Gvc Share Discussion Threads

[crookman] 23/11/2016 13:57

He appears to be moaning on the SCH board, looks like he's long there and that's not working out either!!

[festario] 23/11/2016 13:05

Any one seen Slippery? No? Ha ha ha...

[velod] 22/11/2016 16:38

Believe it when Berenberg say they believe consensus expectations of 5% yoy NGR growth, are too cautious, as in: . . .


. . . . " ... Consensus expectations point to c5% yoy net gaming revenue (NGR) growth, which we believe is on the very cautious side, even taking into account the uneven comparison with the Euro 2016 football championships ... "

. . . . . . . - In the last RNS it was revealed that this 4th quarter was currently seeing 8% growth, daily.

[mnomis] 22/11/2016 16:27

Cheers Gilotron - and just to confirm, this maintains their price target established 20-Sep

[nurdin] 22/11/2016 14:43

Cheers gilotron...very reassuring from Berenberg

[gilotron] 22/11/2016 14:36

berenberg

Subject: GVC - Integration job done, further growth/M&A to come



GVC (Buy; PT GBp 840)


Click here for full report and disclosures




● Yesterday, we hosted a series of group meetings in London with Kenny Alexander, CEO of GVC. We present the key takeaways below.

● Very pleased with 2016 achievements: In the words of Mr Alexander, management “could not be more pleased about the way the business has gone”. Since the integration with bwin.party in February, GVC has managed to successfully address the two key issues of bwin (declining revenues and a cost base out of sync with the business), bringing all of bwin’s labels back to growth (double-digit for sports, mid-single-digit for the other verticals) and cutting the costs of, for example, low ROI marketing expenses and duplicated functions. The migration to a unique platform started in Q3 and will end in Q1-Q2 next year.

● 2017 all about platform integration, delivery of growth and regulation: We feel that the integration story is well understood now, so what is next? In 2017, the company will focus initially on completing the migration to a unique platform and on growing the business. Consensus expectations point to c5% yoy net gaming revenue (NGR) growth, which we believe is on the very cautious side, even taking into account the uneven comparison with the Euro 2016 football championships. The company is currently deriving c55% of revenues from regulated markets, but paying taxes on 71% of its revenue base (VAT in Germany and other EU countries). More countries will regulate in 2017 and onwards, meaning a bigger top-line growth potential but also some pressure on profitability.

● M&A still a realistic option: GVC has grown exponentially in recent years thanks to value-accretive M&A. With the balance sheet reinforcing substantially next year, the company remains committed to further M&A. It seems to be looking mostly at markets in which it still has no or little presence, mainly at sportsbook (the vertical it believes will grow faster than the rest), and has no interest in adding new verticals (social gaming, financial trading, payment processing). While we think M&A is definitely on the agenda for GVC, we struggle to see any significant M&A targets, and if GVC is looking at acquiring some UK-based sportsbook, we think it would wait until the regulatory environment is clearer, ie after the decisions stemming from the Triennial Review on machines and TV advertising. Importantly, it does not plan to pile up cash while waiting for potential M&A, hence its dividend policy will remain generous (at least 50% of free cash flow will be paid in dividends). While structurally the company would rather remain debt-free, it could lever up to a maximum of 3x net debt/EBITDA temporarily if the right acquisition opportunity materialises.

● We think GVC is one of the safest stocks in the gaming space: Counter-intuitively, we think that GVC now offers one of the best profiles among B2C listed companies in terms of regulatory risk, given its relatively low exposure to the UK market (c10% of revenues), and zero presence in the UK-based retail business. The stock trades at c7x EV/EBITDA 2018E (first year of full delivery of merger synergies), 10x P/E and with over 10% FCF yield in the same year. We think it remains a strong pick in the gaming space.

● We value the stock with a DCF method (10% WACC, 2% perpetual growth).

[srpactive] 22/11/2016 12:19

Fest agree, I said last month it always makes me laugh.

[festario] 22/11/2016 12:10

Never a truer word Oohrogerpalmer, (the best name on ADVFN)

[oohrogerpalmer] 22/11/2016 11:59

Probably don't need to filter anyone as the share price increase will do that.
Funny they always disappear when that happens!!!

[gaaston] 22/11/2016 11:55

Thanks for your solid n' sane post, mylands. I imagine Kenneth will strive to reach the status of a FTSE 100 stock, whereupon he may take a day off ~ as the saying goes. I sold a few at 730p and bought back in more recently although the timing wasn't brilliant.

[mylands] 22/11/2016 09:50

Hi all, back from my travels.

Good to see us back at the 650p level after the fall to the low 600's. Didn't think I would see such a pull back, but one thing I have learned over many years, is you can never second guess where the market will take a stock!

Pleased to see others have filtered a certain poster to this thread. Shame it has to come to that, but hey ho it's those of us who have followed this for years who are the ones that are smiling, with a nil cost to their investment due to the huge divs we have received.

A real shame we are saying goodbye to qtrly div payments, having become used to the cash flow benefits of such a regular payout. Still, once the div is re-instated in February and we start getting some good trading statements, like the recent one, we will see this motor once again.

[morph7] 21/11/2016 11:34

Guys I urge you all to just filter the idiot and not reply to any of his drivel. If he is short then I hope he gets wiped out on the next bounce. Just filter him. End of problem.

[sogoesit] 21/11/2016 10:17

No, in fact, I'm not focusing on the Piotroski F-Score.
From most of its prognostications in write-ups it doesn't appear sound.
As pointed out, like a balance sheet date, it takes a snap-shot of a company in historical time.
I'm more interested in a company's future. If debt is the problem it seems to me GVC are dealing with that quite adequately.
Thanks all the same & good luck with your margin debt!

[slipperysidewinder] 21/11/2016 07:51

Investors may be trying to do their homework on shares of GVC Holdings PLC (LSE:GVC). Investors looking for value may be focusing on the Piotroski F-Score. GVC Holdings PLC has a current Piotroski F-Score of 3. The mission of the F-Score is to help spot companies with strengthening balance sheets, and to weed out poor performers. The Piotroski F-Score is named after its developer Joseph Piotroski. The F-Score uses nine different variables based on a company’s financial statement. One point is provided to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong while a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

[ecoover] 20/11/2016 20:17

How many shares ???

[nurdin] 20/11/2016 16:51

I am afraid the tax issues facing all gambling stocks is quite muddied right now and could have an important bearing on the cash flows going forward.As to how much GVC will be affected I have no idea, but I am sure they will not escape unscathed.I do have a decent holding by the way.

[cheshiremoggie] 20/11/2016 16:24

Thanks Slippy, you just illustrated my "dipstick" point beautifully.

CM.

[coppertrader] 20/11/2016 16:00

Slippy,Thanks for the detailed analysis and for explaining your rational for being short on gvc. The arguments have convinced me to sell all my holdings first thing in the morning (sic).

[slipperysidewinder] 20/11/2016 15:20

WONGA

LMAO

[cheshiremoggie] 20/11/2016 14:56

jfishy55,

"Yes, you like to say that, yet you have never had a discussion about possible negatives (or positives for that matter) "

Again, check my replies to Slippy just a short while ago...

[oohrogerpalmer] 20/11/2016 14:53

I used to wonder why we had wars and half the world was in a mess , then i started reading these bulletin boards a few years ago and now i know why !!!!!
Yet another thread degenerated into a slanging match .

[cheshiremoggie] 20/11/2016 14:52

The btw.. post wasnt actually referring you at all anyway - please read the Slippy posts and replies.

btw... I've been posting here since 2010 or so - somewhere there must be a useful post to someone?

CM.

[cheshiremoggie] 20/11/2016 14:50

jfishy55,

Sorry we seem to have crossed wires here - I didnt mean to refer to you as a dipstick - your posts have all been entirely reasonable.

Slippy is IMHO, the "dipstick". Not you in any way.

I'm always happy to discuss possible downsides with any of the shares I hold - it (as I said) can lead to me learning some new stuff.

There has been a large drop in the share price and it is a concern as it is possible there is an underlying problem with the business.

Personally I think that the dividend for 2017 will be around 26c which will be a yield of 3-3.5% at current share price I think the market see that as reasonable given current market uncertainty and is not building in much of an upside in integration or growth.

Once again - Occasionally I can be one but you are certainly not seem by me as a dipstick!

CM.