Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[wigwammer] 12/3/2024 13:52

And I suspect post inflation, it would cost rather more than the current total asset figure to replicate the fleet today. ATB

[wigwammer] 12/3/2024 13:49

I suspect it tells you rather a lot about the cost of entry. If you want to compete with GMS by building a comparable fleet - the book value plus net debt is round about the cost. Far cheaper to buy GMS at a material discount to book than the organic alternative.

[bmw30csl] 12/3/2024 09:53

Asset value is a pure accounting number unless you are trying to sell them which usually only happens when they are not in demand anyway. Rates and subsequent cash flow are what matter.

[catsick] 12/3/2024 04:27

The vessels have a purchase cost of 967 usd, in 2019 and 2020 they took substantial impairments in the accounts, they now have a holding value of 592m usd , the vessels probably have a 40 year life but depreciation is over20-25 years, there will definitely be a removal of some impairments in 2023 and 2024 accounts so nav is likely to be 30p as of now and rising....

[baddeal] 11/3/2024 23:16

Good to see today's news esp re rates. More to come here I think

[hpcg] 11/3/2024 15:27

catsick - r.e. 2280. I've had asset value down as a hump point for share turnover for a long time. Traditional value investors might see the discount unwind as a reason to leave. I have them slated to be replaced by income seekers with likely a modest debt free PE. This is a while off though. In the mean time any write-downs, which if I remember correctly where not very large, should be written back.

[catsick] 11/3/2024 10:37

Another zeus report out covering today's announcement, seems like the company dont want them to reverse out the obviously much higher day rate ... if it really is 60k then these shares are worth 50p

[catsick] 11/3/2024 08:03

The latest zeus research report predicts day rates for e class in the middle east at 39k for 2025 from 34k in 2023 so these new rates are way higher

[premium beeks] 11/3/2024 07:54

Very nice. The chart staying nicely in the uptrend and expect to see these through 20p very soon.

[catsick] 11/3/2024 07:52

Interesting to see that the new contract increases the backlog by 90m usd from that reported on 28th feb , which looks like a daily rate of around 60k over the 4 years which indicates the day rates are substantially higher to lock in a rig long term in a market now tight and where it's unlikely any new rigs are ever built again of this type ... all this increase goes right to the bottom line, they are fully contracted now to pay off all debt easily, these shares should be trading above the fast increasing nav and the massive write downs in right now valuation sshould be reversed soon further increasing nav ...

[hpcg] 10/3/2024 12:32

Brief audio note from Zeus Capital. They note 2025 forecast moved forward to 2024 and have a 25p price target.

[premium beeks] 07/3/2024 12:24

Added today

[thebd11] 28/2/2024 20:36

167.7 rev 98.8 EBITDA 52 adj PBT 4.1c EPS All figures in USDm

[hpcg] 28/2/2024 19:17

At one point in 2022 I started to map out contracts per rig but that was too much work when the revenue and share price started moving anyway (with some named some not it was logic puzzle). I would think 2024 must be near enough booked, at least in the Gulf.

[elsa7878] 28/2/2024 18:50

24E sales up 3%, EBITDA up 5% and both adj. PBT and EPS up 11%.

Do you have the figures. What is the forecast eps?

Thanks

[baddeal] 28/2/2024 17:30

Yep, more to come here imo provided the market stays strong. Looking forward to move up towards 30p over 12 months or so.

[hpcg] 28/2/2024 13:38

thebd11 - I guess they don't see the need yet, wait for some actuals. To me 2025 must be upgraded. These new contracts increase revenue whilst 2024 debt repayment should be higher so exiting interest payments lower thus interest for 2025 considerably lower.

[thebd11] 28/2/2024 11:57

Zeus note out updating numbers slightly on the back of today's RNS. 24E sales up 3%, EBITDA up 5% and both adj. PBT and EPS up 11%. Note that with today's updated guidance 2025 target EBITDA is at the same level as revised 24 EBITDA. seems to me to speak to upgrade potential for 25 numbers?

[hpcg] 28/2/2024 10:04

I have bought several times on the way up, and added another spread bet this morning. I think in the range 30-32p rather than 28-30p come the end of 2024. Rates are still in the sweet spot of decent revenues but not anywhere close to justify new building.

Its going to be slower moving than we have seen, about a penny per month, and perhaps people see more explosive opportunities, but 60% over 10 months is fine by me. After 2024 results the balance sheet will look safe, and come 2025 the 5 year track record will be clean. These and dividends and or buybacks will attract a different kind of investor.

[blusteradjuster] 28/2/2024 09:53

The trading update of November 6th 2023 expected net-leverage-ratio (NLR):

end-2003: 3.2-3.3:1

end-2024: 2.3-2.7:1

The announcement this morning has end-2023 net debt at $268m ("of which US$ 107 million were repaid in the last two years") and 2024 EBITDA upgraded to $92 - $100m.

Doesn't seem hard to expect the NLR to end 2024 nearer 2:1 than the middle of the 2.3-2.7 range previously guided.




"We now expect to end 2023 with a Net Leverage Ratio(*) in the range of 3.2 to 3.3:1."

"For 2024, we expect to reach by year end a Net Leverage Ratio(*) in the range of 2.3 to 2.7:1."

[premium beeks] 28/2/2024 09:15

Weakness to be added on here, not sold!I'm sure you are doing the same hp.

[hpcg] 28/2/2024 09:11

Did someone get wind of and RNS and thought, better sell, just in case? I am truly perplexed by the panics when the company has enough revenue visibility in the bag to be able to guide the second year results, never mind the current year. The upward revision means rates are up again and the likely means 2025 will need to be revised upward. This is one of the easiest shares I have ever invested in.

[premium beeks] 28/2/2024 08:39

Nice update and contract extension!

[premium beeks] 26/2/2024 14:54

Looks to be on the turn again.Yes, disappointing it's back tested the trend line but looks to be back on track.

[wigwammer] 26/2/2024 08:12

The biggest mistake investors have made over the last 12 months is evidently not owning more 12 months ago.