why is HMSO plummeting? |
Shareholders got right royally mugged off here |
Stability was the least that should have been expected given the actions they've taken to destroy shareholder value. Anyhow question is has it got the resilience to withstand the recession given its tenants are highly leveraged to discretionary income expenditure which is going to take a huge hit unless we are all going to leave the heating off and go shopping or eating out to keep warm. At least they can manage the debt for a couple of years with 500m on hand as well as cover the CAPEX they are planning but listening to the presentation feels like they are too bullish to me. |
"The charts suggest to me that this must revisit it low of 15 before it can go up, I see this happening before the end of September." For those of us that trade, let's hope you're right. |
Yes stabilised nav is encouraging now its no longer a moving target |
Results look good to me and NAV is 62p. I am in at 23p today. |
The charts suggest to me that this must revisit it low of 15 before it can go up, I see this happening before the end of September. |
I've bought in again, thinking that as the NAV is valuation opinion such is likely to be less cautious now that confidence has returned to the market NAY is just over 60p so the prevailing share price is circa 35% of that, HMSO properties are undoubtedly prime and provide scope for a range of initiatives beyond pure retail: for example, office development, residential flats, car parking, battery storage development (for which demand is currently hot). >ok, retail leases are shorter and more flexible and retailers expecting and still getting good deals but rent collection has effectively returned to normal; and really the only benefit of revenue is to fund borrowing and pay employees. Had HMSO - and for that matter any other propco, been valued solely on cash-flow the share price would've always been much lower. >Interim results 28 July 2022. |
Thanks William. I find this a hard one to evaluate now. There's a huge discount to NAV. Theres inflation that puts prices up. There's the decline of shopping in retail which continues with a redevelopment requirement and they're short of cash there. But they've got a good team. It seems to come down to what they can do with these assets and at what profit. |
Generally until about 6 months ago was felt that book valuations were ahead of the market but that recent transactions have created evidence that's now been reflected in red book valuations The issue is more the forward looking share price value - which reflects some further falls - cost of living crisis pain on tenants |
Does anyone here know how their last property sale compared with it's book value? (I'm trying to get a handle on how closely their DCF valuation system reflects what stuff can get sold for) |
At least in it's current form. They'll to scale it back quite a bit. Shame really |
Https://www.irishtimes.com/environment/2022/06/21/plonking-16-storeys-in-front-of-peoples-houses-is-ridiculous-planned-residential-scheme-for-dundrum-village-prompts-concerns/I think this suggests that development is unlikely to succeed |
Researchcentre123,Property developers are always seen as bad guys, not always only when they bring distraction to community and buy up land for pennies in the pound, then you have dissent which serves no-one prospers, but if they tried to look at serving the community interest before self-interest then possibly they may rip the rewards of loyalty or even rip a good reputation, every day we see profits are taken out of community instead of ploughing some back in, Through its Red Book, the RICS sets the standards by which land and property are valued, unlocking the homeowners inherent value held within their home assets, but the main question is, for who is the value of land being unlocked for And who consequently miss out, the people are hitting back at corporations boycotting shopping centres were and when they can, they are feed up with overpriced good’s cafés and restaurant, people want to be able to walk and park their cars at local shop and boutiques not cloned shopping and eating. |
don, allow yoursef to be mugged by MM.the market is rigged. |
I was only going on the negative reaction to it reported in the press, which I was guessing would stop it going ahead. Property developers are always seen as the bad guys even when they're brining major improvements. |
Hi been away, just seen the price. Based on the trust, of the MM, which was lost a long time ago. I now see this at 17p, Researchcentre123 everything you have based your research on was correct, it not that you have got it wrong, it is the market are corrupt, and have been since they dismounted live trading, algorithm works only for the M Makers we see this in the nickel trading when they hit the lost button and stop all loses for the banks, go through the all small caps companies on the list and see how many have been reverse stock split with a higher price and then devalued with in months just like HMSO it a rigged game coming to an end. |
Unlet... The large units I refer to are unlet, empty.
One tenant is HOF, nother is Gap.
They are gone. |
There is a practical distinction between "empty" and "vacant". Empty mean unoccupied but that doesn't mean that the premises are not let. Amongst multiple retailers particularly those with loss-making branches it is generally cheaper to not occupy a shop than trade from it. |
If you are referring to Dundrum phase 2.. they are unlikely to succeed in planning application as it stands. Everyone is against it.
I think they misreporting the occupancy % in phase 1. There's no way it's 97% let. I can count a few empty units, 10-20'000 sq ft. And other empty units. |
Researchcentre123.... It's possible to check about that anywhere? |
I guess the Irish development is a bit of a disaster |
It's not the US where you can't be below 1 dollar or you get delisted. What I'm interested in is what is the state of the business here - are they progressing, treading water or what? They're really jumping way below asset value again now |
At what point do they delist? |
Any issues with debt needing refinancing or is that all taken care of? |
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