Hambledon Mining Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 14/2/2013 20:58

pineapple

You must surely be joking!

The banks have been a terrible investment over the last decade. Take a 10-year view of their charts and compare their average trends per annum with the miners.

RBS -7.8% pa
LLOY -11.98% pa
BARC 1.47% pa

If they had matched physical gold their share prices would be RBS £273 not £3.48, LLOY £17.6 not £0.548, BARC £28 not £3.19 !

Compare against the 10-year trends of some of the miners that I have personally held (and still holding some) over that period.

MML 65% pa
CEY 32% pa
BHP 21% pa
RIO 11.3% pa
FQM 44.3% pa
RRS 35% pa
VED 16% pa
YAU 23% pa
XTA 16% pa
PAF 25.9% pa
FRES 53% pa
ANTO 21.4% pa

The FTSE350 mining sector as a whole has averaged 15% pa over the last 10 years.

Almost impossible to lose money on the better mining stocks over that period if one had resisted the temptation to sell during the 2008 crash.

Plenty of poor performances too, I admit, but largely down at the speculative end of the market - and HMB certainly fits that category (so far!).

But compared to the mining sector, the banks have been awful and I see little to give me any confidence in their future either given their off-balance sheet debt and derivative exposures.

I will just see out this down-cycle on the miners and stick with the hard assets thank you very much :-)
Chip

[pineapple1] 14/2/2013 20:06

Thats fair enough.If its been a success then why not.
Looks to me that banks are set to out perform miners by a country mile.At the end of the day its price that pays and despite whats been written about the imminent insolvency of many banks their share prices are recovering.Don't see many charts moving higher from left to right in the PM mining sector.
Are there any close to their highs.I doubt it.

[chipperfrd] 14/2/2013 16:43

Basically because I have done really well out of investments in miners over the last 10 years. It's really as simple as that.

I find I can make a reasonable job of estimating future cashflows and I only invest in stuff that I can put a value on.

I am not positive about many other sectors and struggle to value many of their business plans.

Given the state of the financial sector, sovereign debt, et al, I am content to stick at what works for me.
Chip

[pineapple1] 14/2/2013 16:32

Chip.....why do you concerntrate on miners. What attract you to the sector.I see far more negatives and i suspect that the difficulties will increase compounded by lower metal prices and higher input costs.
This is worth a read and i like the phrase
Mining is a business that changes your money and their dream into their money and your dream

[chipperfrd] 14/2/2013 16:26

Cheer up a bit. Why all the negative waves :-))

Since then CEY has done well off it's lows and I have had positions from 26.7p upwards. Also bought MML (including today at 310p). Even VGM at 25-27p.

Time will tell. But generally I prefer to buy more of something when it's cheaper than when it's more expensive.
Chip

[1nf3rn0] 14/2/2013 16:15

Lol. Not very often looking at that list.

[chipperfrd] 14/2/2013 15:54

Sometimes it pays off :-)

Start prices as of 18/9/12

EPIC Start Current Diff%
HMB 1.13 2.08 84%
CGNR 1.43 2.38 66%
MWA 4.45 6.70 51%
SRB 7.75 9.63 24%
RMM 29.9 33.50 12%
KYS 30.8 32.75 6%
NGL 2.55 2.58 1%
AAZ 43 41.75 -3%
CGH 26 25.00 -4%
CNR 178 167.00 -6%
MIRL 52.1 48.50 -7%
STI 5.75 5.25 -9%
KEFI 4 3.60 -10%
SGZ 4.13 3.50 -15%
CRND 0.77 0.63 -18%
MML 401.5 318.00 -21%
ORE 0.6 0.46 -23%
OTC 0.66 0.49 -26%
GDP 15.3 11.25 -26%
SHG 29.8 21.50 -28%
BMZ 18.3 12.75 -30%
TGL 12.1 8.38 -31%
CEY 88.7 60.60 -32%
OMI 50 31.63 -37%
AUE 71.8 44.25 -38%
GRL 4.13 2.52 -39%
AGQ 22.8 13.75 -40%
PGD 28.5 16.00 -44%
AVM 93 51.50 -45%
AMA 90 48.00 -47%
VGM 46 23.88 -48%
NYO 5.45 2.63 -52%
TPJ 1.25 0.60 -52%
BGL 12.1 5.13 -58%
MARL 8 3.38 -58%

[pineapple1] 14/2/2013 14:44

Inferno.....yes i ve mentioned the old averaging down strategy here previously along with your self .What some fail to grasp is that you sometimes average down to zero.
Everyone needs a stonking great loss to put them off although some just don't learn from their mistakes...imho

[1nf3rn0] 14/2/2013 14:36

Yes GS not a good day for AVM. And other popular gold miners are also performing terribly. It really is a dog of a sector. Averaging down isn't a strategy that is paying off and its an expensive game to play, especially when there is money to be made elsewhere.

[pineapple1] 14/2/2013 14:04

Is chestnuts 35p still possible as its 12m late

[giant steps] 14/2/2013 13:46

Thanks 1nf3rno, plenty of gold miners suffering today

O/T
Observe AVM down 48%,
oh what troubles they have with the hedge - it's a killer

[1nf3rn0] 14/2/2013 13:43

Without news there's not much to comment on. No surprise that no news correlates with fewer comments. But also no GOOD news gives little incentive to new investors, hence no new posters here either.It remains looking more like a gamble than an investment.

[almost] 14/2/2013 09:53

Hi Chip. Good to see you keeping up the good work and fending off the news-hungry. Also good to see that the number of posts overall has dropped dramatically, with a significant improvement in the quality of comment!

[loppylugs] 13/2/2013 20:02

For better or worse, HMB will look like a very different company in the future - most likely substantially enlarged, probably more comfortable with the local/national regulatory framework and potentially substantially internally funded.
The fact that the new BOD are undertaking a stragegic review and are taking time to determine the best way forward (both long term and short term)and to come up with a coherent business plan, could be seen as positive.

Personally, I would prefer less frequent realistic & truthful updates, rather than frequent disingenuous updates containing largely'hot air'.

Chip - Your assessment of current position; pretty much 'on the money',as usual.

[giant steps] 13/2/2013 12:12

Excellent summary chips, thanks.

[chipperfrd] 13/2/2013 12:08

We know the December quarter was just production from the open pit and therefore something along the lines of 5,000 - 5,500oz is likely. Broadly the same as the previous quarters.

But this company is not about the open pit. That only has a LoM until the end of 2014 without extending it's depth, and the Assaubayev's certainly did not stump up £12m for just the open pit!

The important news here will be some or all of:
- plan for resumption of the underground;
- progress on the Akmola acquisition;
- other satellite deposits;
- possible M&A;
- possible reversal of new assets into HMB, et al.

So largely indeterminate time-lines, especially whilst the winter is still impacting their location.

So 'all in good time' as far as I am concerned.

If there is any price-sensitive event they are required to report it. Until then we wait.
Chip

[chestnuts] 13/2/2013 11:42

Giant

You could also say their is no bad news, as bad news travels faster than good news.

[giant steps] 13/2/2013 11:23

Very disappointed there is no update, guess there is no good news

[chipperfrd] 13/2/2013 11:12

The next report required under the AIM rules will be the half-year financials before the end of March.

They are in a totally different situation now and I think this will be reflected in the nature and frequency of their reporting.

In effect, as they are 60% owned by the Assaubayev family, they can now self fund whatever is deemed to be the most economically effective route forward and will probably not feel the need to assuage the reams of news-hungry PIs as was the case prior to the partial take-over.

They will be required to submit reports when and if there is price-sensitive information, but otherwise I suggest they are unlikely to report purely for information purposes.

I may be wrong on that assessment, but as they are clearly not feeling the need to report the December quarterly, it does look as though current holders will need to adjust to this new reality.
Chip

[chestnuts] 12/2/2013 22:55

If you look at the web site they have not updated any thing not even the contact tel number. this says alot really

[sequoia] 12/2/2013 21:09

Well if they are a month behind,could be an update early March,the first is the most likely being a Friday. Gold is still within the 1650-1700 trend so still watching that.
seq.

[chestnuts] 12/2/2013 17:54

Giant

Most likely the production was that low they will add 2 quarters together just to get into double figures,

Seriosly, when a company as been put into private hands like this they can do what they like, they can bend and twist the rules to suit them selves,

[giant steps] 12/2/2013 16:24

Production update, where is it ?

[dofmeister] 06/2/2013 20:08

Yes, I have left quite a big slug in here just in case - the rest I sold went into EMED, CEY and IFL, which may or not pay off, but all look good.

[sequoia] 06/2/2013 19:22

The best return of investment would be to move the share price up from AIM.to the next level, I think that the share price would have to be something in the region of 15p.
SEQ.