Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 23/12/2016 10:01

Che7win - I'm interested in GMS but concerned over gearing levels.

Would appreciate sight of any notes you are in a position to share please...attempting to work out the net debt position as they turn off the tap on their capital spend & get a feel for forecast utilisation rates.

Many thanks in advance.

Kind regards,
GHF



EDIT - Many thanks for responding. You have mail.

[che7win] 23/12/2016 09:50

Thanks Nimrod, GMS has catching up to do, it may be a takeover candidate?All that capital spend now stops this year as they consolidate and pay down debt.

[nimrod22] 23/12/2016 09:46

GMS has not moved as much as I had hoped in the last month (previous post 30th Nov), though its a strong candidate to rise on the cyclical upturn and shake out which has started in the offshore sector.
Since mentioned in my my last post; Seacor CKH up 14%, Hunting HTG up 15%, Gulfmark up 56%.
Tidewater TDW (mentioned on 6th Dec post)up 61% in the month (up 215% in two months). TDW is probably still worth a punt if you catch it on the dips, despite the fact that it was heading towards chapter 11 recently.

[che7win] 23/12/2016 09:35

I haven't mentioned some of the US peer stocks, Nimrod mentions a few above, most up a good 50%

[che7win] 23/12/2016 09:27

Trident, They will be repriced, which is why EPS is forecast to fall from 10.65p this year to 3.58 next year.The gearing is high, the business just needs to tick along and keep utilisation as high as possible so not to breach covenants.They save clients money, bear that in mind compared to competition

[trident5] 23/12/2016 08:49

I think there's a muted price reaction to these contract wins because they're so short, and one wonders whether they're having to re-price to get the business. It's all about seeing these times through without a rights issue.

[che7win] 23/12/2016 07:43

Cw, It's the utilisation rates that are key, they will have fallen sharply from interims, which is why these contract wins are so important.Other comparators:Petrofac LtdWood Group Aker SolutionsCGGCGG-ADRHuntingLamprellPetroleum Geo-ServicesPetroleum Geo-Services-ADRSaipemSBM OffshoreSeadrillSubsea 7 SATechnipTecnicas ReunidaVallourec

[cw6365] 23/12/2016 02:06

SESV utilisation was 89% up to the interims but dropped to 78% for the 9 month period in the Q3 update. [1]

The last few days ups and downs have been liked to the oil news of OPEC (and others) agreement to reduce production levels but then countered with news from the US that they had an increase in stocks.

Che, who do you refer to as GMS's main rivals?


---

[1] GMS continues to focus on maximising vessel utilisation1
in the current market environment and
has achieved a utilisation level across the SESV fleet of 78% for the nine-month period to the
end of Q3 2016 (hxxp://www.gmsuae.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/GMS-Interim-Report-2016-web.pdf)
yard in Abu Dhabi, which represents a much lower cost compared to third party shipyards and
ports

[trident5] 22/12/2016 23:39

Any insights from your research you'd care to share Che?

[che7win] 22/12/2016 23:09

I have four GMS broker notes sitting here and had communications with the business on a number of occasions, how about you? Have you any idea why GMS utilisation of their rigs was 89% for a large part of the year and their rivals about 20% less for instance?

I have spent hours researching the company, the sector(up strongly since November), the rigs they use, the competition and their USP, how about you?

I have researched the oil sector, the fracking industry, the Middle East, how OPEC ticks and I've made money out of oil related stocks a number of times this year, how about you?

I guess it's my fault it's going up rather than down, what research have you done to say this is falling to 45p. Have you looked at the chart here, have you looked at sector related stocks and their charts?

I am well aware of the risks, how about you?

I'm always amazed how avatars can make judgements on other avatars based on the limited info posted, I hope your depth of research is not as superficial elsewhere (PMO/PTR).

[seangwhite] 22/12/2016 19:03

Che I admire your support for GMS but question it's depth and extent of research.

[che7win] 21/12/2016 16:11

Buys here all afternoon, pressure continues.

[che7win] 21/12/2016 14:37

Should get to 55p shortly with the demand.

[seangwhite] 21/12/2016 14:24

Looks like the seller has plenty of supply to hand so we could see 45p before new year in the quiet trading period.

[seangwhite] 20/12/2016 18:11

Finish of less than 50p and plenty of supply to keep it there.

[che7win] 20/12/2016 16:12

Chart looks strong here too.

[che7win] 20/12/2016 16:06

Excellent news!

The pressure has been building here for some time, nice punch through 50p.

[bsharman3] 20/12/2016 15:58

Great news! 2 new contracts for a large class vessel

[seangwhite] 20/12/2016 14:22

Looks like this one will do little share price wise till well into 17 and thats assuming POO keeps at or rises above current levels. Seems a sound and hopefully well run business just in the wrong sector for now.

VGLTA

[che7win] 19/12/2016 16:36

Close to breakthrough.

[che7win] 15/12/2016 16:42

71224 buy at the close, this is looking strong

[che7win] 15/12/2016 15:05

Multiple 21k and 15k buys, a bot buying here?

[che7win] 14/12/2016 16:03

Brent jumped, now blue

[che7win] 13/12/2016 14:15

A bit frustrating - deserves to be higher with the oil price steaming up.

[jamiemp] 13/12/2016 13:05

Absolute nightmare of an overhang at 50p: 250k+ of sell orders to clear.