Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[asherspoodles] 28/1/2019 13:20

ZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzDirectors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™ðŸ'™ðŸ'™No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxx

[asherspoodles] 28/1/2019 13:20

XxxxDirectors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™ðŸ'™ðŸ'™No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxx

[asherspoodles] 28/1/2019 13:19

Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™ðŸ'™ðŸ'™No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxxxxxc

[bigdog5] 28/1/2019 13:18

The level of desperation hits new heights with the Northstar post. Almost 10 years old. It doesn't mention how important it was in allowing certain people to trough back then.

Ten years on and what's the position. Under 30k a day production, 58% to the company and ESP's required to move the heavy oil.

Is there a problem getting the CPR through. Is it a "believability" issue.

[asherspoodles] 28/1/2019 13:02

Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™ðŸ'™ðŸ'™No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxxxxxx

[asherspoodles] 28/1/2019 13:01

Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™ðŸ'™ðŸ'™No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxx

[asherspoodles] 28/1/2019 13:01

Xhxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-gkp/gulf-keystone-petroleum-sharesDirectors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™ðŸ'™ðŸ'™No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈xxxx

[bigdog5] 28/1/2019 12:54

Just for highlander7 as we know he misses everything but desperately clings onto any morsel of hope even though it wouldn't have any affect on his huge losses.

"New rules on ship emissions herald sea change for oil market".

"New rules coming into force from 2020 to curb pollution produced by the world’s ships are worrying everyone from OPEC oil producers to bunker fuel sellers and shipping companies".

Opec state heavy oil's value will fall materially.

You can clearly see the desperation when posters have to quote JG from years ago. Isn't it now widely accepted that he was talking through his hat as there hasn't been anything from the company to support his views.

[asherspoodles] 28/1/2019 11:00

XxXhxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-gkp/gulf-keystone-petroleum-sharesDirectors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKETâ?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™â?¤ï¸?â?¤ï¸?ðŸ'™ðŸ'™ðŸ'™No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all overFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled🎈

[mcfly02] 28/1/2019 09:30

But how much does the current CPR say is actually recoverable ???

Nowhere near that is it !

[nestoframpers] 28/1/2019 08:41

'There is 13 bill blls of movable oil in the Jurassic ' JG.

[mcfly02] 27/1/2019 23:08

And today in the real world they are producing 26k many years later 😱

[walval] 27/1/2019 22:35

Thanks to ccc on lse for reminding us of . . .

Northstar proves 10b discovery.Today 16:32hxxp://www.northstardst.com/case-studies-shaikan-discovery.aspx

This is case study on Shaikan 1 drill, it is an old report but might be of interest to some who either have not seen the report or trying to understand the Shaikan oil field potential.
This is only a report on the Jurassic.

SHAIKAN DISCOVERY
Northstar Proves 10 Billion Barrel Shaikan Discovery
Home Media Case Studies Northstar Proves 10 Billion Barrel Shaikan Discovery.

THE PROBLEM
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKPI) was managing the risk of drilling their first wild cat well in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. They were drilling in an unproven region with limited well data and required early indications of formation potential to support future planning. Initial plans called for a deep well in the Triassic and the Permian formations, however, during drilling there became evidence of other secondary targets. GKPI needed a flexible test package to properly evaluate each reservoirs potential and possible relation to each other.

OUR SOLUTION
Zones of interest in multiple hole sizes and behind multiple casing sizes necessitated a variety of drill stem test (DST) solutions on GKPI’s SH-1 well. Northstar was able to offer a variety of different testing operations at the well site.

Northstar conducted early open hole DSTs in both 12-1/4” and 8-1/2” hole sizes, testing the Jurassic (Shargelu, Mus & Buthmah) and Upper Triassic formations. Northtars was able to attain a benchmark flow rate and formation pressure in order to prove each formation’s potential in isolation before drilling fluid invasion influenced results. Stable carbonate formations and a salt-water mud system allowed open hole tests to be prolonged up to 54 hours (total flow and shut in time). Post DST gauge data confirmed interval isolation in the highly fractured carbonates was achieved on all open hole tests. In addition to extended open hole test times, Northstar was able to support an open hole acid stimulation job that cleaned up damage from drilling operations which significantly increased production flow rates. Northstar then used cased hole DST equipment combined with Tubing Conveyed Perforating (TCP) to perforate and test the Kurre Chine, Butmah and Mus targets behind both 7” and 9 5/8” casing. Further evaluation of the Mus zone was done using Northtar’s cased hole DST string in conjunction with artificial lift from an electrical submersible pump (ESP).

Northstar maintained a 100 per cent success rate, recovering valuable data from all nine DSTs using three different DST technologies with no misruns.

THE RESULTS
GKPI was able to successfully prove 2 mega structures representing over 10 billion barrels of oil.
Identification of a new reservoir (secondary Jurassic zone) resulting in an additional 7,000 bo/d.
Acid stimulation of the open hole well increased the daily production on this second zone.
Total proven reserves of 24,000 boe/d from the primary Triassic target and 7,000 bo/d from the secondary Jurassic zone.

[habshan] 27/1/2019 20:57

Bigdog - "If anyone was interested in shaiCON's very heavy oil"

Stockport Loser - "What about the high sulphur?"

"Complex high-conversion refineries can make more money from heavy sour crude than light sweet crude since they can crack the heavy bottoms into the good stuff (diesel and gasoline).
The world's refineries are becoming increasingly complex, particularly in the US and Asia. These complex facilities are specifically designed for a heavier feedstock. That drives up demand for heavy sour crude, just like the oil produced in Alberta.
The exploding supply of light shale oil and declining output of heavy oil from Mexico and Venezuela means US refineries are becoming increasingly more reliant on Canadian heavy oil and have no need to import light oil from anywhere."