Hammerson Share Discussion Threads

[sr2day] 15/5/2020 16:47

don,t be ridiculous,so everybody will stay at home for the rest of their lives.a vaccine will be found sooner or later and life will go back to what it was.it may take 3months or more but the chinese will come up with a vaccine after Trump has gone.they may have found it already.

[777mason] 15/5/2020 15:47

Researchcentre123

social housing you mean affordable apartment Hammerson don't do social housing 942sq feet will cost you around £600,000 who going to buy them with all the unemployment who will afford to go shopping and who will be eating at restaurants in malls

[researchcentre123] 15/5/2020 15:33

Trcml where can I find a list of hmso major shareholders?

[s34icknote] 15/5/2020 15:32

3.00 a share in January Paying 25 p dividends for last five years Reducing div next year to a whopping 14 p !Roll up roll up !!!!!Sicknote

[trcml] 15/5/2020 14:16

I wonder whether Lighthouse Capital's buying into HMSO is a front? Aberdeen Standard is a shareholder in Lighthouse Capital, also AS is in a joint venture with HMSO. APG is in a consortium with AS on another project. Institutional stakes including APG with about 20% total about 48% of HMSO as it is, without LC's >10%.

[researchcentre123] 15/5/2020 13:00

It's all about the negotiation - sometimes you can provide the social housing somewhere cheaper. And I don't agree with £400 psf - could call it 300 to be generous. The world is changing. There will be a lot of office space, as essentially it's all moving to people's homes, so I think the authorities will be lenient. There is some value in social housing too, or of course you just pay the council. This second of course it's less per sq ft....but in 3 years, probably £3k sq ft as inflation kicks in and low interest costs. But however you look at it, there'll be money it, and if they do a half-decent job, a lot of it.

[williamcooper104] 15/5/2020 12:13

It was £2k psf - less now - no shortage of £1-3m high rise apartments - social/key worker housing is going to be 40-50 percent - so average sale price likely to be below £1k psf And the build costs are more like £400 psf - and then there's the mega 106s Khan will seek

[williamcooper104] 15/5/2020 12:06

You may soon thank your portfolio :)

[researchcentre123] 15/5/2020 11:37

So by my calculations this is the cheapest stock in the entire market. In 4 years time, the 600p pershare net assets will be 1200 assuming we have inflation as was generated in the last recession when they printed money - and they've printed much more now.

[researchcentre123] 15/5/2020 11:32

I reckon they have their costs for the year in the first quarter's revenue, not really a problem for them to survive in my opinion.

[researchcentre123] 15/5/2020 11:30

In reality looking at their cashflow I don't think they need a rights issue. Might be helpful at some point for them but I think they can get away without it. The banks know that they lose money if they repossess, so are better off letting companies work their way out of problems. If you had a tenant who couldn't pay now but was decent, would you kick them out now when there's no one to replace them or wait with an agreement to repay when they were allowed to go back to work? How about if you had 100 tenants in the same position? Doing deals is just the way it is today as everyone has problems, just as hammerson are doing deals with some of their tenants.

[sr2day] 15/5/2020 11:30

soon they will have the lot by the look of it.

[s34icknote] 15/5/2020 11:29

Interest was 89 million last year , and debt has reduced since then with 542 million of property saved .They save 113 million by not paying the final div .Admin costs are around 50 million .10.00 am rns , dam 4 hours 12 minutes out !!!!So 100 million drawn from debt facility , 113 million div saved ,21 million from Orion , gives you 230 ,million on top of cash in the bank. Reckon it cost 150 million to run ? Per year ?Sicknote

[spontaneous combustion] 15/5/2020 11:26

Don't they have another 10% through their other 3 entities or am I reading the notification holdings wrongly?

[aim999] 15/5/2020 11:24

Lucky to have got in about 40p .... having personally seen the reaction to the lifting to the lockdown in Australia the shopping malls will be packed in a few weeks time..... retailers here are comparing it to Christmas

[sr2day] 15/5/2020 11:20

i wish i could double up here.my portfolio would not let me.

[ny boy] 15/5/2020 11:04

Bears, would not want to stay short here, close those shorts before it’s too late imo

I know the guys at Lighthouse, shrewd investors dyor as usual

I have been accumulating a Little known tiddler (ICON)

[bolador] 15/5/2020 11:03

Yes but how much cash do they need to raise ?

If the lost sale of the retail parks £400m could cause breach of cv and collapse we know that the need for cash is somwehere inside that figure. Recently Peel Hunt seemed to think that HMSO could survive on the cash and bank lines they had ex retail parks and on the figures that looks reasonable excepting the banking cvs.

I would like to think Lighthouse would not appreciate a rights issue at this time.
Does this put pressure on Lighthouse to hurry up with any deal.

Seeing how the HMSO board treated the £6.21 bid form Intu I would not be surprised if the HMSO board took active measures to prevent takeover.

Things are hotting up.

[sr2day] 15/5/2020 10:54

time for the shorters to decide what they want to do before the weekend.come monday we may well have good news.watch this space.

[researchcentre123] 15/5/2020 10:32

Lighthouse are real estate investors, which means long term. What we have now is short term panic - I've done my figures and it still upsets me as it goes down so its not surprising people who haven't crunched the figures panic. The shorters count on that, hope to force the price down and trigger stop losses which releases more shares onto the market, and the lower share price makes it even harder to raise money. However, long-term how can this really fail? Are bankers really going to repossess a company that just is breaking a few covenants because a once every century calamity arrives? They'd be stuck with dealing with the problems themselves. Instead if you were a banker, surely you would work out the problem - let them find someone else to sell some buildings to, as they were doing. Let them carry on developing and improving the malls. The alternative is they close almost all of their clients down and have to pack up business themselves....and times have changed since the 80s when that did happen and they lost huge sums. Now its about supporting your customers and the government will support the banks.

[hooley] 15/5/2020 10:27

The danger for the shorters is an agreed bid well north of the current share price Any advance on 100p?

[researchcentre123] 15/5/2020 10:23

Actually I think you'd make much more than I mentioned. Resi there is 2000 per sq ft. So £2000 * 1.4 million * 50% would bring in £1.4 billion. Allowing £200 sq ft build £1.3 billion would be their share...... Not sure what they are planning but hopefully that's something worth looking at.

[bolador] 15/5/2020 10:21

Research,

Thanks for your useful posts.

How much new cash do HMSO need to keep going for one year ?

What has Lighthouse seen that the market has not ?

[researchcentre123] 15/5/2020 10:17

Yes let hope so. Maybe they could have the lot resi - after all, 44% of people working from home now not 12%. There will be a lot of empty office space out there as people discover the new way to work.