Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[alexios1201] 18/9/2020 15:45

Depending how many tracker funds are still holding HMSODon't think there's many left after the relegation was announced

[typo56] 18/9/2020 15:44

Yes, but these are in part due to the FTSE relegation. 250/350 index funds could be having to sell HMON. Watch the uncrossing volume in the closing auction.

[alexios1201] 18/9/2020 15:39

HMON 4.5pThere will be a moment they won't be worth buying at all

[alexios1201] 18/9/2020 15:18

Damn HMON 5pStill 5sessions left for them to trade at near zero

[alexios1201] 18/9/2020 14:04

No matter how you look at it Hammerson is screwed if further lockdown restrictions are announced in UKWon't do good for hmsoAnd if nil paids start dumping further the holders will start panicking even more

[alexios1201] 18/9/2020 14:02

Not yet typoWaiting for the bombs released

[typo56] 18/9/2020 13:36

sr2day, the cost of taking up the new shares isn't 15p, it's 15p plus what you could have otherwise got selling the nil paid rights (HMON). However you play it, at the moment no-one is going to get shares at a net cost of 15p.

[lyndon b] 18/9/2020 13:12

Typo....many thanks, appreciate it.

[alexios1201] 18/9/2020 12:50

CorrectEven then why should you pay more than 15p while most are trading out of their hmons ans trying to build a free rideI say for fully paids to list and let it settleThe current pricing is disturbed

[technowiz] 18/9/2020 12:42

1,020,000 buy at 21.40 showing. time 12:32:46
now where did the MMs get those shares from? me thinks they are hiding some sells.

[grosstonnage] 18/9/2020 12:42

hughyou make good points. I thought it had bottomed as I did not believe the Hmso price would fall below the nil paid plus 15p.

[sr2day] 18/9/2020 12:41

new ivestors should not pay more than 20p for the new shares.this is 5p premium on the discounted shares of 15p.

[alexios1201] 18/9/2020 12:39

Best to wait and let all this nonsense to finish

[typo56] 18/9/2020 12:25

Lyndon B, a few days ago HMON were trading 17p-18p below HMSO. At times today they've been trading around 14.5p below HMSO. At the time I posted:-

HMON = 6.238p/6.400p
HMSO = 20.60p/20.93p

In other words, it would cost you more to buy HMON and take up the rights at 15p than it would to buy HMSO outright.

Also, selling the rights for 6.238p and buying HMSO at 20.93p would be a better deal than taking up the rights.

[1hughb] 18/9/2020 12:22

Well I think if anyone wanted to disprove the efficient market theory, they'd only have to look at Hammerson. Arbitration opps between hmon and hmso coming and going, assets worth 4.5 times share price, same company trading at less than 1/3 what it was trading for when the pandemic was 10 times worse (allowing for the RI) and finance was worse even without the RI..... On the other hand it is total proof that the market is driven 90% by sentiment with little regard for figures, and most traders are deciding only on that basis..... However I do think long term there has to be a move to catch up with asset value so I think when pple are less scared it has to get towards 104p where the asset value lies. I also think that pple will be happier to buy when the confusion over these shares is gone.

[lyndon b] 18/9/2020 12:13

Typo...if not too much hassle, I would appreciate a few lines on how you work that out please.
Lyndon.

[typo56] 18/9/2020 11:29

HMSO/HMON arb has reversed. Overall it's now cheaper to buy more HMSO in the market than it is to take up the rights

[typo56] 17/9/2020 14:04

I don't think the FTSE index thing is a big deal either beyond the short term and, as you say, they can probably get back in at the next review (needs to trade above about 16.5p). In fact, I'm a bit surprised FTSE decided they needed relegating at this stage because I thought they'd said they'd include the nil paid shares and the subscription price (the Dummy Call line) in the market cap calculation. Perhaps only from 21st Sept? I didn't fully understand their statement!

Typically when a company with near 100% free float is demoted from the FTSE 250 in the September review you get 1%-2% of the market cap traded in the closing auction. How's that going to work when most of the market cap is in the HMON shares?

[alexios1201] 17/9/2020 13:12

Share price is already trading at some 80% discount to NAV of 104pHow much more discount do you want???15p rights is equivalent to 3p in the old moneyThis is the wipeout levelFully paids admission next FridaySee where nil paids end up by thenCurrently ~7pSo HMSO are trading at over 12% discount to TERP of ~25.5pCrazy

[alexios1201] 17/9/2020 13:09

22p post consolidation is 4.4p pre consolidation Dude forget about this 140pNew fully diluted NAV at zero discount is ~104p

[researchcentre123] 17/9/2020 12:32

Well shares are equivalent of 37p under old system, from where they lept to 140p in a month last time. This is a volatile share ok. I don't think I'd worry too much about the small cap thing unless you're a day trader. Market cap is down to 33.6m due a stupid way of calculating it as all the value is in hmon, but on taking up of the rights, it'll be back in again very shortly. Just multiply 33.61m (current mkt cap) by 25 after the new shares are in, and the market cap is 840m,which is comfortably back in the index. Perhaps a few funds will sell as they have to, but then they'll have to buy back again.

[typo56] 17/9/2020 12:20

Just because the gap has closed I wouldn't count on the bottom being in. What are holders going to do at the end of the month when they see the '15p' HMSO shares in their accounts? That may be the time to buy, if you really feel the urge.

Next announced today that on the leases they're currently renewing so far they anticipate that, on average, rent in these stores will fall by -50%. Is that type of reduction really factored into the asset values?

There's also likely to be a bit of extra volatility tomorrow as it's the last day Hammerson trade in the FTSE 250 index. From next week they're in the SmallCap index. I'd expect large uncrossing trades in the closing auction tomorrow. HMON will be particularly interesting.

[grosstonnage] 17/9/2020 11:30

Gap closed, bottom in.

[typo56] 16/9/2020 11:29

The HMSO/HMON gap closed nicely this morning. It means arbitrage traders can bank gains without having to take up the rights.

[1hughb] 16/9/2020 11:26

Thanks Grosstonnage