Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[jsg123] 12/8/2024 13:50

You've had plenty of opportunity to get in 16s, all my top ups last week were 16.80 ish

[bloomberg2] 12/8/2024 11:38

Hopefully go lower! Been watching from the sidelines!! Seller clearing out tr1 should give us a clue!! Strange trading pattern last few sessions!! 16s and I'm in

[hpcg] 11/8/2024 13:25

Golden has already linked it here. I disagree about the warrants, I am pretty sure they will be exercised. That's been my assumption since they were alloted by default. However it was well worth a re-read because I did not realise (the prospectus on the capital raise is long) the they vest if and when the debt is replaced. As we know this will be 2024 my position on capital returns, which should not be this calendar year anyway changes. These should now be a small dividend, because some investors will only invest if there is a dividend, with the vast majority returned by share buy backs when the share price is below NAV.

[bloomberg2] 11/8/2024 08:20

https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/07/17/north-sea-operators-face-investigation-over-well-decommissioning-delays/

[bloomberg2] 11/8/2024 07:36

https://goldenhorn.substack.com/p/gulf-marine-services-plc-gmsl

[hpcg] 10/8/2024 17:36

They'll sell them. I'll sell my shares at some point. All the shares on the register are for sale. I'm obviously not selling now because they are worth much more than NAV given what NAV can generate.

[bloomberg2] 10/8/2024 13:50

https://www.seafox.com/en/news/Press-releases/ANNOUNCEMENT-Seafox-International-Limited-Seafox/e/pm/10/#:~:text=We%20are%20in%20the%20business,dividends%2C%20over%20the%20same%20period.

[bloomberg2] 10/8/2024 13:24

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/979febba-a062-5c65-9ac6-a414806bc533

[bloomberg2] 10/8/2024 13:19

Interesting!! Come very close yesterday on a taking a punt on this one !! Sea fox still huge stake to unwind ! Wonder what there plans are with remaining holding

[hpcg] 10/8/2024 12:08

Simon Thompson in the IC broke down the Zeue note. Interim dividend next year circa 1-1.5p based on the 20-30% payout ratio and in the first instance all the payout in dividends*. Average day rates are now $33,200 10% up on 2023, with estimated revenue of $168mn this year. Debt estimates $212mn end 2024 and $142mn end 2025.

*IMO all returns prior to the warrant exercise deadline should be in dividends. Thereafter predominantly share buy backs.

[bloomberg2] 05/8/2024 07:15

Paul Scott added last week!! Seafox still hold 23.7 %

[hpcg] 02/8/2024 13:35

As I said in post 2423 just a week ago the Endeavour is already engaged in windfarms. It has been around the coast of Northern Europe installing for years. There are more specialist rigs on the market now for installing the monopile but it will be useful for years with its heavy lift crane dealing with blade installation and replacement.

[hatfullofsky] 02/8/2024 12:25

Looks like they're already there. Gulf Marine Services, a leading provider of self-propelled and self-elevating support vessels for the offshore oil, gas and renewables sectors

[hpcg] 01/8/2024 11:25

catsick - right, I very much agree with what you wrote. I wasn't aware there were cold stacked straight out the dockyard platforms. Yes anything that can be purchased at a good prospective yield makes sense. Mobilisation of those units will be expensive though.

[catsick] 01/8/2024 11:18

There won't be any new builds, current prices are way below replacement value, I guess they might be interested to pick up cheap assets that are for sale, eg there are some vessels that have been built but the buyers were unable to buy that have been sat unused for years in the shipyard, these will be available to buy at deep discount, nobody is going to place a new order for a rig of this type probably ever again given there is no point buying a 40 year life asset in an industry people think will be gone in 20, this is a kind of a moat, if they want to expand the fleet it will be from the existing universe of vessels, given they yield 20% at the moment it makes sense given the debt is now under control, although buybacks would probably be better

[hpcg] 01/8/2024 11:15

If any return to shareholders before the exercise of the warrants they should be made as dividends. Warrant holders do not participate in dividends but they do get the benefit of buy backs. The latest dates for the warrants to have been exercised is 30 June 2025. After that date, and whether or not any warrants are issued, then part of the mix should be share buybacks mechanically applied versus NAV - a full program below NAV, a partial program up to 10% above NAV and nothing at 20% above NAV or similar.

[blusteradjuster] 01/8/2024 10:26

Enterprise value is currently approx GBP400m.

5.1 - 5.6 x forecast 2024 adjusted EBITDA.

While that ratio is below 8, I'd prefer buyback to dividends.


"GMS Board has also approved a dividend policy dedicating 20%-30% of annual adjusted net profit towards distributions to shareholders in the forms of dividends and potentially share buyback provided all bank covenants are met and other plans permit."

[someuwin] 01/8/2024 10:24

Panmure Liberum

New US$300m banking arrangements and a dividend policy

GMS has announced revised US$300m banking arrangements with three banks resulting in reduced interest rates of 250bp +EIBOR, (down from 300bp +SOFR) which will fall to 225bp +EIBOR when the net leverage falls to 2x. The facility also removes ‘most’ restrictions on dividends and share buybacks with GMS confirming it will pay 20%-30% of annual Adj. net profit to shareholders. We have assumed it will pay a dividend on the full year results of 2025 of 0.9p, implying a dividend yield of over 5%. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 28p as the favourable macro-outlook and improved visibility sees GMS heading into 2H 2024 and beyond in its strongest position for years.

...

The target price is based on the ‘net realisable value’ which we have defined as the net book value of the fleet less net debt, divided by the fully diluted number of shares. Using our assumptions for the net book value of the fleet at December 2024 which benefited from an impairment reversal of US$33m in 2023 (another indicator of the improved outlook for the sector) and our estimate of net debt at December 2024, it implies a value of 28p representing upside of c70%. As a sense check to justify the new target price, the resulting price-to-book ratio would still be only 1.0x illustrating that GMS still offers significant upside.

[hpcg] 01/8/2024 09:28

I'm happy with investment if it is from existing fleets. I am very cautious on new builds.

[tourist2020] 01/8/2024 09:21

My financial models predict (prudently, I believe) average debt in 2025 of $200m with total finance cost of 7,5% giving interest expense of $15m v´s some $30m in 2023. That`s around 1,5c per share reduction, and ongoing.

Personally I would prefer that they invest in revenue growth than pay dividents. Current utilization can`t be significantly improved and we cant expect prices to rise indefinitely.

[hpcg] 01/8/2024 08:40

Spot EIBOR today is 5.034%
Spot SOFR, yesterday 5.33%

I don't know if the debts are priced off spot, 3 month or 1 year, but the curves are similar. There will be a cost to hedging, and in as much as there will be some costs in the local currency I don't think they should hedge it all.




The September rate cut will knock 25bp off the debt payments prior to the transaction closing.

[pastybap] 01/8/2024 07:26

"The loan will have a tenor of five years". Sing it loud!

[blusteradjuster] 01/8/2024 07:12

Today they state:

"As we have made an early settlement towards our debt last week, our current net debt is USD 234 million, down from USD 267.3 million as of December 31st, 2023.


On 13th May they stated:

"The Company is also pleased to report that it made an additional prepayment of USD 5.0 million towards its debt repayments in the last week, reducing net debt to USD 250.4 million."


A reported 16.4m reduction in 80 days.