 I completely understand the warrants. If as you suggest the outstanding warrant holders are all so keen to sell as soon as they get hold of the shares why are they waiting? They can convert today, they could have converted yesterday. They could have converted every yesterday since a couple of days after the warrants were issued. As you rightly say they could take their profits now, yesterday, 3 months ago, a year ago, whenever, yet they have chosen thus far not to. Crazy. Unless of course they intend to keep the converted shares, in which case converting at the last minute keeps the payment for the shares earning interest.
Of course we could get a conversion notice for some or all of the outstanding today, tomorrow or any day up to the deadline. I would not at all be surprised if there had been forward selling, and there could be more forward selling.
Your fear that the shares will be converted at the half year and be immediately offered to be sold irrespective of the share price at the time does not bear up to any scrutiny or evidence. The warrants will be converted, I'm pretty sure on that, so anyone doing their own calculations must sensibly be using the fully diluted share count.
I suspect those holding out to June to pick up shares at some perceived liquidity release will be in for a rude awakening. |
"""""34.2 million warrants were exercised, and 53.5 million shares were issued accordingly during the first 9 months of the year at the price of 5.75p per share. 53.4 million warrants potentially giving right to 83 million shares remain to be exercised up to June 30, 2025""""" This is separate to the Seafox distribution |
I don't think you understand. You're confusing warrants with distribution |
Nice to be up today on a tough market day |
Yet the share has closed above 17p on many days since the warrants were issued and only some have been cashed in. Indeed you are asking the wrong person as I don't hold any warrants. Ask yourself, or even better, an actual warrant holder, why they aren't taking their profits now in a click?I understand the fears, but the evidence isn't there. My shares are for sale at a price, so are everyone's. That is 100% of issued shares could be offered at any time. |
I said that's my biggest worry. Simple.If you had a bunch of warrants now you could buy for 5.75p and have an instant realisation of 17p you wouldn't take it? 200% gain in a click? |
mikeh30 - Tell me why warrants will convert at the last possible date and then immediately try to sell? They would be morons. Almost certainly the remainder have been traded, possibly several times, to a medium term holder. Otherwise they would have been converted just like the tranche in the summer. Any to be sold, i.e. to cover the cost of conversion, will be forward sold in the market.
The huge advantage to a long termer buying the warrants is they could take a big holding without disturbing the price of the shares.
I'll say this again because it bears emphasis - anyone intending to sell converted shares in the market at a price below 15p has had a whole literal year to do just that, take their profits and move on. They haven't, so they won't. They've either been short sold or will be held. |
Point being 15p seemed to be the floor for the Seafox distribution selling.What will the floor be for the 5.75p warrants |
My biggest worry is this churn comes to an end and they unleash 83 million shares from warrants at 5.75p |
111m shares traded in January, which is well over 10% of the fully diluted share count, and even more as a proportion of the shares currently in issue.
When I histogram over 1/3 of that volume is between 15.2 and 15.57p. The first decile is also popular, and the second moderately so. Thus 60% of the January volume was around the 15p mark. Interestingly above that is the bins zigzag showing clear signs of FOMO as price steps up including 8% above 18p. There is clearly significant demand / buying willingness at 16.5p and above.
This is pretty similar to October; 47% at the near identical bottom 3 deciles for example. Above that there is also step changes in volume.
Conclusions:
1. There is significant turnover in the book, by definition enough for sellers.
2. The Seafox distributee sellers are pretty amateur, or their brokers are.
3. Anyone wanting to sell warrants at these levels could be doing it now. Or they could have sold higher at plenty of times in the past. Because those owning the outstanding warrants haven't done that it would be perverse for them to do so come June.
4. When supply dries up there is plenty of demand to take prices higher.
5. Demand is ever more eager to step in as the Seafox distribution reaches its end.
6. There is a lot of trading going on outside of those selling their Seafox distribution. |
Seems someone already has the bin bag out! |
I wonder when the wet and dry hoover will arrive and take all those weak holders tears in to its tank?! |
Tbh I hope we get 15 again. Be great to add there |
being smashed again - I guess 15p on the cards |
I think it's the uncertainty of what Seafox will do with the remaining 5% (most likely sell down) plus the 83 million warrant shares.That's a 15% overhang to clear in reality before price discovery. |
They have been selling since the last RNS.
A big sigh on that RNS that the overhang continues. And yet, there should be a sense of relief that it is coming to an end. When someone steps in to clear the last of it, will they be scrambling to buy back in then?
Clearly it is one to nip in and out of as well, guilty of that, but curious to see price discovery after that overhang clears.
If the market drags it down more, maybe a quicker chance of clearing them out.
I'm holding and trading a few.
All imo
DYOR |
I think Seafox will go to zero. Why bother going from 30% to 5%. The intent is there.This needs to be flushed out and news of the 83million warrants getting placed somewhere will push this on |
I think weak holders is a misconception. Eager sellers is more appropriate and there is quite the difference. Weak holders are scared out by moves in the market whereas the sellers demanding the Seafox distribution are / were the market. I too am surprised at the relative lack of positive holding RNS thus far, which suggests a healthy well distributed shareholder base.
19.5p and 20p the upcoming resistance levels. Often one might fear stale bulls getting out flat but the 19.5p level was only just over 3 months ago and July's 7 months ago. These are not long time frames. Below is some trade data:
April 2024
2024-04-18 23.1 24.6 23.1 24.6 5431470 £1,336,141.62
2024-04-19 24.4 24.4 23.5 24 2755674 £661,361.76
2024-04-22 23.4 24.4 23.4 24.1 1226997 £295,706.28
June 2024
2024-06-21 18 19.2 18 19.2 1498737 £287,757.50
2024-06-24 18.75 19.1 18.75 19 828649 £157,443.31
2024-06-25 18.95 20.1 18.85 19.85 1545621 £306,805.77
2024-06-26 19.75 20.3 19.3 19.3 2861942 £552,354.81
2024-06-27 19.75 20.4 19.45 20 1846472 £369,294.40
October 2024
2024-10-16 17.95 19.2 17.75 19.05 9375838 £1,786,097.14
2 million shares is a pretty normal day, 22nd and 23rd Jan were truly exceptional. I'd guess there would be very little churn off the 16 October buyers. Obviously the period 15 Mar - 15 May has much larger turnover so the grind through the 20s will be harder. That said once people are ahead with a 12 month look back angst dissipates and holding, respecting one's original thesis becomes that much easier. |
AFAICS, Seafox held 10.4% (after the 11/11/24 TR1) and on 19/12/24 announced their intention to distribute a further 5.4% to its own shareholders.
After this morning's TR1 this would mean Seafox only have a further 0.85% to distribute, although they may decide to cut their stake still further of course. |
Feels like we could see an announcement in the other direction with the recent price move.
Looks like someone was happy to sit on the sidelines while the Seafox distributions landed with weak holders and drove the price down. |
That's the one.
Seafox cut down to 5.85% |
Yep, looking good. Decent early volumes once again too. |
Will soon be in the distance. |
Testing another key breakout point at 18p |
It looks like the buyer turned off the taps in the middle of the day to encourage the easily frit to give up their shares. Not much to pick up clearly. |
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