Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[hodhasharon] 14/9/2020 13:06

I think we'll see 80p by the end of the week.

[sr2day] 14/9/2020 12:58

doubt the shopping centres will be packed this XMAS.maybe next year.Santa Claus will be shielded due to Covid and his age.but there is no doubt this is dirt cheap at the moment. But looks like there are still some games going on.

[researchcentre123] 14/9/2020 12:38

The shorters have been on the way out for some time hodhash. If you look at shortics you'll see that recently there have been 2 new shorters appearing since hmon was issued, shorting 2.65 percent. This seems a lot until you realise that it actually means they are shorting less than a million pounds of stock for a company raising 550 million. In the meantime the other shorters are closing out. The figures are all skewed because the real value is now in hmon, so really looked at overall there is less shorting.

[hodhasharon] 14/9/2020 11:53

There's a lot of buys going through. Everyone loves a bargain. Those shopping centres will be packed out by Christmas.

[hodhasharon] 14/9/2020 11:36

Up we go. Hope the retail shorters have deep pockets.

[researchcentre123] 14/9/2020 11:03

I guess this play is all in the timing and like you say CFDs wld be the way to play it. Interesting game if you time it right.

[typo56] 14/9/2020 10:09

alexios1201, I wrote "HMON currently trades 16p-17p below HMSO". By that I didn't mean HMON were trading at 16-17p.

In theory HMON should trade 15p below HMSO. With HMON trading 16-17p below HMSO, it is better to sell (short) HMSO than it is to sell HMON.

You can close your HMSO short by exercising the HMON rights. There is no stamp duty or dealing fees in taking up the rights.

If you are performing an arb and shorting HMSO you are probably doing this via a CFD/spread bet. In which case, no stamp duty on HMON long either. You may also be playing on the SETS book and trading 'the right side' of the spread, like catching HMON at 6.2 this morning.

[researchcentre123] 14/9/2020 10:01

The difference between the 2 is about 0.95p now or about 4.3 percent if you allow for the 15p exercising the rights. If you take this trade up buying one long and the other short now you have to allow for losing 2% on the spread buying hmon and .7 percent on HMSO. There may be 0.5% stamp duty too. And then you have to hope the spread closes further. It doesn't look such an exciting trade to me any more.

[alexios1201] 14/9/2020 09:46

If HMON trade at 16-17p HMSO would be at 32-33p where it is currently trading at ~23.2p

[alexios1201] 14/9/2020 09:45

HMON currently trading at 7p not at 16-17p you are stating7p is the premium of the nil paid of 15pSo the price is 22p

[typo56] 14/9/2020 09:08

Yes Robertinvestor, for every HMSO share you owned at close on 9th September you now own

1 x HMSO
24 x HMON (the nil paid rights shares)

The nil paid rights shares give you the option to convert to fully paid HMSO shares, by payment of 15p per share. Because this is a discount to the HMSO share price it means the HMON shares (which are tradable) have some value.

In theory that value should be the HMSO price minus 15p.

In effect, about 90% of the value of the HMSO shares you held at close on 9th September is now in the HMON shares.

You could sell HMON rather than take up the rights. However, the fact that HMON currently trades 16p-17p below HMSO makes this unattractive and if you want to obtain a better return you have to consider getting a bit sophisticated and look at shorting HMSO instead.

[1hughb] 14/9/2020 07:33

Hod what your breakdown of ownership doesn't allow for is that Desmond de Beer is a major shareholder in Lighthouse which together with APG are the largest shareholders. Given that APG are cooperating with the purchase of via outlets and the RI, it would seem likely that they support him, effectively now making him charge of 40% of the company - not such a bad thing when you consider he is a self-made billionaire who has consistently made money for his shareholders, unlike the Atkins etc who have consistently lost it. I think they say that if insiders are buying in, there is probably no better indication of positivity for shareholders.

[robertinvestor] 13/9/2020 13:06

Thank you, alexios120113.
I think the right issue shares is part of our shares.
You can see the previous price is 570p, the price is 23p now. It's diluted 25times; but your original shares holding is the same, plus 24(portions)shares right issue, you have to pay more if you want to have it.
If the shares right issue drops at 5p at the end date; that means you lost (15p-5p)x24x shares right issue.
HMSO is tricky to do fundraising.
The other companies normal dilute the price, also the shares holding; for example, you have 200shares at 570p, you will have 5000shares at 23p; then they issue the right issues shares at 15p, and allow retailers buy maximum 15000shares or £15000 to do fundraising. That's fair way, they should do.

[alexios1201] 13/9/2020 11:55

Why should the rights belong to you???This is not some charitable institution or something...Fundraising exercise where you pay to play

[alexios1201] 13/9/2020 11:54

I have silly question. I have 200shares at 570p, HMSO dilutes 25 times to make right issue.Now I have 200shares at 23p and 4800shares right issue at 7.1p; instead of having 5000shares at 23p. Why do I have to pay 4800shares at 15p? 4800shares should belong to me at 23p without paying anything. Now I have to pay extra money to get my shares. If I am not happy to pay extra for 4800shares, they will close my right issue; then I only have 200shares at 23p. It's very unfair. I think it smelled of fraud in HMSO. Anyone can explain for me?You don't have to pay for rights if you don't want to. Rights will lapse and you will receive the premium into your account on 25Sep. Nobody knows where will this premium end up. Can be 7p can be 1p and can be 10p per right it is unknown.Nobody cares it is fair or not...You either take the rights or sell them and bank the current 7.1p premium to minimise the loss from your ordinary shares holding.If you take your full rights you will have to pay 15p per right so 4800×0.15= 720 is your cost.This way your breakeven drops to 37pBasically pay up to average down or let it be and pray so that one day maybe Hammerson is trading at 570p again...

[robertinvestor] 13/9/2020 10:46

I have silly question. I have 200shares at 570p, HMSO dilutes 25 times to make right issue.
Now I have 200shares at 23p and 4800shares right issue at 7.1p; instead of having 5000shares at 23p. Why do I have to pay 4800shares at 15p? 4800shares should belong to me at 23p without paying anything. Now I have to pay extra money to get my shares. If I am not happy to pay extra for 4800shares, they will close my right issue; then I only have 200shares at 23p. It's very unfair. I think it smelled of fraud in HMSO. Anyone can explain for me?

[alexios1201] 13/9/2020 09:22

It's the other way around...As for the Mcap you have to count nil paids into it already so current Mcap is ~£860-880MAll time low Mcap was ~£305M or would be 8p equivalent on a fully diluted basisCurrent share price is ~23p60-65% downsideUpside? Net tangible asset value ~105pSo the shares are trading at ~20%Huge upsideBut let these nil paids shift firstNil paids still have loads of premium in them so anyone selling nil paids are locking a cool near 45-50% profit

[1hughb] 13/9/2020 07:36

I don't think the percentage short on hmso means very much any more as the whole value of the company more or less now is in hmon. So if someone is playing the arbitrage game and going long on hmon and short on hmso, if they had 2 percent of hmon they'd have to short 24 times that in hmso or 48 percent of the 36m market cap. Obviously the company is worth more than 36m but that value won't be shifted until the RI is complete. In the meantime it leaves short figures meaningless unless you add in hmon and consider the company as a whole, in which case I suspect you'll find the trend is still down-after all if you are both shorting and longing then the Net position is zero, which is of course what the arbs are trying to do.

[typo56] 12/9/2020 11:55

As alexios1201 points out, traders playing the HMON long/HMSO short arbitrage can net off their HMSO short by taking up the rights at 15p. Yesterday you could sell HMSO for 2p-3p more than the cost of buying HMON and taking up the rights, which seems a bit of an open goal for traders, as long as the HMSO shorts don't get called in early.

As far as I can see, there are no dividends or other benefits attributable to the HMSO shares that are not attributable to the HMON rights. Sometimes this can be the reason why the rights appear to trade at a discount, but I don't think that's the case here.

At the end of the month I think the HMSO shorts will probably reduce in absolute numbers as traders net off their arbs and will reduce massively in percentage terms as the rights shares become fully paid HMSO shares.

[alexios1201] 12/9/2020 11:02

Zero ramps on twitter haha.

[hodhasharon] 12/9/2020 10:35

This is being ramped over Twitter so expect the herd buying to force the shorter’s hands.

[alexios1201] 12/9/2020 09:25

Shorts will close through the nil paids conversion...Or wait until the listing.There's tons of nil paids finding the new home already and no squeeze is happening and this should be the telling.Expect some turbulence in the next 10-20trading sessions

[alexios1201] 12/9/2020 09:21

More like 10p than 100p