Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[habshan] 22/3/2024 08:07

If it went to arbitration in an international court all sorts of stuff would be dragged up including this which would be a complete and utter nightmare for the Federal Government:-

International Arbitrator Judge Stephen M. Schwebel.

"Schwebel's analysis meticulously dissects the 2005 Iraqi Constitution, affirming that the distribution of power heavily favours regional governments, like the KRG, over the Federal Government in matters of natural resource management. Central to his argument is the interpretation of Articles 110, 114, 115, and 121, which collectively do not grant the Federal Government exclusive authority over oil and gas resources. Instead, these articles empower regions to manage the production of oil and gas within their territories."

If it went to Arbitration the ICG would be stuffed as ALL regions in IRAQ, including Basra, are constitutionally empowered to manage the oil and gas resources within their borders.

[furenstaurus] 22/3/2024 08:02

https://x.com/111notout1/status/1771071873704448114?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw

[furenstaurus] 22/3/2024 08:02

https://x.com/goodnightcharl1/status/1771080760889377269?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw

[mad paul sh1t the bed] 22/3/2024 08:01

Thanks mate, I'll take that in the positive spirit it was intended.

If I may lower the tone for a moment, I don't really get all the hate that's aimed at Bigdog. A wise old uncle told me years back - 'son, if you are going to invest, follow the guys who have lost shedloads on a stock and do the opposite of what they say.'

It has worked a treat for me - a few months back, BD informed us he was in at circa £1.25 and expecting £1.50. I immediately went to cash and waited. Voila - back in at a pound a fortnight or so back! 👏

[furenstaurus] 22/3/2024 08:00

4% spread lol

[furenstaurus] 22/3/2024 07:59

https://x.com/111notout1/status/1771071873704448114?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw

[highlander7] 22/3/2024 07:55

Keep trying Paul even you will grow up one day.

Hopefully...

[mad paul sh1t the bed] 22/3/2024 07:47

Highlander - you make me want to become a better person. ♥️d83;️❤️

[r9505571] 22/3/2024 07:30

Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues miss analyst expectationsFull year 2023 results:Revenue: US$123.5m (down 73% from FY 2022).Net loss: US$11.5m (down 104% from profit in FY 2022).Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.7%.Revenue is forecast to grow 24% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.5% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom.

[beernut1] 22/3/2024 07:30

From yesterday

PM al-Sudani arrives in Erbil
Iraq
Breaking
Al-Sudani
PM al-Sudani arrives in Erbil
2024-03-21 12:59


Font
Shafaq News/ Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani has arrived in the capital city of the Kurdistan region, Erbil, for meetings with top officials.
Al-Sudani, according to sources, will hold a meeting with Prime Minister Masrour Barzani to discuss the salary issues of the public servants in the Region.
"He will later attend an Iftar in Mount Kurak. He is expected to deliver a speech there on the Newroz and the Kurdish new year," a source said.

[beernut1] 22/3/2024 07:13

Great work Habshan much appreciated by all.

[furenstaurus] 22/3/2024 07:12

https://x.com/111notout1/status/1771071873704448114?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw

[habshan] 22/3/2024 07:06

Presumably you are assuming the continuation of the present PSC terms hence the reference to arbitration or you are optimistic that the current terms ( or somewhere close) will continue.

Correct, the contracts and the Kurds right to enter into them have been ruled legal and Constitutional by the English High Court. The ICG have never challenged them in an international court because they know that that's a battle they can't win. The last thing the ICG want and can afford is to be taken to to the London Court of International Arbitration because all sorts of other things would be dragged up including the legallity of the Iraq Supreme Court which itself is unconstitutional.

If the contracts were illegal then it would be as if they had never been entered into in the first place and the ICG could just have had a new licensing round with new contracts and given the licenses to someone else, but they haven't because they know the contracts are legal and have sovereign immunity.

Jon Harris today - "We continue to strongly emphasise that the current economics in our Production Sharing Contract must be preserved and have received contract sanctity assurances from the KRG."

APIKUR - “Sanctity of contracts and clearly defined methods of past and future payments are essential for the resumption of full oil production and export by APIKUR member companies."

"As noted in APIKUR’s press release on 13 August 2023, these contractual entitlements are governed by English law with dispute resolution via international arbitration at the London Court of International Arbitration."

[bobaxe1] 22/3/2024 00:32

https://x.com/oilgastracker/status/1770807810361540641?s=46&t=KHNNXk1Nw1j5lyzHBSnKag

[milliecusto] 21/3/2024 21:33

Well looks like will drop under 100p tomorrow, a retest to 90p would suit as can top up, in the absent of concrete new, will drift imo

[arcadian] 21/3/2024 21:24

Habs

Where do your figures sit in the discussion about lifting and shifting costs/payments as seen by the Iraqi government? Presumably you are assuming the continuation of the present PSC terms hence the reference to arbitration or you are optimistic that the current terms ( or somewhere close) will continue.

[nestoframpers] 21/3/2024 19:36

Thanks Habshan great dig into the facts there .

[habshan] 21/3/2024 19:03

"Gross production averaged 49,165 bopd between 1 January and 24 March 2023, with the ramp-up of SH-16 and start-up of SH-17 driving production to highs of over 55,000 bopd on several days in March 2023."

With ramp up of Sh-16 and start up of Sh-17 we were producing over 55kbpd.

"Following the completion of SH-18, we released our drilling rig and suspended well workover activity. As it became apparent that pipeline exports were unlikely to resume in the short term, we suspended all expansion activity."

So Sh-18 was completed a year ago but not put into production because the pipeline was shut capex was stopped and it wasn't connected up.

So when we get back to producing for export that well can be connected up taking us to around 60kbpd.

That will potentially push the GKP net revenue up from $428 million pa at 55kbpd to $466 million.

"With the resumption of exports and normalisation of payments and arrears, GKP will consider incremental field investment to realise Shaikan's substantial potential and return to previous production levels."

Jon Harris tells us that when we start exporting again realised prices will more than double from the current $25, so let's say $60 a barrel. He also says that the field can currently produce 45kbpd.

So that means that when the pipeline opens we'd be able to go straight from the current $11.6 million a month or $139 million a year from local sales to:-

45kbpd x 30 days x $60 x 36%, which is $29.16 million a month or $350 million a year net to GKP.

And ramp it up from there to $466 million a year without needing to drill any new wells.

Let's hope we don't have to go to arbitration first.

[hugetakeaway] 21/3/2024 18:39

https://x.com/chicagojack5/status/1770792707792744632?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw."we see our share as fantastic value currently" @Gulf_Keystone CEO Me too..Will a Major make a move ?Is Jon communicating as best he is allowed?

[bigdog5] 21/3/2024 18:21

Just watched the presentation.

2 years away from trying to get back to plan!!!

Based on their history of plans not going as predicted (they either completely fail or take 6 times as long) should we expect many more years further out?

Another begging visit to the USA coming up to try and get the Yanks to put pressure on Baghdad!!

But why is this necessary when Queen lemming sarah tells all here that Epicure have Baghdad by the balls and are telling them how its gonna be?

Is she spouting porkies and inventing BS yet again?

[milliecusto] 21/3/2024 18:05

Revenue is not profit