Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[1hughb] 26/10/2020 23:32

There are some pple on this forum Bolador and we know who they are who were talking the stock down while shorting it with the rights issue and now although largely netted out the short are trying to talk it down a bit more so they can buy in even cheaper than it is..... I agree with you though, this stock is ridiculously cheap.

[bolador] 26/10/2020 13:53

Built in safety here is huge with nav covered five times. It can halve agin and still the share price will be well covered. Covid is not likely the end of the world and if it is does any investment have value ? er no.

[nickrl] 26/10/2020 10:02

mountpleasant I would imagine so although haven't checked but then every other landlord is equally exposed. Thing is though brands still need a shop window and whilst they might not a big store a prominent position in a high footfall areas is likely to be required. I also would suggest, as in the case of Next, if the rent is right they will stay so is this posturing by GAP to get a deal. Bottom line is retail is over rented in these big centres and 30-50% reductions seem inevitable. Things is retailers dont want, or can't in some circumstances, want to wait till the break so as i see it this is war of attrition on NRI over the next 12-18mths before we really know what the sustainable income is.

[mountpleasant] 26/10/2020 09:07

GAP are closing all retail stores.
Are HMSO affected by this?

[researchcentre123] 26/10/2020 06:51

The whole Board seems to be changing with Lighthouse in charge. New Chairman, CEO and now new head of Ireland:https://www.creherald.com/hammerson-appoints-connor-owens-as-new-director-of-ireland/Given the issue was largely the previous management, I would think this augurs well.

[researchcentre123] 23/10/2020 16:36

I agree. It's still trading at less than 1/5 net asset value - that's enough to allow for a few more weeks of lockdown, especially now the vaccines are appearing.

[kizil] 23/10/2020 16:28

MillennialInvester; not sure whether they are same. Also, I don't believe we will go back to full lockdown. Life is ongoing and we have to learn live it (trace track, face covering, etc). Even though I am doubtful of full recovery any time soon, I believe HMSO is over sold and expect a correction soon.

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 21:51

Interesting lesson on HMSO Shorting when the end point is a distressed rights issue is the best short If you short to an insolvency you can wait 2 years to actually get paid, and when you close early you run the short squeeze risk If it's a distressed rights issue you get almost the same upside but you can easily close your short Which is why HMSO was (from memory) more heavily shorted than Intu (which was always far more likely to go bust)

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 21:27

The tragic thing (or rather one of) about HMSO is the cross collaterised unsecured debt structure - so no key throwing/buying back loans on dogs - non-recourse debt is a life safer Land values/alternative use can be disastrous but if you have the capital to realise those values then it's less so If you weight Bicester and the retail warehouses as being correctly valued then you will be left with a very low value on the rest - which could be not far from land value (haven't had time to properly analyse this) I'm at the moment very cautiously optimistic on HMSO - Rob is a class act - new CEO is unknown

[thomstar] 16/10/2020 20:36

Shareholders likely to get screwed if it comes to land value

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 17:50

The right retail is still v valuable £20k a foot on Bond Street (recent post covid comp) Bicester is a discounted Bond Street - with higher sales densities (Proposed VAT changes are a threat though -and it won't fully recover until international travel/tourism is back)

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 17:47

You have to value the shopping centres on land value/alternative use There are post covid comps on the retail warehouses

[williamcooper104] 16/10/2020 17:45

MI HMSO is interesting Some good city centre locations - eg Dundrum, Bulling Plus Bicester - a globally unique asset The retail warehouses have good short tent cashflow and can be sold of (some of them convert well into logistics assets) even in this market Best time to buy real estate is after a war

[researchcentre123] 16/10/2020 17:08

You're right I'm down on this one Millennial for now but I'm not the only person who thinks it's going up. Here's another analyst voting that way:https://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/hammerson-plc-68-5-potential-upside-indicated-by-jp-morgan-cazenove/412863792The analysts are all voting in one direction at the moment. The shorts have dropped from 29 percent to 6.5 percent. There is a price for everything when it is too expensive and too cheap and right now it's too cheap.

[keithlorna] 16/10/2020 14:02

If this stock is so bad, move on and let the real investors speculate their hard earned cash.

[researchcentre123] 16/10/2020 12:16

It's all about price Millennial, it's not binary. The world is not 'heres the internet. No one will ever go to a shop again'. That sector will just have to change as it always has. This share is so discounted and there has been such an overreaction against it that it's not far off being given away. The values are still there which is evidenced by the sale of Via Outlets and even the insiders who continue to buy in. Wld you buy a rolls royce if it cost the same as a mini and had a suitcase full of cash in the back? Here for your 17p you're getting 104p value based on July's valuation. That price allows for any big drop in values and some. It's why insiders are buying in a big way.

[bolador] 15/10/2020 17:40

MillenialInvestor

A rise in share price from 15p to 22 in a few days followed by disappointing Covid news, which way do you think the next share price move was likely to be ?

I suppose some will have sold recently for odd reasons, we can never know but there is not much to worry as far as the company fundamentals go.Technically speaking any cat would feel quite jovial in fact, not being dead by a long chalk.

The story remains good with some analysts coming in with target sps well above the current share price See above.

[nickrl] 15/10/2020 10:06

Notwithstanding Atkins & Co flawed strategy this update exposes the scale of the misuse of the moratorium on the basis that after 6 months the outstanding rents are still at such a high level. One would have expected by now to be able to categorise them as at least deferrals but we know from RNSs across the sector that many well capitalised retailers are refusing to engage with landlords.

With the restrictions now enveloping the country again I doubt the moratorium will be lifted in December and there is a risk of more rent forbearance being sought by retailers and F&B that get restrictions slapped on them

So yes HMSO have cash in the bank to stay solvent for a few years but we aint out of the woods yet although Lighthouse and de Beers will keep topping up and will surely take the opportunity to take it out on the cheap.

[researchcentre123] 15/10/2020 08:40

https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/jpmorgan-slashes-target-price-on-hammerson--7675697.htmlThe old target price of course is irrelevant as the rights issue changed the share structure but in the last few days societe general have a target of 39p and jp morgan now at 30p, which implies the tide of opinion is turning. I would see this point as the nadir or lowest point, as come next year we'll have a gradual return to normality, assuming the vaccine predictions are correct. I guess Rita Rose has found a home with her nice moving allowance! Am glad she's getting on with it.