Gvc Share Discussion Threads

[velod] 13/11/2016 21:37

. . . And so it came to pass in the land of the GVC, on the morn’ of Monday November 14th, a day that would see the launch of the giant super moon - a portent of the almighty D-Day of all battles yet to be fought, a battle that was to commence at 8:00am sharp, that Frodo, Sam and Bilbo Baggins finally - finally, found themselves at the foot of the mighty Wall of the 600.

. . . There had been many a setback on their adventures but now their final destination was in sight. Now was the culmination of all their trials and tribulations. The ultimate hour was at hand. Frodo had the book of Kells containing the incantation spell from Gandalf safely under his arm protected by the ring, ready to activate the giant Wall of 600 into life.

. . . The Orcs and bears were led by the evil Saruman who desired entry past the mighty Wall of 600 above all else. The runes, stones and readings were all in his, and the Orcs favour. Today they would sweep all before them, destroying the mighty Wall of 600 forever and gain access to untold riches beyond the dreams of avarice. They wanted the Wall of 600 so much they could sense its presence. They could feel it. They could see it. They wanted it. Badly. It was theirs for the taking.

. . . As the morning sun rose over the land of the GVC, the mighty, terrifying Orcs and bears, let out a horrifying roar, and a fearsome sight to behold, began the rampaging charge across the battlefield destroying all before them. Saruman purred. He’d planned the attack to perfection. But first he had to destroy that incantation in the Book of Kells.

. . . Meanwhile Frodo hurriedly fumbled to open the book of Kells as Sam and Bilbo battled the Orcs and bears to give him time to invoke the incantation. Finally Frodo had the book open with the Orcs and bears closing in, barely an arm's length away.

. . . He turned his back on the melee and read aloud Gandalf’s incantation directly to the Wall of 600.

. . . As Frodo spoke it was Gandalf’s voice that filled the air with: “- Over 3% fall on Thursday. Just half a percent fall on Friday and another 25p reduction on Monday just to reach the Wall of the 600 - let alone break past it? Why that would require a huge one day retrace on Monday of 4% alone. So all told almost an 8% decline over 3 trading days? - Just to reach the Wall of 600? I don’t think so! - not without a profit warning, or some financial irregularity being exposed. There is none. Not a cat in hell’s chance of breaking the Wall of 600 on Monday. Not a chance. It ends here. Access past the Wall of 600 denied. Wall of 600 do your stuff!"

. . . And with that, Tibetan Monks up on mountains high, blew into enormous long trumpet-horns so large that one end lay on the ground. The ground reverberated with the powerful bass booming roar from the trumpet-horns that stopped all in the battle below. Orcs and bears held their bleeding ears as the low bass boomed and vibrated through their bones. Bahoooohmmm! Bahooooooommm!

. . . Stone and rubble was disturbed from the high tops of the Wall of 600 sending the Orcs and bears scurrying for cover. The falling debris began to reveal three huge engraved words chisled high upon the wall. And the wall began to speak the three simple words that all eyes now gazed upon.

. . . Later that day Frodo mused on how the wall’s loud voice with its deep booming bass was exactly just like the voiceover in Hollywood movie trailers advertising the latest release. Whatever, the Wall of 600 had held the day as the Orcs, bears, and Saruman ran from the battlefield in fear for their lives as the Wall’s booming voice echoed deeply over and over into their very souls as it burned in their ears:
. . . NONE SHALL PASS!
. . . NONE SHALL PASS!

. . . And that was the refrain Frodo, Sam, and Bilbo Baggins, sang all the way home, back to the shire.

[deadend] 13/11/2016 18:20

Another filtered,where do they crawl from?

[lw425] 13/11/2016 16:46

reason for share price weakness is probably strength of sterling against euro

now 1.16, not the 1.09 not long ago. lots still short sterling so expect a squeeze and sterling to hit 1.32/$ and 1.22 euro

shorters only need an excuse to drive gvc down and they will

same with pays

if 616p goes at the close then could fall as low as 528p if markets correct & sterling rallies

might not matter in medium term but can cause much pain over next 6 weeks

reverse is true of course if sterling weakens

tate similar situation with most revenues being US dollar based.

[garycook] 13/11/2016 13:23

I,ll take a nice rebound in GVC in exchange !!!

[velod] 13/11/2016 10:56

In weekend financial roundup's

. . . The £pound was the best performing of ALL the world's currencies last week.

. . . Makes a nice change :)

. . . Small victories - but hey, I'll take it.

[melody9999] 13/11/2016 10:09

jfishy55 filtered pending his removal of post 23677. Either a genuine error or I do not want to read posters who just write untruths.

[melody9999] 13/11/2016 10:05

This is a direct cut from the trading statement 3/11.

Trading

-- Pro forma Group daily NGR for the quarter ended 30 September 2016 increased 12% on the previous year (+15% in constant currency)

-- Sports gross win margin was 10.5% in Q3 (9.3% Q3 2015), with daily amounts wagered 3% higher year-on-year (+5% in constant currency)

-- Games/other daily NGR also showed good growth over the same period in 2015, +12% (+15% constant currency)

[investmentguru] 13/11/2016 10:00

Are you sure you're looking at the right company, Jfishy? Not a great attempt at deramping on your part, you must try harder...

[jfishy55] 13/11/2016 09:00

Dividend will be 50% of FCF. The best figure I can come up with is 70m ish from a few months back. 50% is 35m which is about 12c per share - around a 1.5% yield.

Can anyone come up with a better figure for FCF going forward?

The bad trading statement is also a concern. Need to see that decline in NGR reversed sharpish, bad for sentiment and will also impact FCF.

[garycook] 13/11/2016 03:01

Shares Magazine article bases full year dividend at 39.5 Euro cents per share or 34p,which equates at present to a 5.4% yield on 625.But with the share price due to maybe correct to around the 750 level.That still gives GVC a 4.5% yield if the GBP/Euro stays around 116.But until GVC declares all dividend for 2017.It is only predictions atm.

[fizzypop] 12/11/2016 19:06

A bit premature I know but at the current exchange rate of 1 Euro = £0.86 the special divi of 10 Euro cents equates to a 1.4% yield.

[velod] 12/11/2016 18:29

Tidying emails and found this article on GVC in Shares mag (free every week from one of the broker's I use) it's from Nov 3rd but I post it not because it discloses anything new - it doesn't, or comments on the recent share price retrace - it doesn't, or for the reiteration of their view of GVC's "underlying strong cashflow" BUT because it calculates the Divi in their view for the coming year as 5.1%
. Niccce :) Ahh say again - niccccce!!!!! :)

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Sports betting and gaming group GVC (GVC) is returning to the dividend list ahead of schedule with a €10 cents per share special payout scheduled for February.

The online gambling play also cheers with news it will recommence paying a progressive dividend, returning 50% of free cash flow, from 2017 onwards.

Shares in the e-gaming operator, which has grown through acquisitions from an AIM-listed small cap into a FTSE 250-listed gaming behemoth, are bid up a further 7p (1%) to 693p on news of the impending special payout in respect of the 2016 financial year and the promise of a rising stream of ordinary payouts to follow.

DIVIDEND SURPRISE

GVC is now a major player in a consolidating industry, having acquired underperforming rival Bwin.party in February this year. The Isle of Man-headquartered group's brands include Sportingbet, Partypoker, Foxy Bingo and CasinoClub.

Under the terms of a €400m (£356.4m) loan provided by Cerberus Business Finance to help finance the audacious reverse takeover of bwin.party, GVC 'agreed to take a dividend payment holiday in 2016'. However, following a refinancing with Nomura, GVC is in a position to pay off the €386.5m balance of the Cerberus loan before 2 February and business remains brisk with underying cash flow strong.

This means GVC is able to fund the special dividend and plans to distribute 50% of its free cash flow beginning in 2017. The betting operator, a retail investor favourite, says it will also return any surplus cash to shareholders through buybacks and/or special dividends.

'As we did following the Sportingbet acquisition,' comments CEO Kenneth Alexander, 'through the rapid integration of bwin.party and a solid trading performance, GVC expects to recommence the payment of dividends ahead of schedule. Our shareholders have been highly supportive and it is pleasing to be able to reward them with a dividend sooner than we had originally anticipated.'

WINNING RUN

GVC also updates investors on strong third quarter trading, reporting 12% year-on-year growth in daily net gaming revenue (NGR) to €221.5m, 3% year-on-year growth in daily amounts wagered as well as a sports gross win margin of 10.5% in Q3, up from 9.3% a year ago.

Alexander flags a positive start to Q4 trading, with daily NGR up 8% in the period to 31 October, good going given tougher comparatives. Last year's fourth quarter was the standout period of 2015, while this year's third quarter was boosted as punters rushed to place bets on the Euro 2016 football tournament.

GVC Holdings - NOV 2016Cenkos Securities leaves its 2016 forecasts unchanged, looking for a leap in pre-tax profits from €46.7m to €104.2m, yet notes 'clearly the risk is on the upside given the strong top-line momentum. We have conservatively left our 2017-19E forecasts unchanged reflecting ongoing potential regulatory and taxation headwinds.'

Based on the €39.5 cents per share or 35.2p dividend forecast for 2017, including the special dividend, GVC is a compelling income stock, offering a bumper yield of 5.1%.

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[coxsmn] 12/11/2016 18:01

GVC covered in this weeks IC and rated a buy.

Also below some analysis of GVC vs 888 forecast for 2017,

888 profit £47.38m, revenue £419m, profit margin 11.3%, p/e 15.4

GVC profit £148.42m, revenue £799m, profit margin 18.6%, p/e 12.3

GVC has 65% higher profit margin along with major advantage of economy of scale, fantastic products including sportsbook and unique blend of operations in multiple markets, mostly outside of UK.

If GVC were on the same p/e as 888 then the share price would br £7.80 not £6.24. Futhermore GVC deserves a premium to its peers.

Kenny has a clear plan to list in the ftse 100 and i'm looking forward to the next leg of the journey.

dyor.
coxsmn

[morph7] 12/11/2016 17:48

I think so Festario. GVC has been very kind to us in the past.

[festario] 12/11/2016 17:04

Morph, you will be rewarded many times over.

[morph7] 12/11/2016 14:59

Nice post above.

Yes it was tongue in cheek just for the record.

That's the problem today as you mentioned in your last post about the mass of data available. People get lost in the plethora of available tools at their disposal.

For me, and I have doubled the value of my SIPP in the last 24 months, is to keep it simple. Market timing et al is nigh on impossible. Follow a small number of shares, and then make an entrance when you deem fit.

Edit: Purchase was 8650 shares on Friday. Will buy more at decent opportunities.

Gl all

[velod] 12/11/2016 14:02

But Morph, aren't you at least fascinated in why there's panic selling in GVC at the moment (as that is what oversold is; panic selling) in what is otherwise an out and out, good investment opportunity?

. . And more to the point, at least interested in trying to fathom an opinion, in my case from the mass of available data detailing the actions of investors of the likelyhood of some safe harbour appearing out of the storm indicating as to when the panic selling might abate?

Different people will choose different methods to form that opinion. There is no right, no wrong, just differing opinions to achieve an end result satisfactory to all - or most all.

. . . Edit. PS. Do hope your admission of reading on the toilet is a tongue in cheek figure of speech only. If not, you have a serious health problem as a normal person with healthy bowel movements won't have time to read - they'll have made their ahem 'deposit' and left while you're still straining inbetween turning pages :) :) :)

. . . ......P.P.S. Just Googled medical research and one of the cancer associations research shows reading on the toilet is widespread and apparantly harmless (apart from the danger of unpleasant microbes being transferred to the reading material). So I stand corrected. But they do reveal that toilet-readers tend to suffer more from haemorrhoids than non-toilet readers but that it was a negligible difference.

[morph7] 12/11/2016 11:07

Sorry velo but all that chart business I can't be bothered with. Cash is king. Keep it simple stupid. People make me laugh with rsi this, bollenger that. Here is the Morph investment checklist:1 company makes decent cash for its size and niche2 company does not over borrow more cash3 good leadershipI could put another 20 points but I think you get the idea. So many people get carried away with TA. Love reading their ideas when I'm sat on the toilet.

[coxsmn] 12/11/2016 10:35

Festario, agreed, excellent buying opportunity here. GVC is a truly stellar company, much better profit margins than peers equals larger dividends and special dividends for shareholders.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/03/sportingbet-owner-gvc-pays-out-27m-shareholder-jackpot/dyor.coxsmn

[fizzypop] 11/11/2016 17:06

Hi Morph......welcome back