Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bigdog5] 29/1/2019 12:02

mcfly, with each of his many nicknames. I wonder if any potential investors have noticed that his nicknames post exactly the same BS. Rather advertises desperation to mislead.

[mcfly02] 29/1/2019 11:27

BigDog

History has proven time and time again who are the made up frauds are across social media.

Just little people trying to be something they are not and usually have some sort of inferiority complex.

Just like Paul who will post 3 times straight after this post.

[bigdog5] 29/1/2019 11:04

johnyboy finally came to his senses. But alas has in the period since the wipe out reverted to his previous form. Some never learn no matter how much help they receive.

johnbuysgkp
14 Jul '16 - 08:21 - 502729 of 578733
0   2  1

"Those who were right -

Oilman,
Dannyboy,
Fake,
NB,
Bigdog

Apologies to all"

[bigdog5] 29/1/2019 10:55

mcfly, his desperation to mislead knows no bounds. I would expect any potential serious investor to recognize his BS/spam and look elsewhere.

[asherspoodles] 29/1/2019 10:49

You're welcomeðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙💙💙No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKPÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxfgfde

[asherspoodles] 29/1/2019 10:49

You're welcomeðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙💙💙No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKPÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxdfff

[asherspoodles] 29/1/2019 10:48

You're welcomeðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙💙💙No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKPÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxjjhbh

[mcfly02] 29/1/2019 10:48

Good Morning BigDog 😃

White Goods Paul is currently blocked by 90% of the people who follow GKP on Twitter.

The sad thing is that he's voting up his own tweets.

Blogs are readable and useable if people press on his name and filter/block him.

[bigdog5] 29/1/2019 10:46

With the material fall in value of heavy oil as predicted by Opec due when the maritime rules change beginning of 2020 how will the Kurdy producers feel when the shaiCON heavy gets blended with their far better quality oil. Will they be happy that the blended oil will have far less value.

[asherspoodles] 29/1/2019 10:33

You're welcomeðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙💙💙No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKPÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxxx

[asherspoodles] 29/1/2019 10:33

You're welcomeðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙💙💙No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKPÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxx

[asherspoodles] 29/1/2019 10:32

ðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?💙💙💙No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKPÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxx

[bigdog5] 29/1/2019 10:31

There are new rules on marine fuels coming into affect from the start of 2020 that require ships to reduce the amount of sulphur in the fuels they use. That means ships will be prevented from running on HEAVY OIL. The ships will have to switch over to far better quality oil.

Its the sulphur what does it, innit. Doesn't shaiCON have heavy oil. I seem to recall Opec mentioning that heavy oil values would fall materially in favour of the better quality oil increasing.

You're welcome:-)