Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigego5] 01/8/2021 17:10

Good afternoon schmucks.

[mrtoddkozel] 01/8/2021 16:15

Gulf Keystone announces the completion of an additional third party analysis of the gross oil in place resources resulting from the Shaikan-1 discovery well.  The Company has previously reported gross oil in place resources, on a P90 to P10 basis, of 1.9 to 7.4 billion barrels with a mean value of 4.2 billion barrels.  These values were the result of an independent, third party analysis conducted by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA) of Houston, Texas.  In order to reinforce the potential size of this world class oil discovery, the Company commissioned Ryder Scott, also of Houston, Texas to do an additional third party analysis, using all data available through November 30, 2010. The Ryder Scott results, for gross Total Petroleum-Initially-in-Place (PIIP), on the same P90 to P10 basis and using more conservative porosity and water saturation cutoffs, was 1.52 to 7.52 billion barrels of total PIIP with a mean of 4.04 billion barrels.  The full study is posted on the Company's website.

[mrtoddkozel] 01/8/2021 16:13

HTTPS://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1421746360345321473?s=19

[mrtoddkozel] 01/8/2021 16:13

#GKPThere's several paid sentiment bashers operating 24/7 across retail bulletin boards...LSE a scream currentlyHere's just SOME of the funds these brokers knockers have been helping to build huge stakes pre very obvious takeoverCouldn't make it up really ? HTTPS://t.co/Z88zToqHbm

[bigdog5] 01/8/2021 14:53

I don't have to habinaSCUM, I get the facts:-)

Massive costs coming down the line. Gas flaring problem that habinaSCUM and highlander7 stated clearly the company and hosts are not concerened about. I told you different:-) They have to sort in under 18 months. Consolidation?

CPR 505m GROSS and will it be subject of another downgrade?

Company can only account for 58% of the Gross number. Heavy oil worth far less than the new quality oil benchmark of $2. So around $1.2pb?

SP well overpriced now based on that. No interest in company, all those that were walked away, Majors continue to depart the last great frontier.

There's some facts for you fantasists.

[eddie47] 01/8/2021 11:52

Earnings/share approx $5 p.a.

[shortsqueezer] 01/8/2021 11:18

Thus making the path to 100k per day easy to finance. Just imagine what our divis would look like then

[habshan] 01/8/2021 10:45

Guypender - "Of course the fact is the company takes in over $200 MILLION each year. That’s a lot of money by any measure."

Last weeks May payment of $24 million (net), or $288 million a year was paid at $68.53 a barrel.

The average Brent price for June was $73.15 and in July was higher still.

Brent is currently at $76 a barrel and we'll soon be producing around 55kbpd.

We'll soon be taking in closer to $400 million a year.

Or double "a lot of money by any measure."

[steephill cove] 01/8/2021 10:38

First 5 promises delivered & 3 to go ;-)

[steephill cove] 01/8/2021 10:37

Jon Harris the new CEO of GKP is clearly a man on a mission.

That mission is to release the value in Shaikan & to increase the GKP SP, so that a hostile predator will have to pay fair market value.

He set his stall out from the get go, with a personal Director share purchase of 30000 GKP shares @ 171p per share on 14/4/21 costing him 51165 pounds sterling.

He put his money where his mouth was & immediately got skin into the game, no doubt influenced & advised too by fellow board members who had made astute GKP purchases in the prior year.

Garrett Soden (Non Executive Director) who purchased of 70000 GKP shares @ 92p per share on 15/7/2020 costing him 64666 pounds sterling & Ian Weatherdon (CFO) who purchased 50112 GKP shares @ 80p per share on 1/5/2020 costing him 39989 pounds sterling.

Jon Harris clearly saw value at 171p on 14/4/2021 & since then he has made fundamental decisions to drive the GKP share price forward.

1). Announcement of Dividend. Tick

2). Announcement of Special Dividend. Tick

3). Restart of GKP upgrade to 55000 BOPD. Tick

4). Bringing forward the delivery timeframe of the GKP BOPD upgrade. Tick

5). Setting out his ESG intention in respect of a reduction in Gas Flaring at Shaikan. Tick

6). Announcement of GKP share buyback of upto 10 percent of all stock, which will be retired from the marketplace.

7). Deliver 55000 BOPD by Q4 2021.

8). Set out his intention to accelerate the timeframe of the GKP Field Development Plan & the move to 75000 & then 110000 BOPD.

As a result GKP are now firmly in the shop window.

It is my belief that GKP have been carefully advised by Perella Weinberg & in particular Daniel Yergin, because GKP is clearly The Prize in Kurdistan.

A Supergiant onshore oilfield with one of the lowest lifting costs per barrel on the planet, namely $2.5 to $2.9/bbl gross unit Opex.

Indeed Perella Weinberg have a direct link with their former employee, Gabriel Papineau-Legris sitting as CCO sitting inside the GKP boardroom, (which ironically GKP do not openly state this link, in their Board & Management Senior Management biography for him on the company website) ;-)

International Oil Companies hands are being forced through competitive pressure & now they know it.

Peel Hunt setting a GKP buy target of 275 per share on 11/6/2021 is merely the opening gambit in the start of an overall GKP rerating.

IOCs have two clear choices.

Right now, they will have to pay a more appropriate rate for every GKP share they purchase daily on the sly, via a Concert Party approach & they will need to accelerate those GKP share purchases more quickly.

Or they delay & the overall cost of taking out GKP at a later stage will become far greater, through points 1 to 8 above, being underpinned by a rising oil barrel price & an ever tightening oil supply, as the world begins to start to unwind out of the COVID19 pandemic.

Former Senior GKP Board Members, have the inside track.

Their recent individual actions underpin the above.

Jon Ferrier ex CEO GKP (999453 GKP shares) now owns 0.46 percent of GKP.

Sami Zouari ex CFO GKP (861162 GKP shares) now owns 0.40 percent of GKP.

A hostile predators hand is being forced & that is another 0.86 percent of GKP, that will be safely held & they will not prise out until takeover.

Ex GKP CEO Jon Ferrier & ex GKP CFO Sami Zouari, were never really known for their urgency with GKP, but both have all of a sudden vested & taken GKP shares rather than huge personal tax paid cash windfalls.

They know things are hotting up.

Even more so, when not a single GKP current Board Director or an ex GKP Director Board member, has been allowed reinvest their dividends ;-)

So keen to vest, but so reluctant to reinvest. Why ;-)

New CEO Jon Harris has taken very positive steps, providing strategic clarity through visible leadership & first class communication press releases, that are clear & easy to understand.

PI investor confidence is returning & the GKP story is about to play out, before our very eyes to a successful conclusion.

[highlander7] 01/8/2021 06:00

So the 3 stooges say old information from TK is wrong yet old information from the original CPR is correct ? Bit of a logic bomb there boys and girl. Even Jon Ferrier acknowledged the 1st CPR to be ultra Conservative.

BTW I wonder who actually wrote that post ? Because it certainly wasnt Broadfraud.

IMO

[k4n4k] 31/7/2021 23:12

FBM..so about another 41 years then according to actuarial data 😆😆😆

[nestoframpers] 31/7/2021 22:37

'You can't miss at Shaikan'. That wasnt JG that was me. ;o)

[k4n4k] 31/7/2021 22:15

They've only skimmed the surface at Shaikan. 🤫

[habshan] 31/7/2021 20:56

Huge areas of the field both horizontally and vertically are still to be drilled and in wells that have been drilled they didn't test the most productive zones but only the marginal zones. A fact that was acknowledged by ERCE when they compiled their report.

And as the most productive zones weren't tested then ERCE couldn't audit them and therefore couldn't include them as reserves.

From the CPR:- "Within the Shaikan structure there are formations that are potentially hydrocarbon bearing that have not yet been penetrated by a well, or that have been penetrated by one or more wells, but have not been tested for the presence of moveable hydrocarbons and which are therefore prospective for further exploration."

Shaikan-4 - "It has very good flow rates from the different zones we’ve tested, in particular, as today’s announcement points out we only tested the zones that didn’t look so good on the logs, and yet we have achieved aggregate flow rates in excess of 14,000 barrels of oil per day. So even from the zones that didn’t look fantastic on the logs we are getting very good flow rates.”

So as ERCE say, the CPR only includes what was drilled and the zones that were tested

And how could it be otherwise.

[mrtoddkozel] 31/7/2021 20:14

Wood Mackenzie set minimum $8/boe Kurdistan heavy oil premium priceImplications=GKP TAKEOVER MINIMUM 25 QUIDFILL YER BOOTS

[broadford bay] 31/7/2021 19:16

"STOIIP is a method of estimating how much oil in a reservoir can be economically brought to the surface."

STOIIP, or STOOIP, is purely a Volumetric Estimate - it says NOTHING about the commerciality of bringing that oil to the surface.

The Competent Person (i.e. ERCE) is charged with determining the volumetrics and (amongst other things) estimating how much of that STOIIP can be commercially exploited - essentially by auditing the oil company's declared project.

GKP's Jurassic project has resulted in the Competent Person estimating STOIIP of ca 3.296BBL (above the OWC at 1350mSS, or the High Viscosity Zone at 1,450mSS)

The STOIIP of 2,159BBL (below the OWC at 1350mSS, or the High Viscosity Zone at 1,450mSS) appears to apply to the potential Matrix contribution.

Bearing in mind the underlying water issues, whether GKP will be able to fully monetize the Matrix is very much open to conjecture, so you chose whether to use the 3.296BBL or 3.296 + 2.159BBl. The fact is that the CPR has defined the 2P reserves (oil from that big STOIIP number that can be commercially exploited) as 505MMstb (or 585MMstb if you prefer to add in the 2C).

It might well appear to be about 10%, but not in the way some here interpret it.

[mrtoddkozel] 31/7/2021 16:50

Wood Mackenzie set minimum $8/boe Kurdistan heavy oil premium priceImplications=GKP TAKEOVER MINIMUM 25 QUIDFILL YER BOOTS