Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[habshan] 31/7/2021 20:56

Huge areas of the field both horizontally and vertically are still to be drilled and in wells that have been drilled they didn't test the most productive zones but only the marginal zones. A fact that was acknowledged by ERCE when they compiled their report.

And as the most productive zones weren't tested then ERCE couldn't audit them and therefore couldn't include them as reserves.

From the CPR:- "Within the Shaikan structure there are formations that are potentially hydrocarbon bearing that have not yet been penetrated by a well, or that have been penetrated by one or more wells, but have not been tested for the presence of moveable hydrocarbons and which are therefore prospective for further exploration."

Shaikan-4 - "It has very good flow rates from the different zones we’ve tested, in particular, as today’s announcement points out we only tested the zones that didn’t look so good on the logs, and yet we have achieved aggregate flow rates in excess of 14,000 barrels of oil per day. So even from the zones that didn’t look fantastic on the logs we are getting very good flow rates.”

So as ERCE say, the CPR only includes what was drilled and the zones that were tested

And how could it be otherwise.

[mrtoddkozel] 31/7/2021 20:14

Wood Mackenzie set minimum $8/boe Kurdistan heavy oil premium priceImplications=GKP TAKEOVER MINIMUM 25 QUIDFILL YER BOOTS

[broadford bay] 31/7/2021 19:16

"STOIIP is a method of estimating how much oil in a reservoir can be economically brought to the surface."

STOIIP, or STOOIP, is purely a Volumetric Estimate - it says NOTHING about the commerciality of bringing that oil to the surface.

The Competent Person (i.e. ERCE) is charged with determining the volumetrics and (amongst other things) estimating how much of that STOIIP can be commercially exploited - essentially by auditing the oil company's declared project.

GKP's Jurassic project has resulted in the Competent Person estimating STOIIP of ca 3.296BBL (above the OWC at 1350mSS, or the High Viscosity Zone at 1,450mSS)

The STOIIP of 2,159BBL (below the OWC at 1350mSS, or the High Viscosity Zone at 1,450mSS) appears to apply to the potential Matrix contribution.

Bearing in mind the underlying water issues, whether GKP will be able to fully monetize the Matrix is very much open to conjecture, so you chose whether to use the 3.296BBL or 3.296 + 2.159BBl. The fact is that the CPR has defined the 2P reserves (oil from that big STOIIP number that can be commercially exploited) as 505MMstb (or 585MMstb if you prefer to add in the 2C).

It might well appear to be about 10%, but not in the way some here interpret it.

[mrtoddkozel] 31/7/2021 16:50

Wood Mackenzie set minimum $8/boe Kurdistan heavy oil premium priceImplications=GKP TAKEOVER MINIMUM 25 QUIDFILL YER BOOTS

[habshan] 31/7/2021 16:27

"Where is it mentioned in any of the CPR's that 9.75% of the reservoir contains over 500 million barrels of 2p reserves habinaSCUM?"

You'll need to do what other people have done and work it out Sarah, so instead of asking other people to do these things for you let's see if you can do it.

Dig out and study the old 2016 CPR.

Take note of how many wells (eleven) were used by ERCE in their calculations.

You'll then need to look at the depths of those eleven wells and which zones were tested.

Then look at where those wells are located in plan.

Then compare that with the 280 squ km surface area of the field and the known depth of 2.5 km to the bottom of the Triassic, which gives 700 cubic km, with the Permian below that, so maybe 1,000 cubic kilometers of rock.

And see what you come up with.

But eleven 8" holes drilled into 1,000 cubic kilometers of rock isn't much is it Sarah.

Then compare your answer with the latest CPR update specifying over 500 million barrels of 2p reserves and the 2018 Corporate Presentation telling you that the "Jurassic alone represents a giant resource base. STOIIP - 5.5 billion barrels."

STOIIP - "STOIIP is a method of estimating how much oil in a reservoir can be economically brought to the surface."

So what does that work out at then Bigdog.

And if you get stuck I know your Uncle Tony will be happy to help.

But one thing I would add Sarah is this. If you think that at this stage in the development of the field you're going to get a definitive answer to the question of how much oil is contained within the Shaikan reservoir then you can forget it.

What you'll need to do is hang around for the next hundred years or so and by then the field will have been fully drilled fully developed fully assessed and fully quantified.

And then you'll have your answer.

[bigdog5] 31/7/2021 16:09

OfficeDigby no one needs to pay more than the current price as its way over the top now and £2ps would be seen to be a very expensive error imho.

[bigdog5] 31/7/2021 16:02

Latest CPR states GROSS 505m 2P which word has it will have to be massively reduced again.

Then to remember the company will only be able to count on 58% of the 505m simply because the MNR can "back in" for 35% of the number.

The heavy oil at shaiCON is API 11-17 whereas the new benchmark has been set by Total selling their API 36-39 oil at $2 per barrel and it could work out to be considerably less than that based on the deal's term. That obviously means that the shaiCON oil will attract a material discount and why it could be valued around the $1.2 per barrel mark.

All that adds up to a current share price well over the top and were anyone interested, there isn't, will know that.

It is clear that shaiCON has water, pressure, sulphur and gas flaring problems which are going to be extremely expensive to solve, even if they can be.

The hosts have always wanted consolidation and the order from the MNR for the oily's to fix the gas flaring problem in under 18 months means enormous costs for them all. Game changer?

The Major's have departed the last great frontier, they've obviously had enough. All the data from the Kozel days is BS, irrelevant and has been replaced.

DNO walked away after offering less than £1 and the Reserves have, like the field shrunk since back then and will have to shrink again. There is no interest in the licence. Even with a decent premium included no one needs to pay, if interested, any more than the current share price due to the massive costs coming down the tracks imho.

[bravedog] 31/7/2021 15:48

@ KURDMAN63

Agree with you that GKP will not be sold.

They will drag it out until 2022 and implement a second options program to replace the VCP.

And the Dutch must go before anything happens.

[bravedog] 31/7/2021 15:45

@ KURDMAN63

As usual, you never answers the question.

Still awaiting your answer.

[bigdog5] 31/7/2021 15:17

Where is it mentioned in any of the CPR's that 9.75% of the reservoir contains over 500 million barrels of 2p reserves habinaSCUM?

[mrtoddkozel] 31/7/2021 15:15

He's a pretty sad case H

[highlander7] 31/7/2021 15:10

Well after his obscene comments when Bob passed away he wont get any sympathy from me.

[mrtoddkozel] 31/7/2021 14:47

He is actually pretty poorly#NHScam

[mrtoddkozel] 31/7/2021 14:42

HTTPS://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1421226629137936390?s=19

[highlander7] 31/7/2021 14:30

Steep its always MacDonalds . They dont let thick chavs into the Dorchester. In any case I go there for lunch 2-3 times a year and always had to book ~ 3 months in advance.

[steephill cove] 31/7/2021 14:29

Talking of Shawn & the Dead & zombies, Bigdog5 has just turned up to keep Ed company, its a GKP plague I tell thee.

🧠 ☠️ x 2

[officerdigby] 31/7/2021 14:25

Seems like Kurdman going into ramp mode. GREAT.

Low single digits numbers, OK I'll accept 3, 4 and 5!

2.5 is a bit meh...

thanks

[bigdog5] 31/7/2021 14:23

Just look at all that desperate made up BS from habinaSCUM. Its hilarious the excuses and BS she comes out with.

I'm reminded of what the rampers "guru" was famous for inventing in support of their failed views, excuses and predictions and she is doing the same.

Its going to get even more amusing when the reality arrives for you BS clowns:-)

[steephill cove] 31/7/2021 14:22

Habshan & Highlander7, its not the Dorchester they take him to, its the Winchester, because Kurdman63 is about as literate as Ed at the end of Shawn of the Dead 🤣🤡🤣

[mrtoddkozel] 31/7/2021 13:33

HTTPS://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1421226629137936390?s=19

[beernut] 31/7/2021 13:23

Lollll

I see Tony’s getting another areshole ripped in him again.

Good work lads.