H&t Share Discussion Threads

[mikey62] 15/10/2013 15:13

It was a very reassuring statement..a totally different situation to ABM.

[bench2] 15/10/2013 13:14

If this breaks strongly above 150p on decent volume the chartists will get very excited , take a look at the chart above ....

[bench2] 15/10/2013 13:12

Worth reading the trading statement 2 or 3 times . With the gold price below U$ 1300 per oz the trading environment is still very difficult . But unlike ABM they have manageable levels of debt and have considerable flexibility to adjust their pledge book , asset base and retail estate . No reason to buy but this is a survivor and we should wait to see if any directors start to buy stock . We might have seen the lows at 127p !

[dewtrader] 02/10/2013 14:47

to many competitors like wonga taking away business

[bench2] 02/10/2013 11:55

If ABM goes into receivership it will be similar to Comet / Dixons but not quite as positive as traditional pawnbroking still in a mess and too many new competitors , both online and offline .

[grahamite2] 02/10/2013 11:37

The current price of Albemarle rules out the proposed rights issue and the 29.9% shareholder has also indicated it will not be giving support. There is consequently a genuine question mark over its continued existence.

To a large extent this is company-specific and the drop here looks overdone.

[outsizeclothes.com] 02/10/2013 11:17

Abermarle are in much, much deeper doo-doo, and are now in "rescue rights" territory. Anybody for second-hand pawnbroker stores ????
( Of course, if they did completely collapse it would be good news for us.)

[dewtrader] 01/10/2013 23:24

To 50p like rival?

[qvg] 04/9/2013 21:50

thanks. would be good

[outsizeclothes.com] 04/9/2013 20:59

QVG, My analysis is based on my take of gold having bottomed. I believe that their prediction is that it hadn't, and that the interim predictions were "kitchen sinked" to cover such a worst case scenario.
Precious metal investor sentiment has changed in the last 4 weeks. I bought a master box of Viennas from CelticGold.eu @ €18.20 each delivered into the last sell-off. Today they'd cost me €20.20 + delivery. I'm expecting the Company's gold turnover, and profits, to surprize to the upside from that flagged.

[qvg] 27/8/2013 14:06

outsizeclothes,
i question your 9.5m pr-tax figure for 2013. the interim announcement says "profit before tax for H2 13 is likely to be materially below that achieved in H1 13". H1 13 was 4.6m; I understand materially below to mean at least 10%. so at best we are looking at 4.6 + 4.1 = 8.7. worst case, it could be less ...

[outsizeclothes.com] 21/8/2013 21:18

I've re-read the results and I think the bottom has been reached. Doubled up this week, but found it hard to buy anything more than 2k shares in a pop. Surely the market's not that short of stock? I also think gold has bottomed, following the news of 700+ tons leaving London for Asia.
Anyway, my new figures read like this [following the table above format]
[[I'm adding my first "worst case" estimate of May 29 as a comparison.]]

MY MAY ESTIMATE

Year Pledge Stores PSC NetDebt Gold Sales Pre-Tax EPS basic

2013 53.0m 192 30.0m. 27.0m 4.0m. 85.0m. 9.0m. 15p

2012 51.6m 186 28.4m 27.6m 12.0m 129.7m 17.0m 35.92p

2011 46.6m 160 26.7m 29.3m 17.2m 125.5m 23.5m 51.12p
-----------------------------------------------
MY NEW "worst case" estimate, based on gold having bottomed: -

Year Pledge Stores PSC NetDebt Gold Sales Pre-Tax EPS basic

2013 53.0m 193 30.0m. 28.0m 7.0m. 100.0m. 9.5m. 16p

2012 51.6m 186 28.4m 27.6m 12.0m 129.7m 17.0m 35.92p

2011 46.6m 160 26.7m 29.3m 17.2m 125.5m 23.5m 51.12p

I'm also expecting a 4.4p final divvy, making 6.5p, same as 2008/2009.

[rohkap] 14/8/2013 22:40

Disappointing to see these results given all the previous management chat about not being reliant on gold prices, reinvesting gold profits blah blah. Turns out the whole business is massively correlated to gold prices (apart from financial services)!!! Whats worrying is that gold was only £300 approx 7 years ago ie still could a long way to go before it bottoms out completely

Struggle to see why ABM hasnt been clobbered in sympathy. Surely it has the same issues as HAT with a similar sized estate with high reliance on gold selling plus significantly higher net debt and goodwill balances? Looks like an obvious short to me.

Assuming there is no M&A activity, where does HAT bottom out? Looks cheap on balance sheet basis but assuming £3-4mm annualised net income for short term then share price decline may have a while to go before stabilising (current market cap around £47mm). I worry for the divi even at the slashed levels.

They need to put a hold on expansionary capex as they need to get a grip on costs. Saying that, its going to be hard to reduce costs when the estate has been expanded so aggressively over past 6 years. That brings with it high fixed costs -salaries + shop rentals

[ladyfarmer] 14/8/2013 09:16

thanks scotches. might make more sense now or to a payday lender

[scotches] 14/8/2013 09:12

Back in 2009 HAT and ABM discussed a merger.

"Britain's only two stock market-listed pawnbrokers, Albemarle & Bond and H&T, have had initial merger discussions that could result in the UK's largest pawnbroking business, valued at more than £230m."



Though the 230m figure for the combined business would now be a rather more modest HAT 47m + ABM 77m = 124m.

[ladyfarmer] 13/8/2013 16:19

At these levels, any mileage as takeover target? Or for going private?

[scotches] 13/8/2013 11:28

hxxp://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/aug/12/pawnbroker-payday-loans-wonga-rates

"We have taken the view that we are pawnbrokers."

"It is well [publicised] Wonga charges 30%-35% a month. We wouldn't do that. If you ask anybody, people say that is ludicrous," Nichols said. "At our rates it wasn't a profitable proposition for these sort of short-term loans. It was a relatively small part of our business.

[bench2] 12/8/2013 12:37

The 45% int div cut says it all and leaves huge doubts about the 2nd half . With the eps fall of 40% why such a huge cut div ? and why no final div guidance . I was pencilling in EPS of circa 18-19p for the year and if we assume a similar cut in final a total div of 6.52p . Hopefully trough PER 7.8x and yield on cut div of 4.6% . Wait for the short sellers to build .

[altras] 12/8/2013 12:15

Thanks for the quick overview Lennon. I will have a read later...

I was thinking of getting in for a possible 10% bounce. However, there is also the saying about a falling knife!..

[lennonsalive] 12/8/2013 08:54

altras, I looked at it for a short. However, it's linked to gold prices and not really my kind of stock.

A quick look at the results today, you can see they have slashed the dividend as dewtrader pointed out, but they have also debt. If I was looking at this with a long hat on, I would avoid as there are better businesses with less risk than this.

[altras] 12/8/2013 08:46

I'm new to HAT. Came to my attention last week. Haven't done much digging yet. Why the large fall and the massive drop today?

[dewtrader] 12/8/2013 08:40

dividend slashed

[cnx] 10/8/2013 12:41

many thanks, ExV. reflects my thoughts

on the gold trading I imagine they have contracted for or sell their purchases daily. if market is GBP850 they buy for GBP750, making 13%, or they try to make GBP100 on every ounce bought irrespective of price. there should be no risk if they sell daily. the contribution from gold dealing to total profit is then determined by volume traded.

[exv] 09/8/2013 21:05

Did a write-up on HAT here:

hxxp://expectingvalue.com/shares/ht-group-hat

Pretty long, but covers my opinion on most of it. Overall quite positive

@cnx - hopefully it answers some of your questions there!

[cnx] 09/8/2013 20:52

what % of profits and dividends were from gold trading in last two fy years?
hopefully the dividend/profits are covered by established/traditional business and site expansion will continue to provide growth?