H&t Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 26/10/2017 14:33

Well it looks like the recession has landed. Retail sales fall at fastest rate since March 2009 and axe jobs.

[aleman] 18/10/2017 11:53

The UK employment numbers looked weak this time. Claimant count was up a whisker as last months fall was nearly revised away so the trend there still looks very weakly upwards since Feb 2016. A 5.1% spike in part-time self-employed and a rise in Public Admin and Defence pretty much accounted for all the rise in overall ILO employment which itself looked slightly weaker. PT self-employed hid a lot of unemployment in the last recession according to a couple of documentaries back then - you got slightly better benefits that way. Take out these oddities and you are left with a flat private sector with below-inflation pay increases - a deteriorating trend over the summer which is reinforced by a number of weak corporate trading updates in the consumer sector. It looks like the UK could be going into recession.

[aleman] 16/10/2017 08:14

Have these been tipped somewhere? There's been quite a few buys, including a couple at 359.85p.

[aleman] 13/10/2017 19:16

Unsecured credit defaults amongst banks and building societies rose strongly in Q3 (Table 6). As a result, availability of unsecured credit is shrinking and expected to reach 2008's recessionary levels of shrinkage in Q4. (Table 2)



Those that increasingly can't get unsecured credit from their bank and building society will be getting pushed to alternative lenders.

[therealdeal5] 06/9/2017 21:44

I am not a number, fantasist investor, he is a liar, he makes out he owns stocks but doesn't!

[thorpematt] 04/9/2017 22:43

Well happily those people in their right minds did as I suggested and did not sell at 317p...which leaves that 360p nicely within reach.

I have drawn a red line with a fat crayon on my chart.

Meanwhile the price of Gold continues to rise as the sensible people recognise that WW3 is getting closer.

[spob] 01/9/2017 12:03

Ramsdens Holdings leaps as it says interim and full year pre-tax profits “to be significantly ahead of market expectations”


08:55 01 Sep 2017

The pawnbroker and financial services provider – which listed on AIM in February – said “strong foreign exchange results in the early summer months gained additional momentum through the traditional peak period of July and August"

The Group also said it is benefiting from its jewellery retail initiatives, along with the continued strong gold price

Ramsdens Holdings PLC (LON:RFX) saw its shares top teh market gainers today after the firm said it expects both its interim and full year pre-tax profits “to be significantly ahead of market expectations.”

In a brief trading update, the pawnbroker and financial services provider – which listed on AIM in February – said “strong foreign exchange results in the early summer months gained additional momentum through the traditional peak period of July and August.“

The firm continued: “In addition, the Group is benefiting from its jewellery retail initiatives and these, along with the continued strong gold price, has helped the precious metals buying and pawnbroking segments.”

Peter Kenyon, Ramsdens CEO commented: "We are delighted to report a strong trading period across all the Company's core business segments and in particular a strong peak trading period for foreign exchange.”
Liberum ups target price to 190p

In an initial note to clients, analysts at ‘house’ broker Liberum Capital hiked their target price for Ramsdens’ shares to 190p from 162p and reiterated a ‘buy’ rating on the stock.

In early trading, Ramsdens shares jumped 15%, or 22p higher to 165.5p.

The Liberum analysts said: “Following today’s trading update we have revised our assumptions. This results in a 22% upgrade to Adj. PBT & EPS in FY18 and a 19% uplift in FY19.”

They added: “The upgrade is driven by an improvement in underlying trading and an absence of new store openings in H1'18.

“We are encouraged by the update and see the group as being very well positioned in a market whose competitive dynamics are improving.”

[spob] 01/9/2017 11:28

Ramsdens prof upgrade this morn

profits to be sig higher than market exp

gold price / currency

[aleman] 23/8/2017 22:32

h ttp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/168480/aureus-anni-for-pawnbroker-ht-168480.html

[thorpematt] 23/8/2017 22:05

............as i was saying: "Nicely through that previous ceiling on the chart - seems to have taken forever to get there. Could well fly a little now..."

I have drawn a chart. As we can see (now we're through the red line) there is not much resistance north until 360p. (if you ignore that minor obstacle of 317p...but who in their right minds would be selling at that particular juncture!

As discussed by others HAT has began to complete a tidy transition from its traditional business model to one more aligned with the needs of its modern customer. To this end it is in prime position to benefit with increased returns.

The chart neatly tells this story as we see the fall in share price driven by the uncertainty akin to making such investments and changes. We saw a slow recovery as the company continued to trade succesfully and now we begin to see a more significant re-rating as the market turns from slighty uncertain to positive with regard to HATs prospects.

[therealdeal5] 22/8/2017 07:45

I am not a number, seems you live your life in the pawn brokers but can you afford to buy back?

[aleman] 21/8/2017 19:23

Mid actually got up to 314.25/320 at 9:52 but you would not know it from looking at the ADVFN trades history.

[bookbroker] 21/8/2017 16:16

Should make an offer for Ramsden's, could buy them for cash with the amount of moolah sloshing about on the RFX balance sheet! Give them a good position in the North ands Wales!

[iamnotanumber6] 21/8/2017 15:56

I suspect this has been helped by the tip in Friday's IC by Simon Thompson in a special Bargain Shares feature, giving a fair value of 375p

[thorpematt] 21/8/2017 12:42

Nicely throught that previous ceiling on the chart - seems to have taken forever to get there. Could well fly a little now...

[aleman] 21/8/2017 10:00

Got there now.

[aleman] 21/8/2017 09:57

Actually, ADVFN still a bit behind as mid is now up 316p.

[aleman] 21/8/2017 09:46

Tipped somewhere? (ADVFN not showing the 10p rise in midprice)

[aleman] 18/8/2017 19:22

Zopa's default rates for 2016 and 2017 are now running higher than the 2008 peak. (Why is the stockmarket so late reacting to recessionary trends in credit this time?) This will be sharply pushing up (UK) interest rates for new loans in the market, especially amongst subprime. The rising defaults will tend to act as a drag on profit on the way up but will tend to lead to bumper profits once the recessionary cycle is worked through and defaults fall back before market rates fall again. (Now go check HAT's share price from 160p in 2009 to 390p in 2011.)



Lending Club's graphs of rates charged show the top 3 grades broadly flat over the last decade but D to G have risen markedly in the last 3 years after a few years stable. The histogram of mix also shows D to G dropped from 30% to 20% of loans as higher rates saw lending dry up for those with poorer credit ratings. It is this tightening of credit markets that has been slowing economies. Defaults and interest rates started creeping up in grades B and C since Q1 2016. This is ominous for the (US) economy, given that they make up 65% of originations.

If you look at Lending Club's Q1 2016 issuance for F/G subprime, they are running at a -3.4% return on loans issued at 25% due to exploding defaults. Q2 was -1.3% on loans issued at 26%. Q3 was -0.3% on 27%. Have they now got on top of the trend? Q4 2016 was running at a 6% return on 29% and Q1 2017 at 13% return on 30%. Q2 2017 is running at an estimated 15% return on 30% interest charged.



Now these more recent tranches could still sour a lot more more if the (US) economy tanks, which is looking increasingly likely, but they show how defaults go up, rates rise and lenders can become very profitable once they get on top of it. Lenders lending for shorter periods tend to get on top more quickly. Lenders lending for long periods can strain balance sheets and get into lots of trouble before things get better.

Historic experience is that pawnbrokers see more business for shorter loans and become very profitable more quickly than other lenders but it will vary from company to company, depending on tactics. Some directors get it wrong and defaults sink the company. HAT should have the experience to thrive in this environment as they did last time. We already saw profit rise in personal loans in the results despite the higher impairments. Their interest rates should be adjusting upwards and they should be using this recent experience to be more selective about the greater number of subprime customers coming through the door after being rejected by banks and credit card companies. It is an opportunity if they are careful. Let's hope they take it

[thorpematt] 18/8/2017 14:45

Gold picking up as I suggested it might. I don't think that's the only driver here. There is also a lot of talk of banks reigning in lending to higher risk clients.
There are a number of factors here which make the outlook here pretty bright IMO.

[junior21] 18/8/2017 14:42

Well that was a nice surprise, just opened a small spreadbet on these at lunch as share price was showing good strength on such a down day overall.