Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[researchcentre123] 25/5/2020 09:47

The worse off the market is, the better the opportunities are to profit.  As the richest man in the world at the time Baron Rothschild said, "Buy when there's blood in the street." Given the panickers out there whose existence Mason confirms, it seems the best time to buy for a long, long time - when people cease to look at fundamentals and sell on a purely emotional basis disregarding the price, it really is the best time to buy.

[s34icknote] 24/5/2020 20:44

The premium out let footfall was up 9.7 percent last year !The concept is obviously working !97 percent rented out !!!I think most people are now fed up of being cooped up at home !Lots will want to get back to shopping !Retail therapy can't be done online!People soon forget and move on !And I think this will happen with covid !Lots of retailers will catch up on rental payments in the second half or spread the payments !Some are just taking advantage !Just like Man U not paying their tax bill but paying a div to the glaziers !Sicknote

[ny boy] 24/5/2020 19:30

Onwards & upwards, more retailers opening soon, people are out and about looking for bargains. Likely takeover target in Q4 imo

[777mason] 24/5/2020 19:09

Hong Kong Erupts: Tear Gas Deployed As Thousands Fill Streets To Oppose China's National Security Law

American small businesses are going to bear the brunt of the COVID Crisis and they employ 47% of the entire US workforce. Some will bounce back quickly (e.g. health care, construction, professional services) but accommodation/food service and retail will not. There are 18 million workers attached to small businesses there. Bottom line: at this early point in the cycle, large businesses have to find their footing because that’s what will set the floor on small business activity. The sooner that happens, the sooner small business America can start to recover.

do you really think things are going back to normal?

[777mason] 24/5/2020 19:05

The USA the Uk will follow...As we are no longer part of Europe and more in line with Trump the USA

"All that was missing was a catalyst... and according to Bloomberg, that catalyst arrived in the past week or so, as retail landlords have been sending out thousands of default notices to tenants, who in turn have experienced a collapse in foot traffic, sales, and cash flow due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and are simply unable to pay their debt obligations.

According to Bloomberg, restaurants, department stores, apparel merchants and specialty chains have been receiving notices from landlords - some of whom have gone as long as three months without receiving rent.

The stakes are enormous, and landlords are suffering, too. An estimated $7.4 billion in rent for April hasn’t been paid, or about 45% of what’s owed, according to a recent analysis by CoStar Group, which also found that just a quarter of expected rent payments have been received by landlords.
"The landlords do have the legal contract," said Green Street Advisors senior analyst, Vince Tibone. "However, from a practicality standpoint, a lot of these retailers are on the brink of bankruptcy and simply cannot pay right now."

However, as noted above, landlords are of course still stuck with their own bills - including bank debts which they're expected to pay. On Thursday we reported that US malls are in a crisis which started in January as vacancies hit a record high

“The only thing worse than being a retailer right now is being a retail landlord".”

[777mason] 24/5/2020 18:15

Williamcooper104 thank you and yes you are right management not investing is a very good avoid signal

Researchcentre123

Brent Cross shopping center owner Hammerson has revealed that it had only been paid 37 percent of the total UK-billed rent for the second quarter of the financial year this is related to the march accounts 2020 Taking into account rent deferrals, waivers and those who have switched to monthly installments, the proportion rises to 57 percent of what was due. taking into account wants in front of Hammerson I see this share price being diluted. the fact that they are on a buyback mission and giving a low cash dividend to the shareholders. using excess cash to buy up their stock in the open market is the opposite of what companies should be doing, which is reinvesting to facilitate growth unless they see no growth which contradicts what you are saying.
companies buy back shares to raise capital for reinvestment. This is all good and well unless the money isn't injected back into the company. can you guarantee they will happen No YOU CAN'T
most investors will choose a dividend over higher-value stock; many will rely on that regular payout that dividends provide. but a low-value stock with a low dividend not in my world and I hope I can bring some light to overs.i wish you all the best

[researchcentre123] 23/5/2020 09:31

I don't really believe that this is a turn around situation Williamcooper. To achieve its full asset value, it would need to be, but for a large share price increase, as it is all management need to do is to sit, wait for the pandemic to calm down then start collecting rent again. That's it and all that's required to get a substantial increase in share price. No great skills required there.

[researchcentre123] 23/5/2020 08:44

Mason when the price was 40p you showed that you thought the low price was justified by taking the debt off the enterprise value without realizing that had already been done to reach the figure and said don't buy. But as your assumption was wrong and you were double counting it means real value by your own calculations is 600p. Even then you changed to don't buy as it's retail. I'm not sure your attempts to help people are really doing anyone any good as you seem to want any argument that the share price should go down and so far you've cost those people who were put off a return of 50%. If the calculation shows it's a sell you adopt it. if it shows it's a buy you ignore it and move on to a different argument. My belief is they are cheap and in the long run asset value should push share price. They also have enough cash to survive. That's it and that is why I am long. If someone can show me I'm wrong then I'll reconsider my position.

[williamcooper104] 22/5/2020 21:53

Exactly Never invest in a turn around if management aren't investing and why the management team who turned down a bid at just a small discount to NAV (opening bid) Management investing does not guarantee success (far from it) but management not investing is a very good avoid signal They know the liquidity position, the conversation with lenders

[777mason] 22/5/2020 20:10

TRCML
I've seen many traders playing a part when shares are dropping in my time and Researchcentre123 does have some good points but saying this I also hate to see traders that promise the world and all will be ok let not forget there are shareholders here that have been holding from plus £6 and were promised the same dream has Researchcenter is promising. The big drops since it is no coincidence there is reason way management is not buying, hedge funds are not buying, pension funds are not buying so tell me is Researchcentre123 the only enlighten buyer out there or is he a seller try to prop up the price. has for the end of the world no but if I can stop people from losing money then yes.

[williamcooper104] 22/5/2020 17:31

U.K. stock markets and U.K. property companies haven't had the best relationship Mainly that's because most U.K. REITs are not the best in terms of management (HMSO and Intu being both outstanding examples of this)US reits work much better frequently trading at premiums to NAV, carrying out multiple accretive equity raisings, creating a lower WACC than private market asset returns and are far more specialised. Segro and PHP get this but the Land/BLs and retail reits don't HMSO needs to raise capital - little doubt on that - selling assets at the moment is not very clever so only option is equity

[trcml] 22/5/2020 16:09

"Researchcentre123 turns up from the deep blue sea gives himself an important name like the research center and pretends to know everything there is to know about Hammerson…" except not knowing who the significant shareholders are without asking on this board.


I cannot help thinking, Mason, that your comments vs those of Researchcentre123 read like people with nothing better to occupy their time than argue about nothing of any consequence. On the one hand, it comes over like it's the beginning of the end whereas of Researchcentre123 as if it's the end of the beginning.


As someone actively involved in the shop property market advising landlords and tenants, what is needed in my view is clear-headedness. In my view, there are only two factors that are affecting HMSO right now.


Difficulty in collecting rents and limited demand for shopping centre investments. The former is a temporary issue which will be resolved now that the shock of lock-down and social distancing has faded and Hammerson and its tenants can work out a mutual beneficial arrangement.


Demand for shopping centre investments will pick up once the rent payment situation is sorted but whether demand will rise to the level experienced previously is a long-term structural issue. The previous level saw yields that in my view were too low for the risks.

As for rights issue, HMSO have not indicated any need for capital injection.

As for share price, the stock market and property companies have never really understood each other. Partly I think because stock market investors tend to be more emotional and short-term in outlook. A few million people buying from Amazon and that's it? I don't think so.

[researchcentre123] 22/5/2020 15:44

Seems quite flat today

[researchcentre123] 22/5/2020 10:44

Well your argument is that it's the end of the world where everything collapses. Mine is it's just another recession and we will climb out if it just as we have every other one. Even if it is the end of the world, it still makes sense buying cheap tangible assets - those buildings will still be here in 50 years time

[777mason] 22/5/2020 10:31

Researchcentre

you may be right in what you say but in the times we're in today. No charts, statistics, or commonsense hold any weight anymore, governed by the corrupt governing bodies and corrupt MM which are betting agist their clients since 2008 there has been more dilution in the market then I can remember and that is with companies which are ridiculously cheap has you put it. Until the market is popular regulated there is no safe investment. the whole world living a lie. How can anyone believe that the fake world the Fed and their fellow central bankers have created has anything to do with reality... the world needs a forest fire. "IT IS ALL AN ILLUSION" which is dependent on the world in which it can be control everything through debt and the fake monetary system they have created. But this fake system is about to implode and companies like Hammerson will go with it.

[researchcentre123] 22/5/2020 09:17

There are long term trends Mason and short term. Electric cars will without doubt replace petrol - but I'm not going to dump a good Merc in the breakers today as a result. There's still some good value in it at the right price - and as for the company if they move with the times and adapt there will be value in them too This company is ridiculously cheap however you do the valuation. That is why people like lighthouse are buying. if you take the shorts out - pple who have no stake in the company and are just gambling short term - then the price would be significantly higher. Perhaps some good will come if it - it gets lighthouse entering cheaper - but I think this stock makes sense if you're in it long term

[777mason] 22/5/2020 08:59

Researchcentre123

the mistake was on my part the "enterprise value was a double count on my part but that still does not take away "The volume of clothing sales plunged by 50.2% compared to March, which had seen a 34.9% drop. The data also revealed the amount spent online was the highest on record in April 2020 at 30.7%, versus 19.1% reported in April 2019".the moral of that info is the on line shopping.

[researchcentre123] 22/5/2020 08:33

I think on the management side if lighthouse put up some proposals and even possible replacements other shareholders would look on it favourably. On the rights issue side, and I'm not certain it's necessary as hmso are solvent, if it were to happen that cash balances are boosted then the low price largely takes that into account that balances aren't so high so I see the price could recover despite dilution. The biggest thing seems to me that Lighthouse have just raised 200m which they now have to do something with. The big shorters don't seem to have changed their position since February. If there is an increase, must be smaller shorts perhaps reacting to the recent price hike.

[williamcooper104] 22/5/2020 08:15

It is the main explanation It's what's commonly understood by the market and it means it will be now hard for hmso to roll loans without it The extra upside for shorters is the management team who could easily crash the car - they have form As many have pointed out a fair few of HMSOs assets are decent - which is why I'll have a look at taking a buy and hold long at the time of the rights issue (and assuming there's new management)

[clive10] 22/5/2020 07:59

Another reason for shorters increasing might be £2.4 bn debt and a huge question mark over the asset value...

[sr2day] 22/5/2020 05:23

With the declared shorts ever increasing to over 13% i am beginning to feel uncomfortable.i wonder whether there is a right issue that is imminent.holders will be able to take their rights and the ex rights shareprice would be lower thus benefiting shorters.this is the only explanation i can think of for shorters increasing.

[researchcentre123] 21/5/2020 23:04

Mason you still feeling hard done by that I showed you were double-counting the debt so your calculations were all wrong then questioned if you might might be trying to influence the market in a downwards direction with false info? Perhaps that was just a mistake on your part but you never did say where the "enterprise value" figure came from or how it was calculated. I'm just a small investor Mason and appreciate the shared knowledge here most of which happily is correct and some people have been most helpful explaining things and giving their opinions. I'm a value investor ie long term buying below asset value which this fits in nicely. I'd love to be short term trader but just don't understand it. Sadly I have no forward knowledge, just what I can find online like like most of the rest of us.

[williamcooper104] 21/5/2020 21:13

No idea - I think it's closer to 10

[777mason] 21/5/2020 19:39

Researchcentre123 turns up from the deep blue sea gives himself an important name like the research center and pretends to know everything there is to know about Hammerson make you wonder who may be paying wages I've seen guys like this come and go, from share like this before a little bit of froward knowledge pass down makes a player look trustworthy.