Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[chinese_takeaway] 11/11/2019 10:18

Stray cat sums it up well however , his numbers are under clubbed, when revenue hits 600m+ profits will be 460m plus plus it's just an enormous cash fruit machine.As peel Hun t spelt out clearly in their cap mkts research note: the most UNDERVALUED e and p on LSE Hey ho , not long to go :)StrayCat on lse : no brainer takeover, organic growth, nope!! The Real Investment Story.Today 07:48The full capex plan will take up to ten years to complete and will cost an estimated $1.34bn.Critically it depends on :-1) Full FPD approvals;2) Phase 1 results appraisal and phase 2 sanction;3) Sufficient available cash resources.This year we'll collect c.a. $200m in trade receipts.This despite severe production disruptions due to maintenance, reworks, upgrades and plant installations, all on the way to 55k bopd by Q2 next year.But if all we do for the next ten years is to continue to collect at $200m a year, receipts will still be more than enough to pay for the major production uplifts to 110k bopd.$600m more than enough.Of course it would also mean that $1.34bn had been wasted and no increases in production had been realised at all, (even though IN FACT we're already up to 40k bopd).So if we do perform according to plan, over the next ten years our cash receipts balloon through $300m per year to $500m as we achieve 75k bopd. Finally, at 110k bopd receipts would be staggering; in excess of $600m in 2027.The extraordinarily low lifting costs mean that much of that cash falls down to the bottom line with 2027 projections at 110k bopd of Revenues at $800M-$900M developing profits well over $200m.And we can argue the details and the assumptions made on these annual forecasts ad nauseam. No one can accurately forecast ten months out, let alone ten years. If it gives you any comfort do your own forecast.But that's not the point.Any way you look at the proposition realistically, it's a corporate dream coming true.Whether we're 'sold' or not it must be true that other and much larger interested parties will have run the same numbers and will have come to much the same conclusions purely on a forecast P&L Balance Sheet basis.They will have also developed sophisticated projections encompassing the full potential of Shaikan at much higher output levels, very different cash resources, and much compressed time scales.Wouldn't you?Yet JF has shown no real enthusiasm for making our case in the Markets. GKP have engaged in one Corporate Events Day and announced a new dividend policy.That's it.Why hide this potentially tremendous success story from the public gaze?The capex plans have been in train for years but have only been properly activated this year, though the cash build has been there for all to see.Even now those plans are already behind schedule.And he shows no enthusiasm at all for engaging in regular RNS updates on operational progress. Too often we are left to glean what we can from the RNS information GKP are required by law to provide.Why all the reticence?Why the obvious secrecy?What's really going on?Less than three weeks 'til Sami's official departure and no replacement anywhere to be found.Have a look at the Business Plan.Look at the investment scale.That needs heavyweight financial oversight.Where is it?Are we really going for organic growth?Or??????

[urals] 11/11/2019 10:09

StrayCat on lse : no brainer takeover, organic growth, nope!! The Real Investment Story.Today 07:48The full capex plan will take up to ten years to complete and will cost an estimated $1.34bn.Critically it depends on :-1) Full FPD approvals;2) Phase 1 results appraisal and phase 2 sanction;3) Sufficient available cash resources.This year we'll collect c.a. $200m in trade receipts.This despite severe production disruptions due to maintenance, reworks, upgrades and plant installations, all on the way to 55k bopd by Q2 next year.But if all we do for the next ten years is to continue to collect at $200m a year, receipts will still be more than enough to pay for the major production uplifts to 110k bopd.$600m more than enough.Of course it would also mean that $1.34bn had been wasted and no increases in production had been realised at all, (even though IN FACT we're already up to 40k bopd).So if we do perform according to plan, over the next ten years our cash receipts balloon through $300m per year to $500m as we achieve 75k bopd. Finally, at 110k bopd receipts would be staggering; in excess of $600m in 2027.The extraordinarily low lifting costs mean that much of that cash falls down to the bottom line with 2027 projections at 110k bopd of Revenues at $800M-$900M developing profits well over $200m.And we can argue the details and the assumptions made on these annual forecasts ad nauseam. No one can accurately forecast ten months out, let alone ten years. If it gives you any comfort do your own forecast.But that's not the point.Any way you look at the proposition realistically, it's a corporate dream coming true.Whether we're 'sold' or not it must be true that other and much larger interested parties will have run the same numbers and will have come to much the same conclusions purely on a forecast P&L Balance Sheet basis.They will have also developed sophisticated projections encompassing the full potential of Shaikan at much higher output levels, very different cash resources, and much compressed time scales.Wouldn't you?Yet JF has shown no real enthusiasm for making our case in the Markets. GKP have engaged in one Corporate Events Day and announced a new dividend policy.That's it.Why hide this potentially tremendous success story from the public gaze?The capex plans have been in train for years but have only been properly activated this year, though the cash build has been there for all to see.Even now those plans are already behind schedule.And he shows no enthusiasm at all for engaging in regular RNS updates on operational progress. Too often we are left to glean what we can from the RNS information GKP are required by law to provide.Why all the reticence?Why the obvious secrecy?What's really going on?Less than three weeks 'til Sami's official departure and no replacement anywhere to be found.Have a look at the Business Plan.Look at the investment scale.That needs heavyweight financial oversight.Where is it?Are we really going for organic growth?Or??????

[habshan] 11/11/2019 09:44

Oilman - "Now this is world class and it's not in Kurdistan 😱
50 billion recoverable 😱
China suddenly has other interest 😂"

"Iranian Oil Minister admits that the new oil field that President Rouhani boasted would supply 53 billion barrels will actually supply just over 2 billion barrels.
The oil minister said the site has 22 billion and only a tenth can be extracted."



A lot of people such as Religious clerics and Oilman, don't understand the difference between OIP and reserves.

[nestoframpers] 10/11/2019 22:43

then they can pass the HCl and get Shaikan sold off.

[nestoframpers] 10/11/2019 21:15

If ICG give the Kurds their budget share then the Kurds will have to give oil for SOMO to sell . ICG can then pay the foreign firms that lent the Kurds $$$s under a new arrangement .

[goatcam support] 10/11/2019 20:19

Goatcam Mint now offers commemorative coins celebrating the massive 2009 Shaikan discovery. Stamped with Todd's image these highly sought after coins represent the pinnacle of GKP investor collectables.

[goatcam support] 10/11/2019 20:01

GoatCam merchandise now offers free "Back2nature@SheikhAdi" coasters with all tankard orders.

[nestoframpers] 10/11/2019 19:45

Hope you went to Church today and got sore knees praying for a GKP TO JB.

[gkphero] 10/11/2019 19:36

Looks like GKP will be sold by Christmas Eve 2019.


Silent night, holy night,
Holders quake, at the price

[nestoframpers] 10/11/2019 19:03

tom_the_bomb

Posts: 442

Price: 223.50

No Opinion

RE: Registered companiesToday 18:25
“ And why do you think they have now been dissolved ?”

The first two because they have finally completed their removal from Algeria. What I found interesting was that Sami and Jon are no longer listed as directors of any company based on the Bermudan government website.

[nestoframpers] 10/11/2019 19:02

I'll take the Murray misery 200 K @ £1.80 tears tankard as well.

[nestoframpers] 10/11/2019 18:38

I'll have the Todd's tears Tankard.

[goatcam support] 10/11/2019 17:58

GoatCam merchandise now available. One pint bitter glass - Bigdog5 signature edition now in.

[urals] 10/11/2019 17:30

Chinese, correct, a classic pre Sale clean and tidy up confirmed by bondSan on lse..... when preparing a company for sale , you essentially groom it.you remove any longstanding legal issues, get rid of any non core obligations etc. More notable was the formal closure of the Algerian obligations, after 10Yrs plus!!.Its all part of prepping the company to be a clean simplified subsidiary,so that buyers have no surprises later.its just like doing a house up for sale, making sure it's safe clean and tidy It's the most obvious 3 yr, turnaround, tidy up and sale.And chairman told everyone in writing !

[urals] 10/11/2019 17:12

Courtesy bondsan lse, more evidence of the Company clean up and groom pre the very obvious takeover Bermuda subsidiariesToday 12:49Numidia - possibly a reference to former Gas license in Algeria - Numidia refers to ancient kingdom in AlgeriaGulf Keystone Petroleum HBH Limited - refers most likely to Hassi Ba Hamou (HBH) License GKP used to own in Algeria (2007 pre Kurd / Shaikan when RAK made a move to Take it over. Around the time GKP were partnered with BG on a Gas field with a few Tcf in placeShaikan Petroleum Limited - ? - fairly self explanatory - perhaps a vehicle to keep Shaikan stand alone from other potential Co. licenses / interests or ventures or possibly a vehicle to sell the Company . hopefully.

[mcfly02] 10/11/2019 16:48

Iran discovers new oil field that could boost reserves by a third, says President Rouhani
hxxp://news.sky.com/story/iran-discovers-new-oil-field-that-could-boost-reserves-by-a-third-says-president-rouhani-11858734

Now this is world class and it's not in Kurdistan 😱
50 billion recoverable 😱
China suddenly has other interest 😂

[goatcam support] 10/11/2019 15:36

GoatCam Office Admin places urgent order for more question marks and emojis!!! ;)

[roverite12] 10/11/2019 15:29

Bigdog5

10 Nov '19 - 00:11




-------------


LOL

Early start for the Dog5hite

Sunday is just another day for the skint loser


The OilyInfant is here as well I see



Broadfraud will be along shortly......no day off for the trolls I'm afraid , Fraudy !

[chinese_takeaway] 10/11/2019 14:35

£20-£200 Nestoframpers,when preparing a company for sale , you essentially groom it.you remove any longstanding legal issues, get rid of any non core obligations etc. More notable was the formal closure of the Algerian obligations, after 10Yrs plus!!.Its all part of prepping the company to be a clean simplified subsidiary,so that buyers have no surprises later.its just like doing a house up for sale, making sure it's safe clean and tidy It's the most obvious 3 yr, turnaround, tidy up and sale.And the chairman gas told everyone!!!

[nestoframpers] 10/11/2019 14:24

Makes a USA move on Iran more likely doesn't it ?

[mcfly02] 10/11/2019 14:23

The weekend ramp falls at the first fence 😱

From the LSE

Numidia - possibly a reference to former Gas license in Algeria - Numidia refers to ancient kingdom in Algeria

Gulf Keystone Petroleum HBH Limited - refers most likely to Hassi Ba Hamou (HBH) License GKP used to own in Algeria (2007 pre Kurd / Shaikan when RAK made a move to Take it over. Around the time GKP were partnered with BG on a Gas field with a few Tcf in place

Shaikan Petroleum Limited - ? - fairly self explanatory - perhaps a vehicle to keep Shaikan stand alone from other potential Co. licenses / interests or ventures or possibly a vehicle to sell the Company . hopefully.

............................

A few points to add.

Where is Sami originally from ???

Why did Jon and Sami attend Africa oil week ???

Weren't they looking for other possible options elsewhere because of lack of progress ???

Why did they take on a mergers and acquisitions specialist around that time ???

It all doesn't matter now because it's all water under the bridge and plans change.

GoatCam 🐐🎥®

[pensioner2] 10/11/2019 14:15

We need to be out of here before Christmas. The competition is hotting up:

[gkphero] 10/11/2019 14:02

Worst case here is £50+ per share.



(My secret target is around £152.74 per share though)