Wiilliamcooper agree that the way CVAs were used means property is hugely exposed as they don't have the ability to vote it down based on overall financial liability of lease length. Reckon we will see plenty of rent frees being granted to keep tenants in place and avoid empty store costs. the other factor is whether lenders will be lenient on covenants again.
Certainly interesting times and im out of this one but always keep a watching brief to see what read across there is. |
I'm out at moment - but watching Agree - its got to be very sensitive to the wider economy We can now assume that all leases if not turnover related effectively are, or rather turnover but only so long as a tenant is profitable, tenants have gotten into the habit of not paying rent now, plus CVA still v tenant friendly Thus we are likely to see rental levels fall, until there's a recovery in the UK economy The balance sheet is key; gives some runway to buy in and not get your timing right |
As they're in sell off mode, maybe the best thing is to get rid of everything bar Bicester which is their best asset (though from memory they still don't have a controlling ownership in it) |
Amusingly I tired to short HMSO before the fiscal event but couldn't get any borrow And if I had, I would have managed to short the only REIT that actually rose post the budget The tourist VAT thing is massive for Bicester - question is whether labour keep it (assuming it's almost inevitable that they get in within the next 24 months) - my guess is they won't |
HMSO has >£300m in cash - enough to cover all maturities to 2025 - and an undrawn RCF. |
have they got surplus capital to do so? |
With many of the sterling bonds trading at a big discount to par, I wonder if HMSO might be tempted to launch a tender offer to repurchase some of them. |
Resilient 2 Proprietary Limited (SA entity) have appeared on the register with 3.1%!! |
They will be opening turnip restaurants. |
Where do you stand on this now? You in, out or short? It's certainly become cheap now. Issue is what the economic future holds. |
I think when they were selling stuff off during peak pandemic, the real issue was who would buy quickly. I agree retail parks are better than shops but sometimes it's easier to sell the mansion cheap than the hovel cheap |
Interesting HMSO is actually over the last week or so I think one of the top performing/least losing REITs Makes sense - it's less exposed to rising rates hiting the yield part of their valuations And it's got a huge win from the budget as tourists will now be able once again to get their VAT back - of course that's very positive for Bicester village - plus with the weakest pound ever tourism will boom Still has to be lots of problems with its other assets and wider domestic consumer sentiment and retailers now being so prone to just not paying rent when their profits collapse |
This is a bargain right now.goes ex div next thursday wilth the option of scrip dividend of 2p. works out 10percent yield. |
McKinsey screwed up my industry with their expensive report which was never stress tested for robustness before implementation. |
Yep; was a hospital pass But ditching the retail parks was an unforced error The logic from Mckinseys would have likely been that a pure play reit on urban flagships would in time trade better than a reit with s mixed bag of assets (same rationale for why hmso sold their city offices) And there's merit in that theory, but all that matters in the short to medium term is cashflow; and you don't sell your cash cow and keep the cash draining assets |
it's a hospital pass for any new management team. they've sold the predictable cash generating retail parks and are left with structurally challenged assets. values there may have bottomed out, but there's been a very significant and permanent loss of capital whatever happens from here on in.
still can't believe how wrong McKinsey were - these are supposedly people at the cutting edge of industry. in a detailed (and expensive) report they told HMSO to sell their retail parks for whatever they could get (at what turned out to be close to the bottom of the market) and concentrate on shopping centres. the blind leading the blind.... |
I must agree with you M_Kerr
With asset of over 1 billion £ and NAV of over 76p p shares.
We do need New Managements?. |
Been very good for Brookfield |
this is the worst managed REIT i've come across, by some margin. virtually all their major decisions have led to significant value destruction for shareholders, and worse, they've used shareholder capital to pay the extremely expensive management consultants Mckinsey to make those decisions for them. |
Steaming pile of excrement this is |
Yep; it's unlikely to do an Intu Management have been deleveraging, but that's enough to keep it alive but until we see a better outlook for consumers then it's hard to see this thrive Selling of the retail warehouses to Brookfield didn't make a lot of sense - far better to keep them for the cashflow and low operating costs |
HMSO isn't quite an INTU but its a busted flush lead by people that haven't come to terms with the reality of the economic situation and positioned the business accordingly. Discretionary spending is facing a cataclysmic decline although i suspect Truss will attempt to neutralise some of the impact but that is just storing up worse problems for the future but for sure it will result in risk on response by the markets so got to get your entry point right here. |
This will recover.patience is key here.lighthouse has got a big holding here. |
Good question Citi just forecast UK inflation to get to 18 percent Whatever - the outlook for consumer economy is not exactly great |
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