Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[escapetohome] 09/10/2020 18:49

Dont forget im in too, so are you.
I didnt follow de beers.

[researchcentre123] 09/10/2020 18:45

Blind following is always bad. Unfortunately Robert always made better decisions when working with his brother Vincent who was always the brains - and they weren't talking when he bought Sainsburies. But de Beer seems to have been quite level headed over his career and this seems to be quite a thought through play, with kicking out Atkins etc.. like you say, no one is infallible but on balance this man seems to have made some very good investment decisions in his life. I'd be inclined to have faith in his judgement.

[williamcooper104] 09/10/2020 17:10

I wouldn't have followed Joe Lewis buying into Bear Sterns (he lost a £1bn in a few weeks) Or Robert dumping £800m in a couple of days on Sainsbury's I know enough billionaires - of both gross asset (which is more common in real estate) - and net asset variety to not trust their investment decisions blindly - we all make mistakes

[williamcooper104] 09/10/2020 17:07

It's for European and non-European Puts us at a disadvantage to Paris and other European hot spots - would be very damaging Good chance though that it doesn't come in

[researchcentre123] 09/10/2020 16:45

So on that basis I would think it could quite a bit closer to NAV of 104p

[researchcentre123] 09/10/2020 16:36

The issue is how much of the previous discount to NAV precovid which I think was 50 percent was there because of incompetent management and shareholders thinking they were stuck with them. I would think almost all of it, and that management is now almost gone.

[bolador] 09/10/2020 13:48

Nice action, 16p a little rest 17p ditto and 18 and 19p. Whats fair value right now ?
Nav 104 say 80, shares say on 50 discount equals 40p ? Not serious but a bit of fun..

[catsick] 09/10/2020 12:39

They are in a great position, with capital and a large stake nobody can bully them ...

[researchcentre123] 09/10/2020 12:13

Well Lighthouse keep buying- up to 20%. It's strange isn't it that if an insider buys and keeps on buying, more pple dont follow - after all they effectively run hammerson thru de Beer. only they know what's really going on. I'm great believer in doing what the billionaires do not say. In this case de beer has bought hammerson both thru his company and personal trust, so for me that endorses the view that this is a very good bet. He always buys cheap assets that eventually catch up with the market

[bolador] 06/10/2020 08:43

Researchcentre123
HMSO offer size. The push through 18p reflects much less stock about than of late.
Have added a few.

[robertball] 06/10/2020 08:40

Bounce on RTN update?

[bolador] 05/10/2020 17:49

I think the duty free concession is to be withdrawn for inter European travellers. They can still buy stuff in the UK and have delivered home VAT free the world over.

[williamcooper104] 05/10/2020 17:28

Yep - there's interest but they are already paying commitment fees on undrawn debt so the marginal cost of drawing it is less than 1 percent Drawing the full revolver, even for a short period of time, would give support to the sp

[williamcooper104] 05/10/2020 17:26

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/09/30/end-duty-free-shopping-tourists-may-mean-big-job-losses/If this happens this would be v v bad for HMSO given that it's best asset (Bicester) is a hub for tourist shoppers (they literally take suitcases to go shopping there)

[researchcentre123] 05/10/2020 16:38

Frankly they don't remotely need that much. Even without the 1.2bn there's the covid loan of 300m and that 60m sale the other day - that nearly 2 years rent there. It doesn't make sense drawing more than you have to because there's this nasty item called interest you have to deal with.......

[williamcooper104] 05/10/2020 13:30

It's highly unlikely that they can draw all/most of the £1.5bn facility - they will have to make covenant compliance reps to do so and are unlikely to be be able to do that If they could draw it they would - drawing down max available facilities is first thing a treasurer does when s hits fan

[bolador] 05/10/2020 12:09

The real back of the envelope.
The last portfolio valuation, covid refecting, at mid year 2020 was £7692m.
Thus a ten per cent rise in value is worth £769m or 20pps to HMSO.(7692/3831)
Of course such an increase in value will not be cash and will not be reflected fully in the share price but it does illustrate the huge potential for gain a lasting recovery offers.
The successful rights issue has enabled HMSO to stay at the table despite an LTV of 42%. The current 85% discount to NAV is only comprehensible to grisly bears !

[researchcentre123] 03/10/2020 09:21

I just checked. So with the rights issue and sale they raised around 850m which was used to reduce debt. On 1st July they stated 'The Company has received approval for issuance of up to GBP300m under the Covid Corporate Financing Facility (CCFF), increasing maximum liquidity to GBP1.5bn' as they also have a 1.2 BN pound facility on top of the covid loan. So that's 1.5 billion in liquidity still, + 60 million for the latest sale - what they've spent since July. With a sensible person in charge now, I think that will go a long way.

[hopan] 02/10/2020 22:21

In the prospectus, if I remember correctly, they said they will use this cash to pay down debt and decrease LTV ratio... so they would not be keeping the cash to pay interest only.

[researchcentre123] 02/10/2020 21:35

I guess we see William. Before you correctly suggested that increasing shorts in a big way implied that some people had picked up on the bad news of the rights issue before it happened. Now we've got the reverse with shorts having massively decreased. My feeling is that with the new management, management ownership and the recapitalisation, there are some big changes afoot for the better. Of course there's the issue of what'll happen with covid, which isn't happening as soon as we'd like, but the company has the cash now to see this thru.

[researchcentre123] 02/10/2020 16:27

Seem to remember you buying at the bottom last time before it went up 350 percent.... .hope this is a good sign!

[bolador] 02/10/2020 15:26

Thanks R123, have bought some at .161411, will ad as news allows.

[williamcooper104] 02/10/2020 12:29

Will be interesting to see how it plays out Know one person who turned down what they saw as a hospital pass

[researchcentre123] 02/10/2020 12:09

From memory they pulled in 550m from ri, got another 200 or so net from the via outlets sale and got a 300m overdraft from the govt. I think there was another sale for 60m the other day too. I 'm not sure what they paid down in debt but I think they are way ahead of the game - I don't think they'd have a problem if they lost all the rents for the next 2 or three years. Whatever else happens they won't be running out of cash any time soon.

[bolador] 02/10/2020 11:36

Researchcentre123

Morning, could you please advise on what you see as the net cash position now they are ex rights ? I am not sure of my own sums !