicated, most of their assets are already held JVsThey could sell assets - but hard until we see a proper recovery - or rather hard to sell at a decent price and selling better assets hits operating cashflow

[researchcentre123] 10/10/2020 18:17

I don't necessarily agree with that. It depends a lot on exactly what future plans are. In property the real money is always in development. If they want to go the development route then they can sell off some assets to generate cash to improve and develop others. They have a certain amount of cash available now anyway. They can also enter JVs as they have done in their central London development. I can not imagine Lighthouse would be overly keen to dilute their equity further and they do effectively control the company. I suppose if hmso could show huge potential upside then shareholders might go for an RI some time in the future but that would have to be a very different story to the last rights issue and I can't see there being any appetite for that for some while. So I would think far more likely they would sell down some assets, then consolidate and improve remaining ones. They anyway have time on their side now.

[williamcooper104] 10/10/2020 14:01

And your v right - the crucial thing is that it can keep the lights on with the capital raise (even if it will need more equity capital to execute a turn around)

[williamcooper104] 10/10/2020 14:00

Coming out the other end Bicester ought to be back to its former glory (unless it's hurt by VAT changes), Dundrum and the Bullring can be repositioned Amusingly the best thing that happened was probably the Orion sale falling through - unlike most shopping centres retail parks are cashflow positive and have bottomed out in value drop terms

[williamcooper104] 10/10/2020 13:56

I suspect they are, or rather where - online penetration in Europe lags behind the U.K. (but clearly catching up) One of their largest European assets is Dundrum in Dublin - I know it reasonably well and was chatting to a friend about it - seems to be same story as over here - terrible at moment but huge development/repositioning potential - but will require huge amounts of capex

[researchcentre123] 10/10/2020 13:33

https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3172514&headline=HMSNF-Hammerson-initiated-with-a-Buy-at-Societe-Generale

[bolador] 10/10/2020 12:01

I don't think we need to rely on de Beer's judgement here. The figures are available and clear enough to all so here is little risk of an immediate reversal of HMSO's survivability.
As I see it the main remaining risk is the pandemic and all it's ramifications.
Perhaps the shopping mall will never return to its former glory, perhaps the European/UK recession will be much longer and deeper than expected and so on. Macro risks are always with us of course but these are dangerous times indeed and that I think is why the discount to apparent nav is so large even though the solvency risk has gone for now. This share is a bet on economic recovery in recognisable form thus confirming that the company's properties have negotiable value.

[robertball] 10/10/2020 11:07

Are their European assets doing better than U.K.?

[williamcooper104] 09/10/2020 21:23

I get thatNobody was jumping into intu in its later days It's like insider buying - the fact that they are buying is no guarantee of success (they can be deluded) but if they aren't it's almost certainly a sign of failure

[researchcentre123] 09/10/2020 19:05

Yes I see it more of a confirmation that my calculation and presumably yours is right than the calculation itself, as he must think the stock is cheap too. Still of course the only confirmation that really counts is when the money hits your bank but in the meantime it's nice to see we are not the only pple who think it's cheap