Bought another 100k today.Seems a decent point to top up. |
hpcg - appreciate there was an update on 18th Dec but, whilst good indicator of how the financial year has gone that is not the full final year picture. We will get that in the next few weeks, as well as an update on the first quarters trading for 2025. |
thanks hpcg.. will take a look |
Some information that may have passed people by - it had me. There is a 29 January 25 investor presentation on the website: I can tell from the 60% EBITDA margin that catsick has read it!
It is well worth a read. In particular "NOC based opex, including well and platform maintenance and enhanced oil Recovery – c.50-70% of revenue"
I think investors tend to associate the company, possibly all oil services, with new development, when looking after what is already there is where a large proportion of the work is. |
thebd11 - according to the prospectus the warrants were entitled to pro-rata adjustments for any buy back or dividend.
Also, to our knowledge the warrants haven't been converted yet as they were still listed as indirect voting rights in the BoA / Meryll Lynch TR-1, and we haven't had the issue RNS from the company. However I realise you are much closer to these things so a) it may now have happened or b) you might just be fast forwarding to June as we are almost there and the company has no need to actually implement anything between now and post the final conversion date.
Thank you for all your contributions with respect to your dialogue with management, and other shareholders! |
Would expect management to be over in perhaps late April (we saw Alex and Mansour on April 25th last year) and that's certainly one of the questions high on my radar for when we meet. Now that all the warrants have been exercised into shares the divvy / buybacks discussion becomes more straightforward (as the warrants weren't entitled to dividends when they were un-exercised). I guess it comes down to the debt and where that stands, as they've indicated before, but longer contracts at higher levels certainly are never a bad thing for visibility and forecasting. Especially if you think of both divvys and new fleet investments as long term capital commitments. I suppose buybacks have the advantage of being more 'ad hoc' in nature. Will, as ever, report back! |
Yes under 20p buybacks much more sensible, over 25p probably divs make more sense |
catsick - The north sea unit is deployed on windfarms, and a lot of North Sea it too deep, apart from the Southern Gas Basin.
Quick Thinker - we have had the FY trading update (17 Dec), it is the actual results that will be released sometime in the next few weeks. We'll see if this gets revised, "For 2025, GMS expects adjusted EBITDA to reach USD 100-108 million".
The increased backlog means the company can comfortably start paying out to investors. IMO this should be mostly buybacks and a modest quarterly dividend, something the predictability of the backlog allows. Assuming the gap of the share price to book reduces over time the balance can shift towards dividends. I do realise some people don't invest in shares that don't pay dividends. |
According to Beeks' GROK summary, revenue is expected to be $164m for 2024.
Backlog is up $75m from an RNS released 51 days (about 1/7 of a year) ago.
Rough pro-rata ($164 / 7 = $23m) of backlog rundown in that period suggests the new contract is for 23 + 75 = $98m. |
It's a crazy valuation, they make more than 60% ebita margin on current day rates, a 550m backlog over 3 years guarantees all debt paid off and half the market cap extra for fat fat dividends and thats just the current largest ever backlog, just in the norrth sea there is 40 billion of decommissioning work to be done ... |
Trading update for final year must be due in the next 2-3 weeks (last year was 4th April). We will have a much better feel for where the businesses at then. I expect strong set of results with debt continuing to reduce at pace, strong cash generation and a strong order book. It will also be interesting to see if they announce what they wish to do with the cash being generated and whether they want to introduce a dividend, as has been mooted, or expand their fleet of vessels. |
I spotted this in the FT a couple of days ago, hope the link works despite firewall.
Basically there are a ton of expired-use rigs (700 in the Gulf) which according to international agreements need to be decommissioned by 2030. Looks to me like a good potential source of demand for GMS services. |
Consistent debt reduction, backlog growth, good communications and a company with a plan and executing it.Lots to like. |
Are holders / potential sellers finally going to get the message that this is one of the safest places to park their money, trade war or not? What is on offer is getting chewed through, but for the price to rise we need those marginal sellers to hang on for a much higher price. |
Indeed lovely news. Backlog has increased by $75m over the last two months since the Jan 21st announcement. Very good to see. |
3 year extensions and backlog increase.All underlines the investment case here. |
Opec+ is ramping up production and is looking to take market share back from US shale. Gulf producers make huge profits in the 50-60 range but for 50% of onshore US wells that is loss making. Now nothing can stand in the way of sellers who want to push the button now and ask questions later, but they aren't taking an evidence based approach. |
 Whilst we await events, here's how GROK sees GMS.
GMS has shown a remarkable recovery since its debt-heavy days in 2020. The company provides vessels for offshore maintenance, well intervention, and wind turbine installation, primarily in the Middle East and Europe. Its financial performance has improved significantly, driven by high demand for SESVs amid a tight supply market. Revenue for 2024 (based on estimates and trailing data) is projected around $164 million, up from $133.2 million in 2022, with adjusted EBITDA likely exceeding $80 million, reflecting strong utilization rates (around 90%) and rising day rates. Net debt has dropped from $406 million in 2020 to an estimated $160 million by year-end 2025, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 1.5x—well below covenant thresholds. This deleveraging has restored lender confidence, shifting focus to potential dividends or fleet expansion.
The stock price, however, tells a volatile story. Trading at around 15-20p recently (down from a 52-week high of 24.6p), GMS has a market cap of roughly £169-200 million. It’s considered undervalued by some analysts, with Panmure Liberum issuing a 30p target in late 2024, citing a free cash flow yield over 20%. Yet, momentum has stalled—Q3 2024 updates showed softening oil and gas demand, and X posts in early March 2025 highlight a dip after mixed results, with some users calling it a “bargain”; at 15p, others wary of macroeconomic risks.
The upside case is compelling: a robust backlog (3x FY25 revenue), high vessel demand in the Gulf (unaffected by UK economic woes), and a cleaned-up balance sheet. If oil prices stabilize or OPEC+ ramps up production, GMS could see even higher utilization. The renewables segment, though smaller, adds diversification. However, risks loom—steel price volatility could hit margins, and the fleet’s age (some vessels over 15 years) means replacement capex ($20-25 million annually) could strain cash flows once debt repayment slows. Finance costs ($24 million estimated for 2024) won’t vanish soon, and a global slowdown could dent demand.
For a long-term investor, GMS looks promising if bought near current lows—its tangible asset base (book value likely boosted by impairment writebacks in 2024-25) and cash generation suggest upside to 25-30p within 12-18 months, assuming no major downturn. Short-term, it’s riskier: sentiment is shaky, and the stock could test 14p before rebounding. It’s a high-beta play—great if you’re bullish on energy markets, less so if you’re cautious.
Is it “good” for you? If you’re risk-tolerant and seeking value, yes—it’s cheap for a reason but has catalysts. If you prefer stability, maybe not—volatility and sector headwinds could bite. Want me to crunch more numbers or compare it to peers? |
>>They may have been below 3% ...>>
I read that Merrill Lynch were on 1.95% last month but can't find the link now. |
They may have been below 3% and have since bought the remainder to go above a notifiable level? Or someone in compliance may have been through the books and determined the warrants are voting rights? |
I think company will buy them and cancel |
That looks to be an initial announcement though. Maybe some horse trading in the background? |
thebd11 had already informed us the BoA owned a chunk of warrants and were intending to hold them as shares over the long term. Of course we don't know for how long or whether they might change their mind, as all shareholders have the right to do at any time. |
Interesting, last half yearly report has 53m warrants outstanding. |
BOA, on my read, have taken up voting rights "indirectly attached to shares" .... some 82.5 million.
Looks like the warrants to me, either for or their own book or for subsequent distribution/sale.
There is no way they picked up 82.5 million shares in the open market with recent trading volumes. |
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