Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[asherspoodles] 25/1/2019 14:10

X😊No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all over ðŸ‘Å'ðŸÅ'‹ðŸ˜ŠFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a still very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled

[asherspoodles] 25/1/2019 14:10

😊No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all over ðŸ‘Å'ðŸÅ'‹ðŸ˜ŠFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a still very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubledX

[asherspoodles] 25/1/2019 14:10

😊No FY report will be required if they delist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing regsNeither party wants that, and dec31 2018 was the perfect completion watershed.So it's very nearly all over ðŸ‘Å'ðŸÅ'‹ðŸ˜ŠFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP’s working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCE’s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying _zzzPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.It is here in full:hxxps://peelhunt.s3.amazonaws.com/MNI_73978__1.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAIH3MLUOYW47IPD5A%2F20190125%2Fus-east-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190125T000000Z&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Signature=bfeaa9d3fa3802e32e9fc21ccedeb6a56d5bf16ba70f8cedc96f442f32fe7c3b&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a still very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubledX

[mcfly02] 25/1/2019 14:01

I'm holding onto my belly laughing at you 😂😂😂

[nestoframpers] 25/1/2019 13:44

I hold for £74 .

[gkphero] 25/1/2019 10:01

We all hold for at least £63.75p per share with GKP.

[grafter] 25/1/2019 01:44

buy buy oil

[stockport loser] 24/1/2019 22:24

Surrey Scot of course is the lse alter ego of highlander who fled from this bb after typogate. He's a grade one Muppet who claims 30 years industry expirience given his time selling 3 for a quid chocolate bars at various Shell garages on the M3.

[roverite12] 24/1/2019 21:07

Johnbuy and 1712 - you're both amateurs when it comes to talking up GKP .

The doggie's got you both beat !


Anyhow , goodnight all .....I'm off to dream about the doggie's £2k a share .

[roverite12] 24/1/2019 21:01

Here's one of my favourite Dog5hite posts .....even CJ gets a mention here .......and the great BBBS . (Along with someone called bobobob...)

Nice one , doggie ........now what would £20 + ps work out at these days ....? Two grand a share ? LOL








"Mr R/1waving. I'm not discounting the possibility of the massive numbers for one nano. bobobob has posted the volumetrics several times and 50b at Shaikan and even BBBS's 100b is possible.


If they can then we move into Chicago Jack's ballpark of SP's at £20ps+. At that point I would be very surprised if there wasn't JV's set up to take us out. And lets face it, there's enough of em we could share it out to."

[roverite12] 24/1/2019 20:53

As usual ....all Dog5hite's figures were PRE restructure so can be multiplied by a hundred or so to get a current valuation .

Remember - this is the bloke who stated for over 5 years that GKP was worth more than NINETEEN BILLION DOLLARS . At a time when we hadn't produced one single barrel of oil !

The infantile Oily creep disagreed , though .......he said we were worth MORE ! MUCH MORE !